Başakşehir vs Amed – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Başakşehir at 68%, yet other data sources diverge — this Başakşehir vs Amed fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Başakşehir host Amed at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 21 February 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Başakşehir stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Başakşehir have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Başakşehir's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Amed have recorded 2W 0D 1L from 3 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L W. They are scoring at 1.67 per game and conceding 1.00. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Amed have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Başakşehir 1.80 PPG, Amed 2.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Başakşehir in-play and half-time data (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games.
Amed in-play and half-time data (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Başakşehir 67% versus Amed 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Başakşehir 33% | Amed 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Başakşehir 2.02 xG and Amed 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Başakşehir attack 1.140 / defence 0.800 | Amed attack 0.717 / defence 1.213. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.218. Amed bring a strong defensive rating of 1.213 — this is suppressing Başakşehir's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 Başakşehir games / 3 Amed games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Başakşehir 68% | Draw 20% | Amed 12%. Fair-value odds: Başakşehir 1.47 | Draw 5.00 | Amed 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Başakşehir (68%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Başakşehir at 68% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.72 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Başakşehir 40% | Amed 33% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Başakşehir vs Amed | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Feb 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Başakşehir 68% | Draw 20% | Amed 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 44% | xG Başakşehir 2.02 / Amed 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Başakşehir attack 1.140 / def 0.800 | Amed attack 0.717 / def 1.213 | league avg home 1.461 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Başakşehir (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
Başakşehir xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Amed xG
44%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Başakşehir vs Amed kick off?
Başakşehir vs Amed is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 21 February 2027 at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium.
Where is Başakşehir vs Amed being played?
The match is being played at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium.
What competition is Başakşehir vs Amed part of?
Başakşehir vs Amed is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Başakşehir vs Amed?
Our statistical model gives Başakşehir a 68% chance of winning, Amed a 12% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Başakşehir the favourite.
Will both teams score in Başakşehir vs Amed?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Başakşehir and Amed will score (BTTS).
Will Başakşehir vs Amed have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Başakşehir and Amed?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Başakşehir and Amed in?
Başakşehir (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. Amed (all comps): 2W-0D-1L in 3 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Başakşehir's attack rating (1.14) and Amed's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 2.02 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Amed's attack versus Başakşehir's defence, projects 0.70 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (37/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 1-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Başakşehir Win
68%
1.46
20%
5.06
12%
8.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
Başakşehir xG
Total xG
2.72
0.70
Amed xG
1.46
68%
Home win
5.06
20%
Draw
8.44
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
50%
2.01
13%
7.54
Win to Nil
34%
2.94
2%
63.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.3 | 9.3 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.5 | 9.4 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.1 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.6 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Başakşehir vs Amed?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Başakşehir and Amed expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Başakşehir and 0.70 for Amed, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Başakşehir vs Amed?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Başakşehir come into this having played 3 games, going 1W 1D 1L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D. It's still early in the season for Başakşehir, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Amed sit at 2.00 PPG from 3 outings (2W 0D 1L), a run that reads W-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Amed, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Amed carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.67 PPG clear of Başakşehir — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
Başakşehir are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Amed are on 1.67 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Başakşehir have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 3 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Başakşehir
Early Season
Amed
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Başakşehir and Amed in coming into this match?
Başakşehir have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 games (1.33 PPG), while Amed have gone 2W 0D 1L in their last 3 (2.00 PPG).
Have Başakşehir or Amed been keeping clean sheets recently?
Başakşehir have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Amed in 33%.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Amed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Başakşehir 67%, Amed 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Başakşehir) and 67% (Amed).
On the defensive side: Başakşehir keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Amed in 33%; Amed in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Başakşehir home games / Amed away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Başakşehir play Amed?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Başakşehir's recent matches and 33% of Amed's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Başakşehir vs Amed usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Başakşehir's recent games and 67% of Amed's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Başakşehir and Amed tend to score early?
Başakşehir have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Amed in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.