Fatih Karagümrük 0-2 Başakşehir – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Başakşehir at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fatih Karagümrük vs Başakşehir fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Fatih Karagümrük host Başakşehir at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 17 September 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Fatih Karagümrük — All Games: 1W 0D 3L from 4 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 0.75 points per game. Last five: L L W L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.75 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Fatih Karagümrük have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Başakşehir stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Başakşehir have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Başakşehir away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.75 PPG (Fatih Karagümrük) versus 1.10 (Başakşehir). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Fatih Karagümrük: 3 wins from 6 previous clashes against 0 for Başakşehir, with 3 draws across those contests.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Jan 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The historical record gives Fatih Karagümrük a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Fatih Karagümrük in-play and half-time data (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 75% of games.
Başakşehir in-play and half-time data (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fatih Karagümrük 25% versus Başakşehir 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Fatih Karagümrük 50% | Başakşehir 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fatih Karagümrük 0.89 xG and Başakşehir 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.599 / defence 1.134 | Başakşehir attack 1.061 / defence 1.129. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.239. Fatih Karagümrük's attack strength of 0.599 is below the league average — the 0.89 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 4 Fatih Karagümrük games / 39 Başakşehir games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 22% | Draw 27% | Başakşehir 51%. Fair-value odds: Fatih Karagümrük 4.55 | Draw 3.70 | Başakşehir 1.96. Başakşehir hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Başakşehir at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Başakşehir offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.38 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Fatih Karagümrük 25% | Başakşehir 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fatih Karagümrük vs Başakşehir | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı • Kick-off: Wednesday 17 Sep 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 22% | Draw 27% | Başakşehir 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 46% | xG Fatih Karagümrük 0.89 / Başakşehir 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.599 / def 1.134 | Başakşehir attack 1.061 / def 1.129 | league avg home 1.312 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Başakşehir xG
46%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fatih Karagümrük vs Başakşehir kick off?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Başakşehir kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 17 September 2025 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What was the final score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Başakşehir?
Fatih Karagümrük 0 - 2 Başakşehir.
Where is Fatih Karagümrük vs Başakşehir being played?
The match is being played at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı.
What competition is Fatih Karagümrük vs Başakşehir part of?
Fatih Karagümrük vs Başakşehir is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Fatih Karagümrük vs Başakşehir?
Our statistical model gives Fatih Karagümrük a 22% chance of winning, Başakşehir a 51% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Başakşehir?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Fatih Karagümrük and Başakşehir will score (BTTS).
Will Fatih Karagümrük vs Başakşehir have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Başakşehir?
Record (6 meetings): Fatih Karagümrük 3W | Draws 3 | Başakşehir 0W.
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Başakşehir in?
Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 1W-0D-3L in 4 | 0.75 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.75 | L5 L-L-W-L. Başakşehir (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Fatih Karagümrük's attacking strength (0.60x league average) is weighed against Başakşehir's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.89. The same calculation in reverse, Başakşehir's attack versus Fatih Karagümrük's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.2%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
22%
4.59
27%
3.64
51%
1.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
0 – 2
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Fatih Karagümrük xG
Total xG
2.38
1.49
Başakşehir xG
4.59
22%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
1.97
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
23%
4.44
41%
2.43
Win to Nil
5%
20.37
21%
4.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 13.8 | 10.3 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.3 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 5.4 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fatih Karagümrük vs Başakşehir?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Fatih Karagümrük and Başakşehir expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Fatih Karagümrük and 1.49 for Başakşehir, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Fatih Karagümrük vs Başakşehir?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 4 outings, Fatih Karagümrük have picked up 0.75 PPG on a 1W 0D 3L record — L-L-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Başakşehir's form line: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games, 0.50 PPG, last five L-D-D-L. It's still early in the season for Başakşehir, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fatih Karagümrük on 0.75 PPG, Başakşehir on 0.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Fatih Karagümrük are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Başakşehir are on 0.50 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fatih Karagümrük have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games.
Last 4 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fatih Karagümrük
Early Season
Başakşehir
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fatih Karagümrük and Başakşehir in coming into this match?
Fatih Karagümrük have gone 1W 0D 3L in their last 4 games (0.75 PPG), while Başakşehir have gone 0W 2D 2L in their last 4 (0.50 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Başakşehir go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Fatih Karagümrük's record when hosting Başakşehir specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Fatih Karagümrük
3
Draws
2
Başakşehir
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fatih Karagümrük and Başakşehir?
From 8 meetings on record, Fatih Karagümrük have won 3, Başakşehir have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Fatih Karagümrük and Başakşehir last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Başakşehir 2-1 Fatih Karagümrük.
Who has won more matches between Fatih Karagümrük and Başakşehir?
Fatih Karagümrük have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Başakşehir see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fatih Karagümrük 25%, Başakşehir 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Fatih Karagümrük) and 25% (Başakşehir).
On the defensive side: Fatih Karagümrük have failed to score in 75% of games; Başakşehir in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fatih Karagümrük home games / Başakşehir away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fatih Karagümrük play Başakşehir?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Fatih Karagümrük's recent matches and 50% of Başakşehir's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fatih Karagümrük vs Başakşehir usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Fatih Karagümrük's recent games and 25% of Başakşehir's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fatih Karagümrük and Başakşehir tend to score early?
Fatih Karagümrük have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Başakşehir in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Başakşehir cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Fatih Karagümrük.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Başakşehir beat Fatih Karagümrük 0-2 at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, Regular Season - 1, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fatih Karagümrük 0.89 xG and Başakşehir 1.49 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Fatih Karagümrük fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.60 / defence 1.13 against Başakşehir attack 1.06 / defence 1.13, drawn from 4/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fatih Karagümrük 22% | Draw 27% | Başakşehir 51%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fatih Karagümrük 50%, Başakşehir 25%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 75% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Başakşehir's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fatih Karagümrük 0.75 PPG, Başakşehir 0.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Başakşehir win broke the near-deadlock. Başakşehir scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.