Bodrum FK 1-1 Trabzonspor – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Trabzonspor at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bodrum FK vs Trabzonspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 36 as Bodrum FK welcome Trabzonspor to Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Sunday 18 May 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Bodrum FK have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
At home at Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu, Bodrum FK have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Trabzonspor — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Trabzonspor away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Bodrum FK) versus 1.40 (Trabzonspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Bodrum FK, 1 for Trabzonspor and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 22 Dec 2024, ended 0–1 with Trabzonspor winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Bodrum FK in-play and half-time data (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 52% of games.
Trabzonspor in-play and half-time data (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bodrum FK 27% versus Trabzonspor 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bodrum FK 27% | Trabzonspor 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodrum FK 0.92 xG and Trabzonspor 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodrum FK attack 0.638 / defence 0.966 | Trabzonspor attack 0.886 / defence 0.907. League average goals — home 1.584 / away 1.249. Bodrum FK's attack strength of 0.638 is below the league average — the 0.92 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 33 Bodrum FK games / 71 Trabzonspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bodrum FK 31% | Draw 31% | Trabzonspor 39%. Fair-value odds: Bodrum FK 3.23 | Draw 3.23 | Trabzonspor 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Trabzonspor as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Trabzonspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.99 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bodrum FK 30% | Trabzonspor 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodrum FK vs Trabzonspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 18 May 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodrum FK 31% | Draw 31% | Trabzonspor 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 39% | xG Bodrum FK 0.92 / Trabzonspor 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Bodrum FK attack 0.638 / def 0.966 | Trabzonspor attack 0.886 / def 0.907 | league avg home 1.584 / away 1.249 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Bodrum FK xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Trabzonspor xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bodrum FK vs Trabzonspor kick off?
Bodrum FK vs Trabzonspor kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 18 May 2025 at Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Bodrum FK vs Trabzonspor?
Bodrum FK 1 - 1 Trabzonspor.
Where is Bodrum FK vs Trabzonspor being played?
The match is being played at Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu.
What competition is Bodrum FK vs Trabzonspor part of?
Bodrum FK vs Trabzonspor is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Bodrum FK vs Trabzonspor?
Our statistical model gives Bodrum FK a 31% chance of winning, Trabzonspor a 39% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bodrum FK vs Trabzonspor?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Bodrum FK and Trabzonspor will score (BTTS).
Will Bodrum FK vs Trabzonspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bodrum FK and Trabzonspor?
Record (1 meetings): Bodrum FK 0W | Draws 0 | Trabzonspor 1W.
What form are Bodrum FK and Trabzonspor in?
Bodrum FK (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-L-L-D. Trabzonspor (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Bodrum FK's attack rating (0.64) and Trabzonspor's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 0.92 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Trabzonspor's attack versus Bodrum FK's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
31%
3.27
31%
3.24
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Bodrum FK xG
Total xG
1.99
1.07
Trabzonspor xG
3.27
31%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.54
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
40%
2.50
Win to Nil
10%
9.54
15%
6.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.7 | 14.7 | 7.8 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.5 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 6.2 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodrum FK vs Trabzonspor?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Bodrum FK and Trabzonspor expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Bodrum FK and 1.07 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodrum FK vs Trabzonspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bodrum FK's recent record stands at 9W 8D 16L from 33 games, a 1.06 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-D in the last five.
Trabzonspor, meanwhile, have gone 12W 10D 11L across 33 games — 1.39 PPG, with W-W-W-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bodrum FK on 1.06 PPG, Trabzonspor on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Bodrum FK have managed 5W 4D 7L from 16 games — 1.19 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Trabzonspor's away record stands at 2W 6D 8L across 16 trips, a 0.75 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.39 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Trabzonspor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodrum FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bodrum FK are averaging 0.73 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Trabzonspor are on 1.61 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bodrum FK have seen both teams score in 27% of their recent games.
Defensively: Bodrum FK have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games; Trabzonspor in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodrum FK
Current Season
Trabzonspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bodrum FK and Trabzonspor in coming into this match?
Bodrum FK have gone 9W 8D 16L in their last 33 games (1.06 PPG), while Trabzonspor have gone 12W 10D 11L in their last 33 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bodrum FK at home or Trabzonspor away?
Bodrum FK's home record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bodrum FK at home: 1.19 PPG; Trabzonspor away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Bodrum FK or Trabzonspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bodrum FK have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Trabzonspor in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Bodrum FK
1
Draws
1
Trabzonspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bodrum FK and Trabzonspor?
From 2 meetings on record, Bodrum FK have won 0, Trabzonspor have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bodrum FK and Trabzonspor last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2025, when Bodrum FK 1-1 Trabzonspor.
Who has won more matches between Bodrum FK and Trabzonspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bodrum FK see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches.
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bodrum FK 31%, Trabzonspor 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Bodrum FK) and 50% (Trabzonspor).
On the defensive side: Bodrum FK keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Trabzonspor in 38%; Bodrum FK have failed to score in 50% of games; Trabzonspor in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodrum FK home games / Trabzonspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bodrum FK play Trabzonspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Bodrum FK's recent matches and 56% of Trabzonspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bodrum FK vs Trabzonspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Bodrum FK's recent games and 50% of Trabzonspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bodrum FK and Trabzonspor tend to score early?
Bodrum FK have had a goal before half-time in 38% of their recent matches, Trabzonspor in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bodrum FK and Trabzonspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodrum FK and Trabzonspor finished level at 1-1 at Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu, Regular Season - 36, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodrum FK 0.92 xG and Trabzonspor 1.07 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodrum FK attack 0.64 / defence 0.97 against Trabzonspor attack 0.89 / defence 0.91, drawn from 33/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bodrum FK 31% | Draw 31% | Trabzonspor 39%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bodrum FK 27%, Trabzonspor 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bodrum FK's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Trabzonspor's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bodrum FK 1.06 PPG, Trabzonspor 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.