Fatih Karagümrük 0-2 Göztepe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Göztepe at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fatih Karagümrük vs Göztepe encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Göztepe travel to Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı to take on Fatih Karagümrük. The game is scheduled for Friday 22 August 2025, 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fatih Karagümrük stand at 0W 0D 1L from 1 Süper Lig matches — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 3.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Fatih Karagümrük have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Göztepe — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Göztepe have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Göztepe away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Göztepe are 1.50 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Fatih Karagümrük, 0 for Göztepe and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 May 2022, ended 3–1 with Fatih Karagümrük winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fatih Karagümrük 1.14 xG and Göztepe 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.861 / defence 1.150 | Göztepe attack 1.193 / defence 0.951. League average goals — home 1.397 / away 1.245. Data: 1 Fatih Karagümrük games / 38 Göztepe games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 26% | Draw 24% | Göztepe 51%. Fair-value odds: Fatih Karagümrük 3.85 | Draw 4.17 | Göztepe 1.96. Göztepe hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Göztepe as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Göztepe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.85 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fatih Karagümrük vs Göztepe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı • Kick-off: Friday 22 Aug 2025, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 26% | Draw 24% | Göztepe 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG Fatih Karagümrük 1.14 / Göztepe 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.861 / def 1.150 | Göztepe attack 1.193 / def 0.951 | league avg home 1.397 / away 1.245 • Poisson stance: Göztepe (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Expected Goals
1.71
Göztepe xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fatih Karagümrük vs Göztepe kick off?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Göztepe kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 22 August 2025 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What was the final score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Göztepe?
Fatih Karagümrük 0 - 2 Göztepe.
Where is Fatih Karagümrük vs Göztepe being played?
The match is being played at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What competition is Fatih Karagümrük vs Göztepe part of?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Göztepe is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fatih Karagümrük vs Göztepe?
Our statistical model gives Fatih Karagümrük a 26% chance of winning, Göztepe a 51% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Göztepe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Göztepe?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Fatih Karagümrük and Göztepe will score (BTTS).
Will Fatih Karagümrük vs Göztepe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Göztepe?
Record (2 meetings): Fatih Karagümrük 2W | Draws 0 | Göztepe 0W.
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Göztepe in?
Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 3.00 | L5 L. Göztepe (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Fatih Karagümrük's attack at 0.86x the league average against Göztepe's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Göztepe's attack versus Fatih Karagümrük's defence, projects 1.71 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/38 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Göztepe Win
26%
3.92
24%
4.18
51%
1.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Total xG
2.85
1.71
Göztepe xG
3.92
26%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
1.98
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
18%
5.52
32%
3.14
Win to Nil
5%
21.61
16%
6.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 9.9 | 8.4 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.3 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fatih Karagümrük vs Göztepe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Fatih Karagümrük and Göztepe expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Fatih Karagümrük and 1.71 for Göztepe, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Fatih Karagümrük vs Göztepe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 1 outings, Fatih Karagümrük have picked up 0.00 PPG on a 0W 0D 1L record — L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Göztepe's form line: 0W 1D 0L from 1 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D. It's still early in the season for Göztepe, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Göztepe are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Fatih Karagümrük.
The Goals Picture
Fatih Karagümrük are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game recently; Göztepe are on 0.00 scored and 0.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fatih Karagümrük have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Göztepe in 0%.
Defensively: Göztepe in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fatih Karagümrük
Early Season
Göztepe
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Göztepe in coming into this match?
Fatih Karagümrük have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while Göztepe have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 (1.00 PPG).
Have Fatih Karagümrük or Göztepe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fatih Karagümrük have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Göztepe in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fatih Karagümrük and Göztepe runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Göztepe have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Fatih Karagümrük's record when hosting Göztepe specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Fatih Karagümrük
0
Draws
2
Göztepe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Göztepe?
From 4 meetings on record, Fatih Karagümrük have won 2, Göztepe have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Fatih Karagümrük and Göztepe last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Göztepe 2-1 Fatih Karagümrük.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fatih Karagümrük home games / Göztepe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fatih Karagümrük play Göztepe?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Fatih Karagümrük's recent matches and 0% of Göztepe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fatih Karagümrük vs Göztepe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of Fatih Karagümrük's recent games and 0% of Göztepe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fatih Karagümrük and Göztepe tend to score early?
Fatih Karagümrük have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Göztepe in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Göztepe cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Fatih Karagümrük.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Göztepe beat Fatih Karagümrük 0-2 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, Regular Season - 3, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fatih Karagümrük 1.14 xG and Göztepe 1.71 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Fatih Karagümrük fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Göztepe attack 1.19 / defence 0.95, drawn from 1/38 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Fatih Karagümrük 26% | Draw 24% | Göztepe 51%, with Göztepe to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fatih Karagümrük 100%, Göztepe 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Göztepe arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Fatih Karagümrük conceded 2 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line. Göztepe scored 2 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.