Fatih Karagümrük 1-2 Fenerbahçe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Fenerbahçe (45%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Fatih Karagümrük face Fenerbahçe.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Fatih Karagümrük and Fenerbahçe meet at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı in Süper Lig (matchday 32). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 14 April 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Current Form
Fatih Karagümrük's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Fatih Karagümrük at home: 5W 4D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Fatih Karagümrük are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Fenerbahçe have collected 2.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 9W 1D 0L. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Fenerbahçe have gone 9W 1D 0L in their last 10 away fixtures (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
Fenerbahçe arrive in superior form — a 1.90 PPG advantage (2.80 vs 0.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head sample leans to Fenerbahçe, who have 3 wins from 5 H2H matches compared to 0 for the hosts, with 2 draws.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.4 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 26 Nov 2023, ended Fatih Karagümrük 1–2 Fenerbahçe — a Fenerbahçe win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Fenerbahçe have won 3 of 5 H2H matches, and at 3.4 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading
Fatih Karagümrük half-time and goal-timing data (last 67 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Fenerbahçe half-time and goal-timing data (last 67 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 73%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fatih Karagümrük 58% versus Fenerbahçe 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fatih Karagümrük 57% | Fenerbahçe 70%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Fatih Karagümrük surrender their half-time lead 35% of the time, while Fenerbahçe have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 73% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fatih Karagümrük 1.13 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.083 / defence 0.837 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.528 / defence 0.717. League average goals — home 1.460 / away 1.215. Fenerbahçe bring a tight defence (rating 0.717, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Fatih Karagümrük's projected output down. Fenerbahçe have an above-average attack rating of 1.528, which lifts their away xG to 1.55. Data: built from Fatih Karagümrük's last 67 games and Fenerbahçe's last 67.
Result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 26% | Draw 29% | Fenerbahçe 45%. Fair-value odds: Fatih Karagümrük 3.90 | Draw 3.40 | Fenerbahçe 2.22. Fenerbahçe hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fenerbahçe are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fenerbahçe if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.69 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Fatih Karagümrük's last 10 home games and Fenerbahçe's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Fatih Karagümrük 40% (last 10 home games) | Fenerbahçe 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fatih Karagümrük vs Fenerbahçe | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 32 | Venue: Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı • Kick-off: Sunday 14 April 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 26% | Draw 29% | Fenerbahçe 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Fatih Karagümrük 1.13 / Fenerbahçe 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.083 / def 0.837 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.528 / def 0.717 | league avg home 1.460 / away 1.215 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Fenerbahçe xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Fatih Karagümrük vs Fenerbahçe FAQs
What time does Fatih Karagümrük vs Fenerbahçe kick off?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Fenerbahçe kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Sunday 14 April 2024 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What was the final score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Fenerbahçe?
Fatih Karagümrük 1 - 2 Fenerbahçe.
Where is Fatih Karagümrük vs Fenerbahçe being played?
The match is being played at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What competition is Fatih Karagümrük vs Fenerbahçe part of?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Fenerbahçe is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 32) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fatih Karagümrük vs Fenerbahçe?
Our statistical model gives Fatih Karagümrük a 26% chance of winning, Fenerbahçe a 45% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Fenerbahçe?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Fatih Karagümrük and Fenerbahçe will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Fatih Karagümrük vs Fenerbahçe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Fatih Karagümrük's attack rating (1.08) and Fenerbahçe's defence rating (0.72), the model arrives at 1.13 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fenerbahçe's attack (1.53x) against Fatih Karagümrük's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 1.55.
These ratings are built from Fatih Karagümrük's last 67 games and Fenerbahçe's last 67 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
26%
3.90
29%
3.40
45%
2.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Total xG
2.69
1.55
Fenerbahçe xG
3.90
26%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
2.22
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
21%
4.74
32%
3.11
Win to Nil
5%
18.47
14%
6.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 10.6 | 8.2 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 12.0 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.8 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Fatih Karagümrük vs Fenerbahçe Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Fatih Karagümrük vs Fenerbahçe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Fatih Karagümrük and Fenerbahçe expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Fatih Karagümrük and 1.55 for Fenerbahçe, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Fatih Karagümrük vs Fenerbahçe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 67 outings, Fatih Karagümrük have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 20W 21D 26L record — D-L-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Fenerbahçe's form line: 51W 9D 7L from 67 games, 2.42 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Fenerbahçe are the form team by 1.21 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Fatih Karagümrük.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Fatih Karagümrük have posted 1.52 PPG from their last 33 home games (13W 11D 9L).
On the road, Fenerbahçe have gone 26W 4D 3L from their last 33 away games — 2.48 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Fatih Karagümrük are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Fenerbahçe are on 2.54 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: Fenerbahçe in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 67 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fatih Karagümrük
Current Season
Fenerbahçe
Current Season
Fatih Karagümrük (Home) vs Fenerbahçe (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Fatih Karagümrük
Current Season
Fenerbahçe
Current Season
❓ Fatih Karagümrük vs Fenerbahçe Form FAQs
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Fenerbahçe in coming into this match?
Fatih Karagümrük have gone 20W 21D 26L in their last 67 games (1.21 PPG), while Fenerbahçe have gone 51W 9D 7L in their last 67 (2.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fatih Karagümrük at home or Fenerbahçe away?
Fenerbahçe's away record (2.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fatih Karagümrük at home: 1.52 PPG; Fenerbahçe away: 2.48 PPG.
Have Fatih Karagümrük or Fenerbahçe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fatih Karagümrük have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Fenerbahçe in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between Fatih Karagümrük and Fenerbahçe, the earliest from December 2021. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was on 13 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fatih Karagümrük have gone 1W 1D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Fenerbahçe — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Fatih Karagümrük
2
Draws
5
Fenerbahçe
Recent Meetings
❓ Fatih Karagümrük vs Fenerbahçe H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Fenerbahçe?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Fatih Karagümrük have won 1, Fenerbahçe have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fatih Karagümrük and Fenerbahçe last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 March 2026: Fatih Karagümrük 2-0 Fenerbahçe.
Who has won more matches between Fatih Karagümrük and Fenerbahçe?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 35% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 83% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fatih Karagümrük 58%, Fenerbahçe 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Fatih Karagümrük) and 58% (Fenerbahçe). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fatih Karagümrük keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Fenerbahçe in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fatih Karagümrük home games / Fenerbahçe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Fatih Karagümrük vs Fenerbahçe Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Fatih Karagümrük and Fenerbahçe matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Fatih Karagümrük's recent matches and 48% of Fenerbahçe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Fatih Karagümrük and Fenerbahçe matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Fatih Karagümrük's matches and 58% of Fenerbahçe's.
Do Fatih Karagümrük and Fenerbahçe matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of Fatih Karagümrük's recent matches and 69% of Fenerbahçe's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fenerbahçe edge out Fatih Karagümrük 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fenerbahçe beat Fatih Karagümrük 1-2 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, Regular Season - 32, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fatih Karagümrük 1.13 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.55 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.08 / defence 0.84 against Fenerbahçe attack 1.53 / defence 0.72, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fatih Karagümrük 26% | Draw 29% | Fenerbahçe 45%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fatih Karagümrük 57%, Fenerbahçe 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 2.42 PPG against 1.21. That form edge translated into the three points. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.