Gaziantep FK 3-0 Başakşehir – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Gaziantep FK at 44%, yet in-form Başakşehir provide a compelling counter-argument — this Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Başakşehir travel to Gaziantep Stadyumu to take on Gaziantep FK in Süper Lig (matchday 13). The game is scheduled for Saturday 23 November 2024 at 13:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Gaziantep FK have gone 2W 3D 5L — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D D W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home, Gaziantep FK have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Gaziantep FK are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Başakşehir — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L D L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Başakşehir's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Başakşehir are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
Başakşehir have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the 5 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Gaziantep FK.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 24 Feb 2024, ended Gaziantep FK 0–2 Başakşehir — a Başakşehir win.
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
In-Play Data
Gaziantep FK trading profile (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Başakşehir trading profile (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gaziantep FK 55% versus Başakşehir 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gaziantep FK 53% | Başakşehir 39%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Gaziantep FK surrender their half-time lead 38% of the time, while Başakşehir have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 43% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gaziantep FK 1.43 xG and Başakşehir 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gaziantep FK attack 0.977 / defence 0.876 | Başakşehir attack 0.964 / defence 0.981. League average goals — home 1.493 / away 1.293. Data: built from Gaziantep FK's last 49 games and Başakşehir's last 49.
Result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 44% | Draw 29% | Başakşehir 27%. Fair-value odds: Gaziantep FK 2.30 | Draw 3.44 | Başakşehir 3.64. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gaziantep FK are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Başakşehir (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gaziantep FK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 54% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Gaziantep FK 50% (last 10 home games) | Başakşehir 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 13 | Venue: Gaziantep Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 23 November 2024 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 44% | Draw 29% | Başakşehir 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Gaziantep FK 1.43 / Başakşehir 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Gaziantep FK attack 0.977 / def 0.876 | Başakşehir attack 0.964 / def 0.981 | league avg home 1.493 / away 1.293 • Poisson stance: Gaziantep FK (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Gaziantep FK xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Başakşehir xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir FAQs
What time does Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir kick off?
Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 23 November 2024 at Gaziantep Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir?
Gaziantep FK 3 - 0 Başakşehir.
Where is Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir being played?
The match is being played at Gaziantep Stadyumu.
What competition is Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir part of?
Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 13) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir?
Our statistical model gives Gaziantep FK a 44% chance of winning, Başakşehir a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Gaziantep FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Gaziantep FK and Başakşehir will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Gaziantep FK's attack rating (0.98) and Başakşehir's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Başakşehir's attack versus Gaziantep FK's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Gaziantep FK's last 49 games and Başakşehir's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.9%), 0-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gaziantep FK Win
44%
2.30
29%
3.44
27%
3.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Gaziantep FK xG
Total xG
2.52
1.09
Başakşehir xG
2.30
44%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
3.64
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
24%
4.18
Win to Nil
15%
6.84
7%
15.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 8.8 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.5 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.0 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Gaziantep FK and Başakşehir expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Gaziantep FK and 1.09 for Başakşehir, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 49 outings, Gaziantep FK have picked up 1.14 PPG on a 15W 11D 23L record — D-D-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Başakşehir's form line: 22W 11D 16L from 49 games, 1.57 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-D.
Put side by side, Başakşehir are the form team by 0.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Gaziantep FK.
Venue Form
On home soil, Gaziantep FK have posted 1.33 PPG from their last 24 home games (8W 8D 8L).
On the road, Başakşehir have gone 10W 5D 9L from their last 24 away games — 1.46 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Gaziantep FK are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Başakşehir are on 1.51 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 49 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gaziantep FK
Blended
Başakşehir
Blended
Gaziantep FK (Home) vs Başakşehir (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Gaziantep FK
Blended
Başakşehir
Blended
❓ Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir Form FAQs
What form are Gaziantep FK and Başakşehir in coming into this match?
Gaziantep FK have gone 15W 11D 23L in their last 49 games (1.14 PPG), while Başakşehir have gone 22W 11D 16L in their last 49 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gaziantep FK at home or Başakşehir away?
Başakşehir's away record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gaziantep FK at home: 1.33 PPG; Başakşehir away: 1.46 PPG.
Have Gaziantep FK or Başakşehir been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gaziantep FK have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Başakşehir in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from February 2022. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was as recently as 18 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Başakşehir have won each of the latest 4 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 22 Dec 2025, when Başakşehir won Başakşehir 5-1 Gaziantep FK.
Gaziantep FK's record when hosting Başakşehir specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Gaziantep FK
1
Draws
8
Başakşehir
Recent Meetings
❓ Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Gaziantep FK and Başakşehir?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Gaziantep FK have won 1, Başakşehir have won 8, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Gaziantep FK and Başakşehir last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 October 2026: Başakşehir 2-1 Gaziantep FK.
Who has won more matches between Gaziantep FK and Başakşehir?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gaziantep FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gaziantep FK 50%, Başakşehir 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Gaziantep FK) and 42% (Başakşehir).
On the defensive side: Gaziantep FK have failed to score in 29% of games; Başakşehir in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gaziantep FK home games / Başakşehir away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Gaziantep FK vs Başakşehir Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Gaziantep FK and Başakşehir matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Gaziantep FK's recent matches and 46% of Başakşehir's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Gaziantep FK and Başakşehir matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Gaziantep FK's recent games and 42% of Başakşehir's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gaziantep FK and Başakşehir matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Gaziantep FK's recent matches and 62% of Başakşehir's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Gaziantep FK run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Başakşehir.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gaziantep FK beat Başakşehir 3-0 at Gaziantep Stadyumu, Regular Season - 13, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gaziantep FK 1.43 xG and Başakşehir 1.09 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Gaziantep FK beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Başakşehir landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gaziantep FK attack 0.98 / defence 0.88 against Başakşehir attack 0.96 / defence 0.98, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gaziantep FK 44% | Draw 29% | Başakşehir 27%, with Gaziantep FK to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gaziantep FK 53%, Başakşehir 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gaziantep FK's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Başakşehir's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Başakşehir arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 1.14. Form was overturned, with Gaziantep FK winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Gaziantep FK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Başakşehir (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.