Başakşehir 1-2 Göztepe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Başakşehir at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Başakşehir vs Göztepe fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Başakşehir and Göztepe meet at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 22 January 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Başakşehir's overall Süper Lig record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: D W D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Başakşehir at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
Göztepe (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L D W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Göztepe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Göztepe have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.90 for Başakşehir, 1.50 for Göztepe — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Başakşehir 0W, Göztepe 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2021, ended 1–2 with Göztepe winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Başakşehir half-time and goal-timing data (21 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Göztepe half-time and goal-timing data (21 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 89% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Başakşehir 57% and Göztepe 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 57% | Göztepe 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 1.79 xG and Göztepe 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 1.143 / defence 1.016 | Göztepe attack 0.943 / defence 1.320. League average goals — home 1.186 / away 1.091. Göztepe bring a strong defensive rating of 1.320 — this is suppressing Başakşehir's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 Başakşehir games / 22 Göztepe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Başakşehir 54% | Draw 24% | Göztepe 21%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 1.85 | Draw 4.17 | Göztepe 4.76. Başakşehir hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Başakşehir at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Başakşehir if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Başakşehir 50% | Göztepe 100% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Başakşehir vs Göztepe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Jan 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Başakşehir 54% | Draw 24% | Göztepe 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 55% | xG Başakşehir 1.79 / Göztepe 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Başakşehir attack 1.143 / def 1.016 | Göztepe attack 0.943 / def 1.320 | league avg home 1.186 / away 1.091 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Başakşehir xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Göztepe xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Başakşehir vs Göztepe kick off?
Başakşehir vs Göztepe kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 22 January 2022 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Başakşehir vs Göztepe?
Başakşehir 1 - 2 Göztepe.
Where is Başakşehir vs Göztepe being played?
The match is being played at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu.
What competition is Başakşehir vs Göztepe part of?
Başakşehir vs Göztepe is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Başakşehir vs Göztepe?
Our statistical model gives Başakşehir a 54% chance of winning, Göztepe a 21% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Başakşehir vs Göztepe?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Başakşehir and Göztepe will score (BTTS).
Will Başakşehir vs Göztepe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Göztepe?
Record (1 meetings): Başakşehir 0W | Draws 0 | Göztepe 1W.
What form are Başakşehir and Göztepe in?
Başakşehir (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-D-D-L. Göztepe (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Başakşehir's attack rating (1.14) and Göztepe's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 1.79 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Göztepe's attack (0.94x) against Başakşehir's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 21/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
54%
1.84
24%
4.12
21%
4.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Başakşehir xG
Total xG
2.83
1.04
Göztepe xG
1.84
54%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
4.67
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
17%
5.98
Win to Nil
19%
5.24
4%
27.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 11.0 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.8 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Başakşehir vs Göztepe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Başakşehir and Göztepe expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Başakşehir and 1.04 for Göztepe, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Başakşehir vs Göztepe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 21 outings, Başakşehir have picked up 1.62 PPG on a 10W 4D 7L record — D-W-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Başakşehir is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Göztepe's form line: 6W 5D 10L from 21 games, 1.10 PPG, last five L-D-W-W-W. The sample for Göztepe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Başakşehir are the form team by 0.52 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Göztepe.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Başakşehir have posted 2.44 PPG from 9 outings (7W 1D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.62 PPG overall — Başakşehir are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Göztepe have gone 2W 3D 4L from 9 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Başakşehir come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Başakşehir are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Göztepe are on 1.19 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Göztepe in 67%.
Last 21 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Başakşehir
Blended
Göztepe
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Başakşehir and Göztepe in coming into this match?
Başakşehir have gone 10W 4D 7L in their last 21 games (1.62 PPG), while Göztepe have gone 6W 5D 10L in their last 21 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Başakşehir at home or Göztepe away?
Başakşehir's home record (2.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Başakşehir at home: 2.44 PPG; Göztepe away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Başakşehir won 4-1 on 30 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Başakşehir have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Göztepe — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Başakşehir
0
Draws
4
Göztepe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Göztepe?
From 6 meetings on record, Başakşehir have won 2, Göztepe have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Başakşehir and Göztepe last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Başakşehir 2-1 Göztepe.
Who has won more matches between Başakşehir and Göztepe?
Göztepe have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Göztepe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 56% for Başakşehir, 100% for Göztepe — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Başakşehir and 89% for Göztepe. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Başakşehir keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Başakşehir home games / Göztepe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Başakşehir play Göztepe?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Başakşehir's games and 100% of Göztepe's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Başakşehir vs Göztepe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Başakşehir's matches and 89% of Göztepe's.
Do Başakşehir and Göztepe tend to score early?
Başakşehir have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Göztepe in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Göztepe defy the odds to beat Başakşehir 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Göztepe beat Başakşehir 1-2 at Başakşehir Fatih Terim Stadyumu, Regular Season - 23, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Başakşehir 1.79 xG and Göztepe 1.04 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Göztepe outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Başakşehir attack 1.14 / defence 1.02 against Göztepe attack 0.94 / defence 1.32, drawn from 21/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Başakşehir 54% | Draw 24% | Göztepe 21%, with Başakşehir to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Göztepe win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Başakşehir 57%, Göztepe 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Başakşehir's trading profile (21 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Göztepe's trading profile (21 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Başakşehir arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.10. Form was overturned, with Göztepe winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Başakşehir (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.