Kasımpaşa 1-1 Beşiktaş – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beşiktaş at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Kasımpaşa face Beşiktaş.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Kasımpaşa welcome Beşiktaş to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu in Süper Lig (matchday 30). Kick-off is Monday 7 April 2025 at 19:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Kasımpaşa have gone 5W 2D 3L — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: L D L W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Kasımpaşa at home: 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Beşiktaş stand at 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Beşiktaş's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 5D 3L (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Kasımpaşa at 1.70 PPG versus Beşiktaş's 2.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Kasımpaşa's last 10 home games and Beşiktaş's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 6 H2H matches we hold have produced 4 wins for Kasımpaşa, 2 for Beşiktaş and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 6 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 2 Nov 2024, ended Kasımpaşa 3–1 Beşiktaş — a Kasımpaşa win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Kasımpaşa in-play tendencies (last 65 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 26 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Beşiktaş in-play tendencies (last 65 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Kasımpaşa 66% and Beşiktaş 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kasımpaşa 66% | Beşiktaş 46%). Note also that Beşiktaş surrender HT leads in 29% of cases while Kasımpaşa recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 42% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 1.50 xG and Beşiktaş 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 1.238 / defence 1.362 | Beşiktaş attack 1.011 / defence 0.751. League average goals — home 1.615 / away 1.203. Beşiktaş bring a tight defence (rating 0.751, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Kasımpaşa's projected output down. Kasımpaşa's defence rating of 1.362 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Beşiktaş's projected output up. Data: built from Kasımpaşa's last 66 games and Beşiktaş's last 65.
Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 35% | Draw 24% | Beşiktaş 41%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 2.88 | Draw 4.18 | Beşiktaş 2.42. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.50 / 1.66) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Beşiktaş as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Beşiktaş offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.16 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Kasımpaşa's last 10 home games and Beşiktaş's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Kasımpaşa 70% (last 10 home games) | Beşiktaş 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 30 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 7 April 2025 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 35% | Draw 24% | Beşiktaş 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG Kasımpaşa 1.50 / Beşiktaş 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Kasımpaşa attack 1.238 / def 1.362 | Beşiktaş attack 1.011 / def 0.751 | league avg home 1.615 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Kasımpaşa xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Beşiktaş xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş FAQs
What time does Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş kick off?
Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Monday 7 April 2025 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş?
Kasımpaşa 1 - 1 Beşiktaş.
Where is Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş part of?
Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 30) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş?
Our statistical model gives Kasımpaşa a 35% chance of winning, Beşiktaş a 41% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Kasımpaşa and Beşiktaş will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Kasımpaşa's attack rating (1.24) and Beşiktaş's defence rating (0.75), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Beşiktaş's attack versus Kasımpaşa's defence, projects 1.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Kasımpaşa's last 66 games and Beşiktaş's last 65 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
35%
2.88
24%
4.18
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Kasımpaşa xG
Total xG
3.16
1.66
Beşiktaş xG
2.88
35%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.71
Clean Sheet
19%
5.24
22%
4.49
Win to Nil
7%
15.12
9%
10.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 7.0 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 10.6 | 8.8 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.9 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Kasımpaşa and Beşiktaş expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Kasımpaşa and 1.66 for Beşiktaş, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Kasımpaşa come into this having played 65 games, going 24W 19D 22L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-W.
On the other side, Beşiktaş sit at 1.58 PPG from 65 outings (29W 16D 20L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kasımpaşa on 1.40 PPG, Beşiktaş on 1.58. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Kasımpaşa's home form reads 12W 9D 10L across their last 31 home games, a 1.45 PPG return.
Away from home, Beşiktaş have taken 1.19 points per game from their last 31 away games (9W 10D 12L).
The Goals Picture
Kasımpaşa are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Beşiktaş are on 1.43 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kasımpaşa have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Defensively: Beşiktaş in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 65 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kasımpaşa
Current Season
Beşiktaş
Blended
Kasımpaşa (Home) vs Beşiktaş (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Kasımpaşa
Current Season
Beşiktaş
Blended
❓ Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş Form FAQs
What form are Kasımpaşa and Beşiktaş in coming into this match?
Kasımpaşa have gone 24W 19D 22L in their last 65 games (1.40 PPG), while Beşiktaş have gone 29W 16D 20L in their last 65 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kasımpaşa at home or Beşiktaş away?
Kasımpaşa's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kasımpaşa at home: 1.45 PPG; Beşiktaş away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Kasımpaşa or Beşiktaş been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kasımpaşa have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Beşiktaş in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2022. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was as recently as 1 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 25 Apr 2022, when Kasımpaşa won Beşiktaş 0-3 Kasımpaşa.
Kasımpaşa's record when hosting Beşiktaş specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Kasımpaşa
3
Draws
3
Beşiktaş
Recent Meetings
❓ Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Beşiktaş?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Kasımpaşa have won 4, Beşiktaş have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Kasımpaşa and Beşiktaş last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 November 2026: Kasımpaşa 2-2 Beşiktaş.
Who has won more matches between Kasımpaşa and Beşiktaş?
Kasımpaşa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kasımpaşa 68%, Beşiktaş 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Kasımpaşa) and 45% (Beşiktaş). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 16% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kasımpaşa home games / Beşiktaş away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Kasımpaşa vs Beşiktaş Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Kasımpaşa and Beşiktaş matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Kasımpaşa's games and 58% of Beşiktaş's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Kasımpaşa and Beşiktaş matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Kasımpaşa's matches and 45% of Beşiktaş's.
Do Kasımpaşa and Beşiktaş matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 84% of Kasımpaşa's recent matches and 84% of Beşiktaş's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kasımpaşa and Beşiktaş share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 30, as Kasımpaşa and Beşiktaş drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 1.50 xG and Beşiktaş 1.66 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 1.24 / defence 1.36 against Beşiktaş attack 1.01 / defence 0.75, drawn from 66/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 35% | Draw 24% | Beşiktaş 41%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 66%, Beşiktaş 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (65 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Beşiktaş's trading profile (65 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kasımpaşa 1.40 PPG, Beşiktaş 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.