Antalyaspor 3-2 Bodrum FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Antalyaspor at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Antalyaspor vs Bodrum FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bodrum FK make the trip to Corendon Airlines Park to face Antalyaspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Saturday 9 November 2024 at 10:30 UTC.
Form
Antalyaspor (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Antalyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Corendon Airlines Park, Antalyaspor have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Antalyaspor are significantly better at Corendon Airlines Park than their overall form suggests.
Bodrum FK's overall Süper Lig record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Bodrum FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bodrum FK away from home this season: 1W 1D 3L from 5 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
Antalyaspor half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Bodrum FK half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they fail to score in 64% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antalyaspor 54% versus Bodrum FK 27%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antalyaspor 64% | Bodrum FK 27%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antalyaspor 1.30 xG and Bodrum FK 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antalyaspor attack 0.837 / defence 1.062 | Bodrum FK attack 0.580 / defence 1.071. League average goals — home 1.447 / away 1.318. Data: 49 Antalyaspor games / 11 Bodrum FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antalyaspor 46% | Draw 32% | Bodrum FK 22%. Fair-value odds: Antalyaspor 2.17 | Draw 3.12 | Bodrum FK 4.55. Antalyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Antalyaspor at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Antalyaspor if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.11 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Antalyaspor 60% | Bodrum FK 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antalyaspor vs Bodrum FK | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Corendon Airlines Park • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Nov 2024, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antalyaspor 46% | Draw 32% | Bodrum FK 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Antalyaspor 1.30 / Bodrum FK 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Antalyaspor attack 0.837 / def 1.062 | Bodrum FK attack 0.580 / def 1.071 | league avg home 1.447 / away 1.318 • Poisson stance: Antalyaspor (46%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Antalyaspor xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Bodrum FK xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antalyaspor vs Bodrum FK kick off?
Antalyaspor vs Bodrum FK kicked off at 10:30 on Saturday 9 November 2024 at Corendon Airlines Park.
What was the final score in Antalyaspor vs Bodrum FK?
Antalyaspor 3 - 2 Bodrum FK.
Where is Antalyaspor vs Bodrum FK being played?
The match is being played at Corendon Airlines Park.
What competition is Antalyaspor vs Bodrum FK part of?
Antalyaspor vs Bodrum FK is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Antalyaspor vs Bodrum FK?
Our statistical model gives Antalyaspor a 46% chance of winning, Bodrum FK a 22% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Antalyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antalyaspor vs Bodrum FK?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Antalyaspor and Bodrum FK will score (BTTS).
Will Antalyaspor vs Bodrum FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Bodrum FK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Antalyaspor and Bodrum FK in?
Antalyaspor (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Bodrum FK (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-L-D.
What do the betting odds say about Antalyaspor vs Bodrum FK?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Antalyaspor's attack at 0.84x the league average against Bodrum FK's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bodrum FK's attack (0.58x) against Antalyaspor's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 49/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (14.1%), 0-0 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antalyaspor Win
46%
2.15
32%
3.16
22%
4.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Antalyaspor xG
Total xG
2.11
0.81
Bodrum FK xG
2.15
46%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
4.57
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
27%
3.66
Win to Nil
21%
4.85
6%
16.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 9.9 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.7 | 12.8 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.2 | 8.3 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antalyaspor vs Bodrum FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Antalyaspor and Bodrum FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Antalyaspor and 0.81 for Bodrum FK, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Antalyaspor vs Bodrum FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 11 outings, Antalyaspor have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 3W 2D 6L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Antalyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bodrum FK's form line: 3W 2D 6L from 11 games, 1.00 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-D. The sample for Bodrum FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Antalyaspor against 1.00 for Bodrum FK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Antalyaspor have posted 1.40 PPG from 5 outings (2W 1D 2L).
On the road, Bodrum FK have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 away games — 0.80 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Antalyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Antalyaspor are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Bodrum FK are on 0.73 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bodrum FK in 27%.
Last 11 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antalyaspor
Blended
Bodrum FK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antalyaspor and Bodrum FK in coming into this match?
Antalyaspor have gone 3W 2D 6L in their last 11 games (1.00 PPG), while Bodrum FK have gone 3W 2D 6L in their last 11 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antalyaspor at home or Bodrum FK away?
Antalyaspor's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antalyaspor at home: 1.40 PPG; Bodrum FK away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Antalyaspor
1
Draws
0
Bodrum FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Bodrum FK?
From 2 meetings on record, Antalyaspor have won 1, Bodrum FK have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Antalyaspor and Bodrum FK last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2025, when Bodrum FK 0-0 Antalyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Antalyaspor and Bodrum FK?
Antalyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Antalyaspor see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Bodrum FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 40% (Antalyaspor) and 20% (Bodrum FK) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Antalyaspor) and 20% (Bodrum FK).
On the defensive side: Bodrum FK in 40%; Antalyaspor have failed to score in 60% of games; Bodrum FK in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antalyaspor home games / Bodrum FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antalyaspor play Bodrum FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Antalyaspor's recent matches and 20% of Bodrum FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Antalyaspor vs Bodrum FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Antalyaspor's recent games and 20% of Bodrum FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Antalyaspor and Bodrum FK tend to score early?
Antalyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Bodrum FK in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Antalyaspor edge out Bodrum FK 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antalyaspor beat Bodrum FK 3-2 at Corendon Airlines Park, Regular Season - 12, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 1.30 xG and Bodrum FK 0.81 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Antalyaspor beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bodrum FK outscored their 0.81 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 0.84 / defence 1.06 against Bodrum FK attack 0.58 / defence 1.07, drawn from 49/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 46% | Draw 32% | Bodrum FK 22%, with Antalyaspor to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 64%, Bodrum FK 27%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antalyaspor's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Bodrum FK's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Antalyaspor 1.00 PPG, Bodrum FK 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Antalyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Bodrum FK (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.40 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.