Gaziantep FK 0-1 Ankaragücü – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gaziantep FK at 36% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Gaziantep FK face Ankaragücü.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Ankaragücü travel to Kalyon Stadyumu to take on Gaziantep FK in Süper Lig (matchday 13). The game is scheduled for Saturday 25 November 2023 at 13:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Gaziantep FK stand at 5W 0D 5L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Gaziantep FK's form when playing at home: 3W 0D 7L across their last 10 home games (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.90 lags behind their overall 1.50 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Ankaragücü — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Ankaragücü away from home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Gaziantep FK 1.50 PPG, Ankaragücü 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Gaziantep FK, 0 for Ankaragücü and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.5 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 28 Jan 2023, ended Gaziantep FK 2–0 Ankaragücü — a Gaziantep FK win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Gaziantep FK trading profile (last 47 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Ankaragücü trading profile (last 47 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gaziantep FK 40% versus Ankaragücü 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gaziantep FK 60% | Ankaragücü 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gaziantep FK 1.47 xG and Ankaragücü 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gaziantep FK attack 0.858 / defence 0.995 | Ankaragücü attack 1.196 / defence 1.145. League average goals — home 1.492 / away 1.222. Data: built from Gaziantep FK's last 47 games and Ankaragücü's last 48.
Result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 36% | Draw 28% | Ankaragücü 36%. Fair-value odds: Gaziantep FK 2.74 | Draw 3.63 | Ankaragücü 2.78. The model can't separate the sides — both are rated at 36% to win, with the draw at 28%. There is no result lean here.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.47 / 1.46) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model can't separate the sides — Gaziantep FK 36% and Ankaragücü 36%, with the draw at 28%. There is no result lean from the model; the goals and BTTS markets below are where it has a view.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.92 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Gaziantep FK's last 10 home games and Ankaragücü's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Gaziantep FK 10% (last 10 home games) | Ankaragücü 70% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gaziantep FK vs Ankaragücü | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 13 | Venue: Kalyon Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 25 November 2023 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gaziantep FK 36% | Draw 28% | Ankaragücü 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Gaziantep FK 1.47 / Ankaragücü 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Gaziantep FK attack 0.858 / def 0.995 | Ankaragücü attack 1.196 / def 1.145 | league avg home 1.492 / away 1.222 • Poisson stance: no clear lean — Gaziantep FK and Ankaragücü level at 36% — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Gaziantep FK xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Ankaragücü xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Gaziantep FK vs Ankaragücü FAQs
What time does Gaziantep FK vs Ankaragücü kick off?
Gaziantep FK vs Ankaragücü kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 25 November 2023 at Kalyon Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Gaziantep FK vs Ankaragücü?
Gaziantep FK 0 - 1 Ankaragücü.
Where is Gaziantep FK vs Ankaragücü being played?
The match is being played at Kalyon Stadyumu.
What competition is Gaziantep FK vs Ankaragücü part of?
Gaziantep FK vs Ankaragücü is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 13) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Gaziantep FK vs Ankaragücü?
Our statistical model gives Gaziantep FK a 36% chance of winning, Ankaragücü a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Gaziantep FK vs Ankaragücü?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Gaziantep FK and Ankaragücü will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Gaziantep FK vs Ankaragücü have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Gaziantep FK's attack rating (0.86) and Ankaragücü's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ankaragücü's attack versus Gaziantep FK's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Gaziantep FK's last 47 games and Ankaragücü's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Gaziantep FK Win
36%
2.74
28%
3.63
36%
2.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Gaziantep FK xG
Total xG
2.92
1.46
Ankaragücü xG
2.74
36%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
2.78
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
23%
4.28
23%
4.33
Win to Nil
9%
11.74
8%
12.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 7.8 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.5 | 8.4 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.4 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Gaziantep FK vs Ankaragücü Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Gaziantep FK vs Ankaragücü?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Gaziantep FK and Ankaragücü expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Gaziantep FK and 1.46 for Ankaragücü, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Gaziantep FK vs Ankaragücü?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Gaziantep FK's recent record stands at 11W 7D 29L from 47 games, a 0.85 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-W in the last five.
Ankaragücü, meanwhile, have gone 15W 9D 23L across 47 games — 1.15 PPG, with W-L-W-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gaziantep FK on 0.85 PPG, Ankaragücü on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Gaziantep FK have managed 6W 4D 12L from their last 22 home games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ankaragücü's away record stands at 7W 4D 11L across their last 22 away games, a 1.14 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Gaziantep FK are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Ankaragücü are on 1.30 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ankaragücü in 64%.
Last 47 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gaziantep FK
Blended
Ankaragücü
Blended
Gaziantep FK (Home) vs Ankaragücü (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Gaziantep FK
Blended
Ankaragücü
Blended
❓ Gaziantep FK vs Ankaragücü Form FAQs
What form are Gaziantep FK and Ankaragücü in coming into this match?
Gaziantep FK have gone 11W 7D 29L in their last 47 games (0.85 PPG), while Ankaragücü have gone 15W 9D 23L in their last 47 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gaziantep FK at home or Ankaragücü away?
Ankaragücü's away record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gaziantep FK at home: 1.00 PPG; Ankaragücü away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2022. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent in our data was on 13 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ankaragücü have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Gaziantep FK's record when hosting Ankaragücü specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Gaziantep FK
0
Draws
2
Ankaragücü
Recent Meetings
❓ Gaziantep FK vs Ankaragücü H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Gaziantep FK and Ankaragücü?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Gaziantep FK have won 2, Ankaragücü have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Gaziantep FK and Ankaragücü last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 April 2024: Ankaragücü 3-1 Gaziantep FK.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gaziantep FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Ankaragücü are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gaziantep FK 46%, Ankaragücü 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Gaziantep FK and 59% for Ankaragücü. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 14% and 18% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Gaziantep FK have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gaziantep FK home games / Ankaragücü away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Gaziantep FK vs Ankaragücü Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Gaziantep FK and Ankaragücü matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of Gaziantep FK's games and 68% of Ankaragücü's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Gaziantep FK and Ankaragücü matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Gaziantep FK's matches and 59% of Ankaragücü's.
Do Gaziantep FK and Ankaragücü matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 60% of Gaziantep FK's recent matches and 62% of Ankaragücü's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ankaragücü defy the odds to beat Gaziantep FK 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ankaragücü beat Gaziantep FK 0-1 at Kalyon Stadyumu, Regular Season - 13, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gaziantep FK 1.47 xG and Ankaragücü 1.46 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Gaziantep FK fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gaziantep FK attack 0.86 / defence 0.99 against Ankaragücü attack 1.20 / defence 1.15, drawn from 47/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gaziantep FK 36% | Draw 28% | Ankaragücü 36%, with Gaziantep FK to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Ankaragücü win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gaziantep FK 60%, Ankaragücü 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gaziantep FK's trading profile (47 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ankaragücü's trading profile (47 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gaziantep FK 0.85 PPG, Ankaragücü 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ankaragücü win broke the near-deadlock. Gaziantep FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line. Ankaragücü (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.