Eyüpspor vs Konyaspor – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Konyaspor at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Eyüpspor vs Konyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 33 sees Konyaspor travel to to take on Eyüpspor. The game is scheduled for Sunday 16 May 2027, 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Eyüpspor — All Games: 1W 0D 9L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 0.30 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.30 goals per game and conceding 2.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.80 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Eyüpspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Eyüpspor at this season: 3W 0D 7L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 0.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Eyüpspor are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Konyaspor stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D D L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Konyaspor have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Konyaspor are 0.50 PPG ahead (0.80 vs 0.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Eyüpspor, 2 for Konyaspor and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Jan 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Eyüpspor in-play and half-time data (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 52% of games.
Konyaspor in-play and half-time data (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eyüpspor 39% versus Konyaspor 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eyüpspor 48% | Konyaspor 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eyüpspor 0.91 xG and Konyaspor 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eyüpspor attack 0.645 / defence 1.177 | Konyaspor attack 0.760 / defence 0.887. League average goals — home 1.587 / away 1.253. Eyüpspor's attack strength of 0.645 is below the league average — the 0.91 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 44 Eyüpspor games / 44 Konyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eyüpspor 29% | Draw 30% | Konyaspor 40%. Fair-value odds: Eyüpspor 3.45 | Draw 3.33 | Konyaspor 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Konyaspor at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Konyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.03 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: Eyüpspor 20% | Konyaspor 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eyüpspor vs Konyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 16 May 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eyüpspor 29% | Draw 30% | Konyaspor 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG Eyüpspor 0.91 / Konyaspor 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Eyüpspor attack 0.645 / def 1.177 | Konyaspor attack 0.760 / def 0.887 | league avg home 1.587 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Eyüpspor xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Konyaspor xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eyüpspor vs Konyaspor kick off?
Eyüpspor vs Konyaspor is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 16 May 2027.
What competition is Eyüpspor vs Konyaspor part of?
Eyüpspor vs Konyaspor is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Eyüpspor vs Konyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Eyüpspor a 29% chance of winning, Konyaspor a 40% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eyüpspor vs Konyaspor?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Eyüpspor and Konyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Eyüpspor vs Konyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eyüpspor and Konyaspor?
Record (4 meetings): Eyüpspor 1W | Draws 1 | Konyaspor 2W.
What form are Eyüpspor and Konyaspor in?
Eyüpspor (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 2.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Konyaspor (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Eyüpspor's attack rating (0.65) and Konyaspor's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 0.91 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Konyaspor's attack versus Eyüpspor's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.9%), 0-1 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
29%
3.41
30%
3.29
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Eyüpspor xG
Total xG
2.03
1.12
Konyaspor xG
3.41
29%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.49
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
40%
2.48
Win to Nil
10%
10.46
16%
6.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 14.7 | 8.3 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eyüpspor vs Konyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Eyüpspor and Konyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Eyüpspor and 1.12 for Konyaspor, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Eyüpspor vs Konyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Eyüpspor come into this having played 44 games, going 9W 9D 26L for 0.82 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Eyüpspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Konyaspor sit at 1.09 PPG from 44 outings (12W 12D 20L), a run that reads D-D-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Konyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Eyüpspor on 0.82 PPG, Konyaspor on 1.09. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Eyüpspor's home form reads 6W 4D 11L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.05 PPG return.
Away from home, Konyaspor have taken 0.81 points per game from 21 outings (4W 5D 12L).
Goals in Recent Form
Eyüpspor are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Konyaspor are on 1.11 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eyüpspor
Blended
Konyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eyüpspor and Konyaspor in coming into this match?
Eyüpspor have gone 9W 9D 26L in their last 44 games (0.82 PPG), while Konyaspor have gone 12W 12D 20L in their last 44 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eyüpspor at home or Konyaspor away?
Eyüpspor's home record (1.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eyüpspor at home: 1.05 PPG; Konyaspor away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 19 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Aug 2025, when Konyaspor won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Eyüpspor's record when hosting Konyaspor specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Eyüpspor
1
Draws
2
Konyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eyüpspor and Konyaspor?
From 4 meetings on record, Eyüpspor have won 1, Konyaspor have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Eyüpspor and Konyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 19 January 2026, when Konyaspor 1-1 Eyüpspor.
Who has won more matches between Eyüpspor and Konyaspor?
Konyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Eyüpspor see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eyüpspor 33%, Konyaspor 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Eyüpspor) and 57% (Konyaspor).
On the defensive side: Eyüpspor have failed to score in 48% of games; Konyaspor in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eyüpspor home games / Konyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eyüpspor play Konyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Eyüpspor's recent matches and 67% of Konyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Eyüpspor vs Konyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Eyüpspor's recent games and 57% of Konyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Eyüpspor and Konyaspor tend to score early?
Eyüpspor have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Konyaspor in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.