Amed 2-1 Trabzonspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Amed at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Amed vs Trabzonspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Amed host Trabzonspor at Diyarbakir Stadium in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 31 August 2026 at 18:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Amed have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Amed have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Trabzonspor — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Trabzonspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Trabzonspor's form when playing away from home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.10 exceeds their overall 1.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Amed at 1.50 PPG versus Trabzonspor's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Amed 1.38 xG and Trabzonspor 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amed attack 1.073 / defence 0.999 | Trabzonspor attack 1.090 / defence 0.942. League average goals — home 1.366 / away 1.202. Data: 2 Amed games / 36 Trabzonspor games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Amed 39% | Draw 26% | Trabzonspor 35%. Fair-value odds: Amed 2.56 | Draw 3.85 | Trabzonspor 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Amed as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Amed offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Amed vs Trabzonspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Diyarbakir Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 31 Aug 2026, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Amed 39% | Draw 26% | Trabzonspor 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Amed 1.38 / Trabzonspor 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Amed attack 1.073 / def 0.999 | Trabzonspor attack 1.090 / def 0.942 | league avg home 1.366 / away 1.202 • Poisson stance: Amed (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Amed xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Trabzonspor xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Amed vs Trabzonspor kick off?
Amed vs Trabzonspor kicked off at 18:30 on Monday 31 August 2026 at Diyarbakir Stadium.
What was the final score in Amed vs Trabzonspor?
Amed 2 - 1 Trabzonspor.
Where is Amed vs Trabzonspor being played?
The match is being played at Diyarbakir Stadium.
What competition is Amed vs Trabzonspor part of?
Amed vs Trabzonspor is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Amed vs Trabzonspor?
Our statistical model gives Amed a 39% chance of winning, Trabzonspor a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Amed the favourite.
Will both teams score in Amed vs Trabzonspor?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Amed and Trabzonspor will score (BTTS).
Will Amed vs Trabzonspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Amed and Trabzonspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Amed and Trabzonspor in?
Amed (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L. Trabzonspor (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Amed's attack at 1.07x the league average against Trabzonspor's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Trabzonspor's attack versus Amed's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 0-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Amed Win
39%
2.58
26%
3.87
35%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Amed xG
Total xG
2.69
1.31
Trabzonspor xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
2.82
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
25%
3.98
Win to Nil
10%
9.57
9%
11.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 8.9 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.3 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.5 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Amed vs Trabzonspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Amed and Trabzonspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Amed and 1.31 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Amed vs Trabzonspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Amed come into this having played 2 games, going 1W 0D 1L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads W-L. It's still early in the season for Amed, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Trabzonspor sit at 2.00 PPG from 2 outings (1W 1D 0L), a run that reads D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Trabzonspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Trabzonspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Amed — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
Amed are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Trabzonspor are on 1.50 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Amed have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Trabzonspor in 100%.
Defensively: Amed have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Amed
Early Season
Trabzonspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Amed and Trabzonspor in coming into this match?
Amed have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 games (1.50 PPG), while Trabzonspor have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 (2.00 PPG).
Have Amed or Trabzonspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Amed have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Trabzonspor in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
1 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 31 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Amed
0
Draws
0
Trabzonspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Amed and Trabzonspor?
From 1 meetings on record, Amed have won 1, Trabzonspor have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Amed and Trabzonspor last play each other?
They last met on 31 August 2026, when Amed 2-1 Trabzonspor.
Who has won more matches between Amed and Trabzonspor?
Amed have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Amed home games / Trabzonspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Amed play Trabzonspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Amed's recent matches and 100% of Trabzonspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Amed vs Trabzonspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Amed's recent games and 50% of Trabzonspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Amed and Trabzonspor tend to score early?
Amed have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Trabzonspor in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Amed edge out Trabzonspor 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Amed beat Trabzonspor 2-1 at Diyarbakir Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Amed 1.38 xG and Trabzonspor 1.31 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Amed attack 1.07 / defence 1.00 against Trabzonspor attack 1.09 / defence 0.94, drawn from 2/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Amed 39% | Draw 26% | Trabzonspor 35%, with Amed to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Amed 50%, Trabzonspor 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Trabzonspor arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.50. Form was overturned, with Amed winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Trabzonspor shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.