Antalyaspor 0-0 Alanyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Antalyaspor at 45% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Alanyaspor travel to Corendon Airlines Park to take on Antalyaspor. The game is scheduled for Friday 5 January 2024, 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Antalyaspor have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D D W D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Antalyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Antalyaspor's home record at Corendon Airlines Park: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Corendon Airlines Park.
Alanyaspor — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Alanyaspor have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Antalyaspor) versus 1.30 (Alanyaspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Antalyaspor, 1 for Alanyaspor and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Apr 2023, ended 3–1 with Antalyaspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Antalyaspor in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Alanyaspor in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antalyaspor 49% versus Alanyaspor 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antalyaspor 45% | Alanyaspor 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antalyaspor 1.29 xG and Alanyaspor 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antalyaspor attack 0.830 / defence 0.796 | Alanyaspor attack 0.870 / defence 1.009. League average goals — home 1.545 / away 1.260. Antalyaspor's defence rating of 0.796 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 53 Antalyaspor games / 53 Alanyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antalyaspor 45% | Draw 31% | Alanyaspor 24%. Fair-value odds: Antalyaspor 2.22 | Draw 3.23 | Alanyaspor 4.17. Antalyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Antalyaspor as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Antalyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.17 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Antalyaspor 40% | Alanyaspor 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Corendon Airlines Park • Kick-off: Friday 5 Jan 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antalyaspor 45% | Draw 31% | Alanyaspor 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Antalyaspor 1.29 / Alanyaspor 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Antalyaspor attack 0.830 / def 0.796 | Alanyaspor attack 0.870 / def 1.009 | league avg home 1.545 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: Antalyaspor (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Antalyaspor xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Alanyaspor xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor kick off?
Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 5 January 2024 at Corendon Airlines Park.
What was the final score in Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor?
Antalyaspor 0 - 0 Alanyaspor.
Where is Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Corendon Airlines Park.
What competition is Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor part of?
Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Antalyaspor a 45% chance of winning, Alanyaspor a 24% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Antalyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Antalyaspor and Alanyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Alanyaspor?
Record (4 meetings): Antalyaspor 3W | Draws 0 | Alanyaspor 1W.
What form are Antalyaspor and Alanyaspor in?
Antalyaspor (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-D-L. Alanyaspor (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Antalyaspor's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Alanyaspor's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. The same calculation in reverse, Alanyaspor's attack versus Antalyaspor's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.1%), 0-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antalyaspor Win
45%
2.23
31%
3.19
24%
4.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Antalyaspor xG
Total xG
2.17
0.87
Alanyaspor xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
4.22
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
27%
3.65
Win to Nil
19%
5.33
6%
15.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 10.0 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.8 | 12.9 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Antalyaspor and Alanyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Antalyaspor and 0.87 for Alanyaspor, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Antalyaspor's recent record stands at 17W 14D 22L from 53 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with D-D-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Antalyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Alanyaspor, meanwhile, have gone 16W 13D 24L across 53 games — 1.15 PPG, with L-D-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Alanyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Antalyaspor on 1.23 PPG, Alanyaspor on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Antalyaspor have managed 12W 7D 7L from 26 games — 1.65 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.23 PPG overall — Antalyaspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Alanyaspor's away record stands at 5W 6D 15L across 26 trips, a 0.81 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Antalyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Antalyaspor are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Alanyaspor are on 1.36 scored and 1.79 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antalyaspor
Blended
Alanyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antalyaspor and Alanyaspor in coming into this match?
Antalyaspor have gone 17W 14D 22L in their last 53 games (1.23 PPG), while Alanyaspor have gone 16W 13D 24L in their last 53 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antalyaspor at home or Alanyaspor away?
Antalyaspor's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antalyaspor at home: 1.65 PPG; Alanyaspor away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Nov 2021, when Antalyaspor won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Antalyaspor's record when hosting Alanyaspor specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Antalyaspor
4
Draws
1
Alanyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Alanyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Antalyaspor have won 5, Alanyaspor have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Antalyaspor and Alanyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Antalyaspor 0-0 Alanyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Antalyaspor and Alanyaspor?
Antalyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antalyaspor 54%, Alanyaspor 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Antalyaspor) and 65% (Alanyaspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Antalyaspor keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Antalyaspor have failed to score in 27% of games; Alanyaspor in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antalyaspor home games / Alanyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antalyaspor play Alanyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Antalyaspor's recent matches and 50% of Alanyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Antalyaspor vs Alanyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Antalyaspor's matches and 65% of Alanyaspor's.
Do Antalyaspor and Alanyaspor tend to score early?
Antalyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Alanyaspor in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Antalyaspor's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antalyaspor and Alanyaspor finished level at 0-0 at Corendon Airlines Park, Regular Season - 19, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 1.29 xG and Alanyaspor 0.87 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Antalyaspor fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Alanyaspor landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 0.83 / defence 0.80 against Alanyaspor attack 0.87 / defence 1.01, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 45% | Draw 31% | Alanyaspor 24%, with Antalyaspor to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 45%, Alanyaspor 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antalyaspor's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Alanyaspor's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Antalyaspor 1.23 PPG, Alanyaspor 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.