Altay 2-4 Kasımpaşa – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Kasımpaşa at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Altay vs Kasımpaşa encounter.

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Full Analysis

Alsancak Mustafa Denizli Stadı plays host to Altay versus Kasımpaşa in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 38. Kick-off: Saturday 21 May 2022 at 14:00 UTC.

Current Form

Altay's overall Süper Lig record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L W D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters this season, Altay have posted 2W 3D 5L at Alsancak Mustafa Denizli Stadı — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

Kasımpaşa (all games): 7W 0D 3L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: W W L W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Kasımpaşa have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

On a straight form reading, Kasımpaşa are the stronger side — 1.20 PPG clear of the hosts (2.10 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Altay lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Dec 2021, ended 0–2 with Kasımpaşa winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Data

Altay goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Kasımpaşa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Altay 57% and Kasımpaşa 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Altay 51% | Kasımpaşa 62%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Altay 0.96 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Altay attack 0.695 / defence 1.133 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.193 / defence 1.142. League average goals — home 1.205 / away 1.344. Altay's attack strength of 0.695 is below the league average — the 0.96 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 37 Altay games / 37 Kasımpaşa games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Altay 17% | Draw 28% | Kasımpaşa 55%. Fair-value odds: Altay 5.88 | Draw 3.57 | Kasımpaşa 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Kasımpaşa (55%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Kasımpaşa as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.77 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Altay 50% | Kasımpaşa 60% BTTS from recent games.

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