Hatayspor 1-1 Pendikspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hatayspor at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hatayspor vs Pendikspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Mersin Stadyumu plays host to Hatayspor versus Pendikspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Saturday 13 January 2024 at 10:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Hatayspor have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hatayspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hatayspor's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Mersin Stadyumu this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Hatayspor are significantly better at Mersin Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Pendikspor (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Pendikspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pendikspor away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.60 for Hatayspor, 0.80 for Pendikspor — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Hatayspor register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Pendikspor in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Hatayspor 1W, Pendikspor 0W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 6.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 12 Aug 2023, ended 5–1 with Hatayspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Hatayspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 0% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Pendikspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hatayspor 58% and Pendikspor 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hatayspor 58% | Pendikspor 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hatayspor 2.30 xG and Pendikspor 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hatayspor attack 1.001 / defence 1.093 | Pendikspor attack 0.928 / defence 1.529. League average goals — home 1.503 / away 1.281. Pendikspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.529 — this is suppressing Hatayspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 55 Hatayspor games / 19 Pendikspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hatayspor 59% | Draw 22% | Pendikspor 20%. Fair-value odds: Hatayspor 1.69 | Draw 4.55 | Pendikspor 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Hatayspor (59%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.60. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.60 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.30 / 1.30) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hatayspor at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.60 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Hatayspor 70% | Pendikspor 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hatayspor vs Pendikspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Mersin Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Jan 2024, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hatayspor 59% | Draw 22% | Pendikspor 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 67% | xG Hatayspor 2.30 / Pendikspor 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Hatayspor attack 1.001 / def 1.093 | Pendikspor attack 0.928 / def 1.529 | league avg home 1.503 / away 1.281 • Poisson stance: Hatayspor (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.30
Hatayspor xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Pendikspor xG
67%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hatayspor vs Pendikspor kick off?
Hatayspor vs Pendikspor kicked off at 10:30 on Saturday 13 January 2024 at Mersin Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Hatayspor vs Pendikspor?
Hatayspor 1 - 1 Pendikspor.
Where is Hatayspor vs Pendikspor being played?
The match is being played at Mersin Stadyumu.
What competition is Hatayspor vs Pendikspor part of?
Hatayspor vs Pendikspor is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Hatayspor vs Pendikspor?
Our statistical model gives Hatayspor a 59% chance of winning, Pendikspor a 20% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Hatayspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hatayspor vs Pendikspor?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Hatayspor and Pendikspor will score (BTTS).
Will Hatayspor vs Pendikspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Pendikspor?
Record (1 meetings): Hatayspor 1W | Draws 0 | Pendikspor 0W.
What form are Hatayspor and Pendikspor in?
Hatayspor (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Pendikspor (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Hatayspor's attack at 1.00x the league average against Pendikspor's defence at 1.53x — combine the two and it projects 2.30 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Pendikspor's attack (0.93x) against Hatayspor's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 55/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.2%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hatayspor Win
59%
1.70
22%
4.60
20%
5.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.2%
Draw
2 – 0
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.30
Hatayspor xG
Total xG
3.60
1.30
Pendikspor xG
1.70
59%
Home win
4.60
22%
Draw
5.12
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
2.99
Clean Sheet
27%
3.67
10%
9.97
Win to Nil
16%
6.24
2%
51.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 8.2 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.4 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 7.2 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hatayspor vs Pendikspor?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Hatayspor and Pendikspor expected to score?
The model projects 2.30 expected goals for Hatayspor and 1.30 for Pendikspor, a combined total of 3.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Hatayspor vs Pendikspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Hatayspor come into this having played 19 games, going 4W 8D 7L for 1.05 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-D. The sample for Hatayspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Pendikspor sit at 0.79 PPG from 19 outings (3W 6D 10L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Pendikspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.05 PPG for Hatayspor against 0.79 for Pendikspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Hatayspor's home form reads 3W 4D 2L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.44 PPG return.
Away from home, Pendikspor have taken 0.89 points per game from 9 outings (2W 2D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hatayspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Hatayspor are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Pendikspor are on 1.05 scored and 2.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pendikspor in 68%.
Last 19 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hatayspor
Blended
Pendikspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hatayspor and Pendikspor in coming into this match?
Hatayspor have gone 4W 8D 7L in their last 19 games (1.05 PPG), while Pendikspor have gone 3W 6D 10L in their last 19 (0.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hatayspor at home or Pendikspor away?
Hatayspor's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hatayspor at home: 1.44 PPG; Pendikspor away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Hatayspor or Pendikspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hatayspor have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Pendikspor in 5%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 January 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Hatayspor
1
Draws
0
Pendikspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Pendikspor?
From 2 meetings on record, Hatayspor have won 1, Pendikspor have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hatayspor and Pendikspor last play each other?
They last met on 13 January 2024, when Hatayspor 1-1 Pendikspor.
Who has won more matches between Hatayspor and Pendikspor?
Hatayspor have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Pendikspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 78% for Hatayspor, 78% for Pendikspor — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for Hatayspor and 78% for Pendikspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hatayspor home games / Pendikspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hatayspor play Pendikspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Hatayspor's games and 78% of Pendikspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hatayspor vs Pendikspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of Hatayspor's matches and 78% of Pendikspor's.
Do Hatayspor and Pendikspor tend to score early?
Hatayspor have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Pendikspor in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hatayspor and Pendikspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hatayspor and Pendikspor finished level at 1-1 at Mersin Stadyumu, Regular Season - 20, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hatayspor 2.30 xG and Pendikspor 1.30 xG, a combined 3.60. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Hatayspor fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hatayspor attack 1.00 / defence 1.09 against Pendikspor attack 0.93 / defence 1.53, drawn from 55/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hatayspor 59% | Draw 22% | Pendikspor 20%, with Hatayspor to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hatayspor 58%, Pendikspor 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hatayspor's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Pendikspor's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hatayspor 1.05 PPG, Pendikspor 0.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Pendikspor (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.44 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.