Ankaragücü 2-3 Beşiktaş – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Beşiktaş at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ankaragücü vs Beşiktaş encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Beşiktaş travel to Eryaman Stadyumu to take on Ankaragücü. The game is scheduled for Sunday 4 September 2022, 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Ankaragücü — All Games: 0W 1D 2L from 3 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 0.33 points per game. Last five: D L L. They are averaging 0.33 goals per game and conceding 1.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Ankaragücü have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Beşiktaş stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Beşiktaş have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Beşiktaş away from home this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Beşiktaş — 1.57 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.33). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Profile
Ankaragücü in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
Beşiktaş in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 100%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ankaragücü 33% and Beşiktaş 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Ankaragücü 33% | Beşiktaş 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ankaragücü 1.16 xG and Beşiktaş 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ankaragücü attack 0.733 / defence 0.950 | Beşiktaş attack 1.205 / defence 1.088. League average goals — home 1.457 / away 1.195. Ankaragücü's attack strength of 0.733 is below the league average — the 1.16 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Beşiktaş have an above-average attack strength of 1.205 — the away xG of 1.37 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 3 Ankaragücü games / 42 Beşiktaş games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ankaragücü 32% | Draw 27% | Beşiktaş 42%. Fair-value odds: Ankaragücü 3.12 | Draw 3.70 | Beşiktaş 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Beşiktaş are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Beşiktaş offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.53 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Ankaragücü 33% | Beşiktaş 70%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ankaragücü vs Beşiktaş | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Eryaman Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Sep 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ankaragücü 32% | Draw 27% | Beşiktaş 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Ankaragücü 1.16 / Beşiktaş 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Ankaragücü attack 0.733 / def 0.950 | Beşiktaş attack 1.205 / def 1.088 | league avg home 1.457 / away 1.195 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Ankaragücü xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Beşiktaş xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ankaragücü vs Beşiktaş kick off?
Ankaragücü vs Beşiktaş kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 4 September 2022 at Eryaman Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Ankaragücü vs Beşiktaş?
Ankaragücü 2 - 3 Beşiktaş.
Where is Ankaragücü vs Beşiktaş being played?
The match is being played at Eryaman Stadyumu.
What competition is Ankaragücü vs Beşiktaş part of?
Ankaragücü vs Beşiktaş is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Ankaragücü vs Beşiktaş?
Our statistical model gives Ankaragücü a 32% chance of winning, Beşiktaş a 42% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ankaragücü vs Beşiktaş?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Ankaragücü and Beşiktaş will score (BTTS).
Will Ankaragücü vs Beşiktaş have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ankaragücü and Beşiktaş?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ankaragücü and Beşiktaş in?
Ankaragücü (all comps): 0W-1D-2L in 3 | 0.33 PPG | GF 0.33 / GA 1.67 | L5 D-L-L. Beşiktaş (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Ankaragücü's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against Beşiktaş's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. The same calculation in reverse, Beşiktaş's attack versus Ankaragücü's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
32%
3.14
27%
3.75
42%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Ankaragücü xG
Total xG
2.53
1.37
Beşiktaş xG
3.14
32%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
2.41
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
25%
3.93
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
8%
12.35
13%
7.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 10.9 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.7 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.4 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ankaragücü vs Beşiktaş?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Ankaragücü and Beşiktaş expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Ankaragücü and 1.37 for Beşiktaş, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Ankaragücü vs Beşiktaş?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ankaragücü's recent record stands at 0W 1D 2L from 3 games, a 0.33 PPG return, with D-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Ankaragücü, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Beşiktaş, meanwhile, have gone 2W 1D 0L across 3 games — 2.33 PPG, with D-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Beşiktaş, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Beşiktaş by 2.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ankaragücü heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
Ankaragücü are averaging 0.33 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Beşiktaş are on 3.33 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beşiktaş in 100%.
Last 3 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ankaragücü
Early Season
Beşiktaş
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ankaragücü and Beşiktaş in coming into this match?
Ankaragücü have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 games (0.33 PPG), while Beşiktaş have gone 2W 1D 0L in their last 3 (2.33 PPG).
Have Ankaragücü or Beşiktaş been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ankaragücü have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Beşiktaş in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Ankaragücü's record when hosting Beşiktaş specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Ankaragücü
1
Draws
3
Beşiktaş
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ankaragücü and Beşiktaş?
From 4 meetings on record, Ankaragücü have won 0, Beşiktaş have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ankaragücü and Beşiktaş last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2024, when Beşiktaş 2-0 Ankaragücü.
Who has won more matches between Ankaragücü and Beşiktaş?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ankaragücü see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 100% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Ankaragücü at 33%, Beşiktaş at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 33% for Ankaragücü and 100% for Beşiktaş. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 100% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ankaragücü keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Ankaragücü have failed to score in 67% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ankaragücü home games / Beşiktaş away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ankaragücü play Beşiktaş?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 33% of Ankaragücü's games and 100% of Beşiktaş's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ankaragücü vs Beşiktaş usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 33% of Ankaragücü's matches and 100% of Beşiktaş's.
Do Ankaragücü and Beşiktaş tend to score early?
Ankaragücü have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Beşiktaş in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Beşiktaş edge out Ankaragücü 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beşiktaş beat Ankaragücü 2-3 at Eryaman Stadyumu, Regular Season - 5, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ankaragücü 1.16 xG and Beşiktaş 1.37 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Ankaragücü beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Beşiktaş outscored their 1.37 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ankaragücü attack 0.73 / defence 0.95 against Beşiktaş attack 1.21 / defence 1.09, drawn from 3/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ankaragücü 32% | Draw 27% | Beşiktaş 42%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ankaragücü 33%, Beşiktaş 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ankaragücü's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Beşiktaş's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Beşiktaş arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 0.33. That form edge translated into the three points. Ankaragücü scored 2 against a 0.33 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.