Beşiktaş 2-1 Trabzonspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beşiktaş at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 24 as Beşiktaş welcome Trabzonspor to Tüpraş Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Saturday 15 February 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Beşiktaş — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D W D D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Beşiktaş, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beşiktaş's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Tüpraş Stadyumu this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Beşiktaş are significantly better at Tüpraş Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Trabzonspor have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Trabzonspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Trabzonspor have posted 0W 5D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Beşiktaş) versus 1.70 (Trabzonspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Beşiktaş register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Trabzonspor in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Beşiktaş, 2 for Trabzonspor and 4 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Sep 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Beşiktaş in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Trabzonspor in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beşiktaş 54% versus Trabzonspor 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beşiktaş 44% | Trabzonspor 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beşiktaş 1.47 xG and Trabzonspor 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beşiktaş attack 0.926 / defence 0.973 | Trabzonspor attack 0.872 / defence 0.969. League average goals — home 1.640 / away 1.220. Data: 59 Beşiktaş games / 59 Trabzonspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beşiktaş 46% | Draw 29% | Trabzonspor 25%. Fair-value odds: Beşiktaş 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | Trabzonspor 4.00. Beşiktaş hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Beşiktaş at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Beşiktaş offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.51 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Beşiktaş 60% | Trabzonspor 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Tüpraş Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Feb 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beşiktaş 46% | Draw 29% | Trabzonspor 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Beşiktaş 1.47 / Trabzonspor 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Beşiktaş attack 0.926 / def 0.973 | Trabzonspor attack 0.872 / def 0.969 | league avg home 1.640 / away 1.220 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Beşiktaş xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Trabzonspor xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor kick off?
Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 15 February 2025 at Tüpraş Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor?
Beşiktaş 2 - 1 Trabzonspor.
Where is Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor being played?
The match is being played at Tüpraş Stadyumu.
What competition is Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor part of?
Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor?
Our statistical model gives Beşiktaş a 46% chance of winning, Trabzonspor a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Beşiktaş and Trabzonspor will score (BTTS).
Will Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Trabzonspor?
Record (7 meetings): Beşiktaş 1W | Draws 4 | Trabzonspor 2W.
What form are Beşiktaş and Trabzonspor in?
Beşiktaş (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-D-D-W. Trabzonspor (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Beşiktaş's attack rating (0.93) and Trabzonspor's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Trabzonspor's attack versus Beşiktaş's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
46%
2.18
29%
3.46
25%
3.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Beşiktaş xG
Total xG
2.51
1.03
Trabzonspor xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
3.96
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
36%
2.82
23%
4.36
Win to Nil
16%
6.14
6%
17.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 8.4 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.4 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Beşiktaş and Trabzonspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Beşiktaş and 1.03 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 59 outings, Beşiktaş have picked up 1.54 PPG on a 25W 16D 18L record — D-W-D-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Beşiktaş is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Trabzonspor's form line: 28W 12D 19L from 59 games, 1.63 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-W. The sample for Trabzonspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Beşiktaş on 1.54 PPG, Trabzonspor on 1.63. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Beşiktaş have posted 1.86 PPG from 29 outings (16W 6D 7L).
On the road, Trabzonspor have gone 9W 8D 12L from 29 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.63 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Trabzonspor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beşiktaş come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Beşiktaş are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Trabzonspor are on 1.75 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Defensively: Beşiktaş have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beşiktaş
Blended
Trabzonspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beşiktaş and Trabzonspor in coming into this match?
Beşiktaş have gone 25W 16D 18L in their last 59 games (1.54 PPG), while Trabzonspor have gone 28W 12D 19L in their last 59 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beşiktaş at home or Trabzonspor away?
Beşiktaş's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beşiktaş at home: 1.86 PPG; Trabzonspor away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Beşiktaş or Trabzonspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beşiktaş have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Trabzonspor in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Beşiktaş and Trabzonspor runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Sep 2023, when Trabzonspor won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Beşiktaş's record when hosting Trabzonspor specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Beşiktaş
5
Draws
3
Trabzonspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Trabzonspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Beşiktaş have won 2, Trabzonspor have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Beşiktaş and Trabzonspor last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Beşiktaş 1-2 Trabzonspor.
Who has won more matches between Beşiktaş and Trabzonspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beşiktaş 52%, Trabzonspor 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Beşiktaş) and 52% (Trabzonspor).
On the defensive side: Beşiktaş keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Trabzonspor in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beşiktaş home games / Trabzonspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beşiktaş play Trabzonspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Beşiktaş's games and 59% of Trabzonspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Beşiktaş's recent games and 52% of Trabzonspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Beşiktaş and Trabzonspor tend to score early?
Beşiktaş have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Trabzonspor in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Beşiktaş edge out Trabzonspor 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beşiktaş beat Trabzonspor 2-1 at Tüpraş Stadyumu, Regular Season - 24, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beşiktaş 1.47 xG and Trabzonspor 1.03 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beşiktaş attack 0.93 / defence 0.97 against Trabzonspor attack 0.87 / defence 0.97, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beşiktaş 46% | Draw 29% | Trabzonspor 25%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beşiktaş 44%, Trabzonspor 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beşiktaş's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Trabzonspor's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Beşiktaş 1.54 PPG, Trabzonspor 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Beşiktaş win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.