Eyüpspor 1-1 Fatih Karagümrük – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Eyüpspor at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Eyüpspor vs Fatih Karagümrük fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Eyüpspor host Fatih Karagümrük at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 22 November 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Eyüpspor — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Eyüpspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Eyüpspor at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Eyüpspor are significantly better at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Fatih Karagümrük have recorded 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Fatih Karagümrük, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Fatih Karagümrük have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Eyüpspor at 0.80 PPG versus Fatih Karagümrük's 0.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Eyüpspor in-play and half-time data (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they fail to score in 67% of games.
Fatih Karagümrük in-play and half-time data (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Eyüpspor 25% | Fatih Karagümrük 42%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Eyüpspor 25% | Fatih Karagümrük 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eyüpspor 1.39 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eyüpspor attack 0.862 / defence 0.971 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.796 / defence 1.251. League average goals — home 1.291 / away 1.289. Fatih Karagümrük bring a strong defensive rating of 1.251 — this is suppressing Eyüpspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 48 Eyüpspor games / 12 Fatih Karagümrük games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eyüpspor 44% | Draw 31% | Fatih Karagümrük 25%. Fair-value odds: Eyüpspor 2.27 | Draw 3.23 | Fatih Karagümrük 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Eyüpspor are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Eyüpspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Eyüpspor 40% | Fatih Karagümrük 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eyüpspor vs Fatih Karagümrük | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Nov 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eyüpspor 44% | Draw 31% | Fatih Karagümrük 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Eyüpspor 1.39 / Fatih Karagümrük 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Eyüpspor attack 0.862 / def 0.971 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.796 / def 1.251 | league avg home 1.291 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: Eyüpspor (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Eyüpspor xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Fatih Karagümrük xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eyüpspor vs Fatih Karagümrük kick off?
Eyüpspor vs Fatih Karagümrük kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 22 November 2025 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Eyüpspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Eyüpspor 1 - 1 Fatih Karagümrük.
Where is Eyüpspor vs Fatih Karagümrük being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Eyüpspor vs Fatih Karagümrük part of?
Eyüpspor vs Fatih Karagümrük is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Eyüpspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our statistical model gives Eyüpspor a 44% chance of winning, Fatih Karagümrük a 25% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Eyüpspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eyüpspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Eyüpspor and Fatih Karagümrük will score (BTTS).
Will Eyüpspor vs Fatih Karagümrük have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eyüpspor and Fatih Karagümrük?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Eyüpspor and Fatih Karagümrük in?
Eyüpspor (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Eyüpspor's attack rating (0.86) and Fatih Karagümrük's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Fatih Karagümrük's attack versus Eyüpspor's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 0-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Eyüpspor Win
44%
2.26
31%
3.26
25%
3.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Eyüpspor xG
Total xG
2.39
1.00
Fatih Karagümrük xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
3.98
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
25%
4.02
Win to Nil
16%
6.12
6%
15.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.7 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eyüpspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Eyüpspor and Fatih Karagümrük expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Eyüpspor and 1.00 for Fatih Karagümrük, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Eyüpspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Eyüpspor come into this having played 12 games, going 2W 2D 8L for 0.67 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-L. The sample for Eyüpspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Fatih Karagümrük sit at 0.58 PPG from 12 outings (2W 1D 9L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Fatih Karagümrük is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Eyüpspor on 0.67 PPG, Fatih Karagümrük on 0.58. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Eyüpspor's home form reads 2W 1D 2L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.67 PPG overall — Eyüpspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Fatih Karagümrük have taken 0.60 points per game from 5 outings (1W 0D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Eyüpspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Eyüpspor are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Fatih Karagümrük are on 1.00 scored and 1.92 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eyüpspor have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games.
Last 12 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eyüpspor
Blended
Fatih Karagümrük
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eyüpspor and Fatih Karagümrük in coming into this match?
Eyüpspor have gone 2W 2D 8L in their last 12 games (0.67 PPG), while Fatih Karagümrük have gone 2W 1D 9L in their last 12 (0.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eyüpspor at home or Fatih Karagümrük away?
Eyüpspor's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eyüpspor at home: 1.40 PPG; Fatih Karagümrük away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Eyüpspor and Fatih Karagümrük runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Eyüpspor
1
Draws
0
Fatih Karagümrük
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eyüpspor and Fatih Karagümrük?
From 2 meetings on record, Eyüpspor have won 1, Fatih Karagümrük have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Eyüpspor and Fatih Karagümrük last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Fatih Karagümrük 1-2 Eyüpspor.
Who has won more matches between Eyüpspor and Fatih Karagümrük?
Eyüpspor have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Eyüpspor see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eyüpspor 20%, Fatih Karagümrük 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 20% (Eyüpspor) and 80% (Fatih Karagümrük).
On the defensive side: Eyüpspor keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Eyüpspor have failed to score in 60% of games; Fatih Karagümrük in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eyüpspor home games / Fatih Karagümrük away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eyüpspor play Fatih Karagümrük?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Eyüpspor's recent matches and 60% of Fatih Karagümrük's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Eyüpspor vs Fatih Karagümrük usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Eyüpspor's recent games and 80% of Fatih Karagümrük's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Eyüpspor and Fatih Karagümrük tend to score early?
Eyüpspor have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Fatih Karagümrük in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Eyüpspor and Fatih Karagümrük share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eyüpspor and Fatih Karagümrük finished level at 1-1 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 13, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eyüpspor 1.39 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 1.00 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eyüpspor attack 0.86 / defence 0.97 against Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.80 / defence 1.25, drawn from 48/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eyüpspor 44% | Draw 31% | Fatih Karagümrük 25%, with Eyüpspor to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eyüpspor 25%, Fatih Karagümrük 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eyüpspor's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did.
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Eyüpspor 0.67 PPG, Fatih Karagümrük 0.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.