Fatih Karagümrük 0-1 Kasımpaşa – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Kasımpaşa at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fatih Karagümrük vs Kasımpaşa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 5 as Fatih Karagümrük welcome Kasımpaşa to Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 13 September 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Fatih Karagümrük — All Games: 1W 0D 2L from 3 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L W. They are averaging 0.67 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Fatih Karagümrük have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kasımpaşa stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Kasımpaşa have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Kasımpaşa's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Fatih Karagümrük at 1.00 PPG versus Kasımpaşa's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Fatih Karagümrük, 1 for Kasımpaşa and 2 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 Feb 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Fatih Karagümrük in-play and half-time data (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
Kasımpaşa in-play and half-time data (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fatih Karagümrük 33% versus Kasımpaşa 67%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Fatih Karagümrük 67% | Kasımpaşa 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fatih Karagümrük 1.08 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.720 / defence 1.182 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.029 / defence 1.086. League average goals — home 1.383 / away 1.300. Fatih Karagümrük's attack strength of 0.720 is below the league average — the 1.08 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 3 Fatih Karagümrük games / 39 Kasımpaşa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 24% | Draw 28% | Kasımpaşa 47%. Fair-value odds: Fatih Karagümrük 4.17 | Draw 3.57 | Kasımpaşa 2.13. Kasımpaşa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kasımpaşa at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kasımpaşa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.66 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Fatih Karagümrük 33% | Kasımpaşa 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fatih Karagümrük vs Kasımpaşa | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Sep 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 24% | Draw 28% | Kasımpaşa 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Fatih Karagümrük 1.08 / Kasımpaşa 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.720 / def 1.182 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.029 / def 1.086 | league avg home 1.383 / away 1.300 • Poisson stance: Kasımpaşa (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Kasımpaşa xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fatih Karagümrük vs Kasımpaşa kick off?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Kasımpaşa kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 13 September 2025 at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium.
What was the final score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Kasımpaşa?
Fatih Karagümrük 0 - 1 Kasımpaşa.
Where is Fatih Karagümrük vs Kasımpaşa being played?
The match is being played at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium.
What competition is Fatih Karagümrük vs Kasımpaşa part of?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Kasımpaşa is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fatih Karagümrük vs Kasımpaşa?
Our statistical model gives Fatih Karagümrük a 24% chance of winning, Kasımpaşa a 47% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Kasımpaşa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Kasımpaşa?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Fatih Karagümrük and Kasımpaşa will score (BTTS).
Will Fatih Karagümrük vs Kasımpaşa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Kasımpaşa?
Record (6 meetings): Fatih Karagümrük 3W | Draws 2 | Kasımpaşa 1W.
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Kasımpaşa in?
Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 1W-0D-2L in 3 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W. Kasımpaşa (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Fatih Karagümrük's attacking strength (0.72x league average) is weighed against Kasımpaşa's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.08. The same calculation in reverse, Kasımpaşa's attack versus Fatih Karagümrük's defence, projects 1.58 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.5%), 1-2 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kasımpaşa Win
24%
4.08
28%
3.56
47%
2.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Total xG
2.66
1.58
Kasımpaşa xG
4.08
24%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
2.11
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
21%
4.86
34%
2.95
Win to Nil
5%
19.84
16%
6.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 11.0 | 8.7 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.9 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.4 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fatih Karagümrük vs Kasımpaşa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Fatih Karagümrük and Kasımpaşa expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Fatih Karagümrük and 1.58 for Kasımpaşa, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Fatih Karagümrük vs Kasımpaşa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Fatih Karagümrük's recent record stands at 1W 0D 2L from 3 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Kasımpaşa, meanwhile, have gone 0W 0D 3L across 3 games — 0.00 PPG, with L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fatih Karagümrük by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kasımpaşa heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
Fatih Karagümrük are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Kasımpaşa are on 1.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kasımpaşa in 67%.
Last 3 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fatih Karagümrük
Early Season
Kasımpaşa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Kasımpaşa in coming into this match?
Fatih Karagümrük have gone 1W 0D 2L in their last 3 games (1.00 PPG), while Kasımpaşa have gone 0W 0D 3L in their last 3 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 16 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Kasımpaşa have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Jun 2023, when Fatih Karagümrük won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fatih Karagümrük's record when hosting Kasımpaşa specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Fatih Karagümrük
2
Draws
3
Kasımpaşa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Kasımpaşa?
From 8 meetings on record, Fatih Karagümrük have won 3, Kasımpaşa have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fatih Karagümrük and Kasımpaşa last play each other?
They last met on 16 February 2026, when Kasımpaşa 3-2 Fatih Karagümrük.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fatih Karagümrük 33%, Kasımpaşa 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Fatih Karagümrük and 67% for Kasımpaşa. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fatih Karagümrük have failed to score in 67% of games; Kasımpaşa in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fatih Karagümrük home games / Kasımpaşa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fatih Karagümrük play Kasımpaşa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Fatih Karagümrük's recent matches and 67% of Kasımpaşa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fatih Karagümrük vs Kasımpaşa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Fatih Karagümrük's matches and 67% of Kasımpaşa's.
Do Fatih Karagümrük and Kasımpaşa tend to score early?
Fatih Karagümrük have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Kasımpaşa in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Kasımpaşa edge out Fatih Karagümrük 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kasımpaşa beat Fatih Karagümrük 0-1 at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fatih Karagümrük 1.08 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.58 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Fatih Karagümrük fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.72 / defence 1.18 against Kasımpaşa attack 1.03 / defence 1.09, drawn from 3/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fatih Karagümrük 24% | Draw 28% | Kasımpaşa 47%, with Kasımpaşa to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fatih Karagümrük 67%, Kasımpaşa 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 67% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Fatih Karagümrük arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with Kasımpaşa winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Fatih Karagümrük conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Kasımpaşa conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.