Beşiktaş 1-2 Rizespor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Beşiktaş at 61% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Beşiktaş vs Rizespor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Rizespor make the trip to Tüpraş Stadyumu to face Beşiktaş in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 37. The match kicks off on Sunday 25 May 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Beşiktaş have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Beşiktaş at Tüpraş Stadyumu this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Beşiktaş are significantly better at Tüpraş Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Rizespor (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Rizespor away from home this season: 2W 0D 8L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Beşiktaş, 1.30 for Rizespor — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Beşiktaş have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Rizespor in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Across 5 previous meetings, Beşiktaş are the stronger side on paper — 3 victories to 0, with 2 draws in between.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.6 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 3 Jan 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Beşiktaş and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.6 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Beşiktaş goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Rizespor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beşiktaş 57% versus Rizespor 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beşiktaş 44% | Rizespor 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beşiktaş 2.06 xG and Rizespor 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beşiktaş attack 1.165 / defence 0.926 | Rizespor attack 0.868 / defence 1.105. League average goals — home 1.602 / away 1.257. Data: 72 Beşiktaş games / 72 Rizespor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beşiktaş 61% | Draw 21% | Rizespor 18%. Fair-value odds: Beşiktaş 1.64 | Draw 4.76 | Rizespor 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Beşiktaş (61%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Beşiktaş as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.07 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Beşiktaş 70% | Rizespor 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beşiktaş vs Rizespor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Tüpraş Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 25 May 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beşiktaş 61% | Draw 21% | Rizespor 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 56% | xG Beşiktaş 2.06 / Rizespor 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Beşiktaş attack 1.165 / def 0.926 | Rizespor attack 0.868 / def 1.105 | league avg home 1.602 / away 1.257 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.06
Beşiktaş xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Rizespor xG
56%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beşiktaş vs Rizespor kick off?
Beşiktaş vs Rizespor kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 25 May 2025 at Tüpraş Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Beşiktaş vs Rizespor?
Beşiktaş 1 - 2 Rizespor.
Where is Beşiktaş vs Rizespor being played?
The match is being played at Tüpraş Stadyumu.
What competition is Beşiktaş vs Rizespor part of?
Beşiktaş vs Rizespor is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Beşiktaş vs Rizespor?
Our statistical model gives Beşiktaş a 61% chance of winning, Rizespor a 18% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beşiktaş vs Rizespor?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Beşiktaş and Rizespor will score (BTTS).
Will Beşiktaş vs Rizespor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Rizespor?
Record (5 meetings): Beşiktaş 3W | Draws 2 | Rizespor 0W.
What form are Beşiktaş and Rizespor in?
Beşiktaş (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-W-D. Rizespor (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Beşiktaş's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against Rizespor's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.06. Flip it around — Rizespor's attack (0.87x) against Beşiktaş's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 72/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
61%
1.63
21%
4.78
18%
5.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
Beşiktaş xG
Total xG
3.07
1.01
Rizespor xG
1.63
61%
Home win
4.78
21%
Draw
5.68
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
13%
7.86
Win to Nil
22%
4.47
2%
44.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.6 | 9.6 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beşiktaş vs Rizespor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Beşiktaş and Rizespor expected to score?
The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Beşiktaş and 1.01 for Rizespor, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Beşiktaş vs Rizespor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Beşiktaş's recent record stands at 32W 19D 21L from 72 games, a 1.60 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-D in the last five.
Rizespor, meanwhile, have gone 27W 12D 33L across 72 games — 1.29 PPG, with W-L-W-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.60 PPG for Beşiktaş against 1.29 for Rizespor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Beşiktaş have managed 21W 6D 9L from 36 games — 1.92 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rizespor's away record stands at 8W 3D 25L across 36 trips, a 0.75 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.29 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rizespor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beşiktaş come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Beşiktaş are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Rizespor are on 1.29 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Last 72 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beşiktaş
Current Season
Rizespor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beşiktaş and Rizespor in coming into this match?
Beşiktaş have gone 32W 19D 21L in their last 72 games (1.60 PPG), while Rizespor have gone 27W 12D 33L in their last 72 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beşiktaş at home or Rizespor away?
Beşiktaş's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beşiktaş at home: 1.92 PPG; Rizespor away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Beşiktaş or Rizespor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beşiktaş have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Rizespor in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 15 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Beşiktaş won 0-4 on 9 Jan 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Beşiktaş have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Rizespor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Beşiktaş
3
Draws
1
Rizespor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beşiktaş and Rizespor?
From 8 meetings on record, Beşiktaş have won 4, Rizespor have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Beşiktaş and Rizespor last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2026, when Rizespor 2-2 Beşiktaş.
Who has won more matches between Beşiktaş and Rizespor?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beşiktaş 56%, Rizespor 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Beşiktaş) and 67% (Rizespor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Beşiktaş keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Rizespor in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beşiktaş home games / Rizespor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beşiktaş play Rizespor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Beşiktaş's recent matches and 53% of Rizespor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Beşiktaş vs Rizespor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Beşiktaş's matches and 67% of Rizespor's.
Do Beşiktaş and Rizespor tend to score early?
Beşiktaş have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Rizespor in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Rizespor defy the odds to beat Beşiktaş 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rizespor beat Beşiktaş 1-2 at Tüpraş Stadyumu, Regular Season - 37, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beşiktaş 2.06 xG and Rizespor 1.01 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Beşiktaş fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Rizespor outscored their 1.01 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beşiktaş attack 1.17 / defence 0.93 against Rizespor attack 0.87 / defence 1.10, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beşiktaş 61% | Draw 21% | Rizespor 18%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a Rizespor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beşiktaş 44%, Rizespor 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beşiktaş's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Rizespor's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Beşiktaş 1.60 PPG, Rizespor 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rizespor win broke the near-deadlock. Beşiktaş (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rizespor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.