Bodrum FK 0-0 Antalyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bodrum FK at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bodrum FK vs Antalyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bodrum FK and Antalyaspor meet at Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 31. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 12 April 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Bodrum FK's overall Süper Lig record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D W W L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Bodrum FK at Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu this season.
Antalyaspor have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: L W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Antalyaspor's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Bodrum FK, 1.80 for Antalyaspor — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Bodrum FK, 1 for Antalyaspor and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2024, ended 2–3 with Antalyaspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Bodrum FK — key trading statistics (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 36% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 21% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 48% of games.
Antalyaspor — key trading statistics (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bodrum FK 28% versus Antalyaspor 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bodrum FK 28% | Antalyaspor 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodrum FK 1.42 xG and Antalyaspor 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodrum FK attack 0.683 / defence 0.965 | Antalyaspor attack 0.773 / defence 1.309. League average goals — home 1.588 / away 1.189. Bodrum FK's attack strength of 0.683 is below the league average — the 1.42 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Antalyaspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.309 — this is suppressing Bodrum FK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 29 Bodrum FK games / 67 Antalyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bodrum FK 49% | Draw 28% | Antalyaspor 23%. Fair-value odds: Bodrum FK 2.04 | Draw 3.57 | Antalyaspor 4.35. Bodrum FK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bodrum FK are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bodrum FK if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.31 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Bodrum FK 20% | Antalyaspor 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodrum FK vs Antalyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Apr 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodrum FK 49% | Draw 28% | Antalyaspor 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 45% | xG Bodrum FK 1.42 / Antalyaspor 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Bodrum FK attack 0.683 / def 0.965 | Antalyaspor attack 0.773 / def 1.309 | league avg home 1.588 / away 1.189 • Poisson stance: Bodrum FK (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Bodrum FK xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Antalyaspor xG
45%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bodrum FK vs Antalyaspor kick off?
Bodrum FK vs Antalyaspor kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 12 April 2025 at Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Bodrum FK vs Antalyaspor?
Bodrum FK 0 - 0 Antalyaspor.
Where is Bodrum FK vs Antalyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu.
What competition is Bodrum FK vs Antalyaspor part of?
Bodrum FK vs Antalyaspor is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Bodrum FK vs Antalyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Bodrum FK a 49% chance of winning, Antalyaspor a 23% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Bodrum FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bodrum FK vs Antalyaspor?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Bodrum FK and Antalyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Bodrum FK vs Antalyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bodrum FK and Antalyaspor?
Record (1 meetings): Bodrum FK 0W | Draws 0 | Antalyaspor 1W.
What form are Bodrum FK and Antalyaspor in?
Bodrum FK (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. Antalyaspor (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Bodrum FK's attack at 0.68x the league average against Antalyaspor's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Antalyaspor's attack (0.77x) against Bodrum FK's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 29/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.5%), 0-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodrum FK Win
49%
2.04
28%
3.57
23%
4.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 0
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Bodrum FK xG
Total xG
2.31
0.89
Antalyaspor xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
4.35
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
24%
4.14
Win to Nil
20%
4.95
6%
18.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 8.8 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.2 | 12.5 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 8.9 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodrum FK vs Antalyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Bodrum FK and Antalyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Bodrum FK and 0.89 for Antalyaspor, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodrum FK vs Antalyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 29 outings, Bodrum FK have picked up 1.14 PPG on a 9W 6D 14L record — D-W-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Antalyaspor's form line: 11W 6D 12L from 29 games, 1.34 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for Bodrum FK against 1.34 for Antalyaspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Bodrum FK have posted 1.29 PPG from 14 outings (5W 3D 6L).
On the road, Antalyaspor have gone 2W 3D 9L from 14 away games — 0.64 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.34 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Antalyaspor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodrum FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bodrum FK are averaging 0.79 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Antalyaspor are on 1.17 scored and 1.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bodrum FK have seen both teams score in 28% of their recent games.
Defensively: Bodrum FK have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodrum FK
Current Season
Antalyaspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bodrum FK and Antalyaspor in coming into this match?
Bodrum FK have gone 9W 6D 14L in their last 29 games (1.14 PPG), while Antalyaspor have gone 11W 6D 12L in their last 29 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bodrum FK at home or Antalyaspor away?
Bodrum FK's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bodrum FK at home: 1.29 PPG; Antalyaspor away: 0.64 PPG.
Have Bodrum FK or Antalyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bodrum FK have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Antalyaspor in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Bodrum FK
1
Draws
1
Antalyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bodrum FK and Antalyaspor?
From 2 meetings on record, Bodrum FK have won 0, Antalyaspor have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bodrum FK and Antalyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2025, when Bodrum FK 0-0 Antalyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Bodrum FK and Antalyaspor?
Antalyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bodrum FK see a goal before the break in 36% of their matches.
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bodrum FK 29%, Antalyaspor 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 21% (Bodrum FK) and 57% (Antalyaspor).
On the defensive side: Bodrum FK keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Bodrum FK have failed to score in 50% of games; Antalyaspor in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodrum FK home games / Antalyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bodrum FK play Antalyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Bodrum FK's recent matches and 50% of Antalyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bodrum FK vs Antalyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 21% of Bodrum FK's recent games and 57% of Antalyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bodrum FK and Antalyaspor tend to score early?
Bodrum FK have had a goal before half-time in 36% of their recent matches, Antalyaspor in 93% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Bodrum FK's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodrum FK and Antalyaspor finished level at 0-0 at Grey Beton Bodrum Stadyumu, Regular Season - 31, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodrum FK 1.42 xG and Antalyaspor 0.89 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bodrum FK fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Antalyaspor landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodrum FK attack 0.68 / defence 0.96 against Antalyaspor attack 0.77 / defence 1.31, drawn from 29/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bodrum FK 49% | Draw 28% | Antalyaspor 23%, with Bodrum FK to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bodrum FK 28%, Antalyaspor 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bodrum FK's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 28% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Antalyaspor's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bodrum FK 1.14 PPG, Antalyaspor 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bodrum FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.36 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.