Alanyaspor 6-0 İstanbulspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Alanyaspor at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Alanyaspor vs İstanbulspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
İstanbulspor make the trip to Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu to face Alanyaspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 34. The match kicks off on Sunday 28 April 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Alanyaspor (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Alanyaspor's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
İstanbulspor have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, İstanbulspor have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Alanyaspor. A 1.30 PPG lead over İstanbulspor (1.80 vs 0.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Alanyaspor lead 1W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.7 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Dec 2023, ended 1–0 with Alanyaspor winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Alanyaspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
İstanbulspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 55% versus İstanbulspor 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 64% | İstanbulspor 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.43 xG and İstanbulspor 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 1.004 / defence 1.212 | İstanbulspor attack 0.949 / defence 0.983. League average goals — home 1.445 / away 1.224. Data: 69 Alanyaspor games / 69 İstanbulspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 36% | Draw 29% | İstanbulspor 35%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 2.78 | Draw 3.45 | İstanbulspor 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Alanyaspor as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.84 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Alanyaspor 70% | İstanbulspor 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs İstanbulspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Apr 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 36% | Draw 29% | İstanbulspor 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 59% | xG Alanyaspor 1.43 / İstanbulspor 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 1.004 / def 1.212 | İstanbulspor attack 0.949 / def 0.983 | league avg home 1.445 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.41
İstanbulspor xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alanyaspor vs İstanbulspor kick off?
Alanyaspor vs İstanbulspor kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 28 April 2024 at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Alanyaspor vs İstanbulspor?
Alanyaspor 6 - 0 İstanbulspor.
Where is Alanyaspor vs İstanbulspor being played?
The match is being played at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs İstanbulspor part of?
Alanyaspor vs İstanbulspor is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs İstanbulspor?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 36% chance of winning, İstanbulspor a 35% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs İstanbulspor?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Alanyaspor and İstanbulspor will score (BTTS).
Will Alanyaspor vs İstanbulspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and İstanbulspor?
Record (3 meetings): Alanyaspor 1W | Draws 0 | İstanbulspor 2W.
What form are Alanyaspor and İstanbulspor in?
Alanyaspor (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. İstanbulspor (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Alanyaspor's attack at 1.00x the league average against İstanbulspor's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — İstanbulspor's attack (0.95x) against Alanyaspor's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from 69/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
36%
2.77
29%
3.49
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
2.84
1.41
İstanbulspor xG
2.77
36%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
24%
4.09
24%
4.17
Win to Nil
9%
11.33
8%
11.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 8.3 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.8 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.4 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs İstanbulspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and İstanbulspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 1.41 for İstanbulspor, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs İstanbulspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Alanyaspor come into this having played 69 games, going 22W 20D 27L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-W.
On the other side, İstanbulspor sit at 0.87 PPG from 69 outings (16W 12D 41L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Alanyaspor against 0.87 for İstanbulspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Alanyaspor's home form reads 14W 10D 10L across 34 games on their own ground, a 1.53 PPG return.
Away from home, İstanbulspor have taken 0.88 points per game from 34 outings (8W 6D 20L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Alanyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Alanyaspor are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; İstanbulspor are on 1.07 scored and 1.78 conceded.
Last 69 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Current Season
İstanbulspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alanyaspor and İstanbulspor in coming into this match?
Alanyaspor have gone 22W 20D 27L in their last 69 games (1.25 PPG), while İstanbulspor have gone 16W 12D 41L in their last 69 (0.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alanyaspor at home or İstanbulspor away?
Alanyaspor's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alanyaspor at home: 1.53 PPG; İstanbulspor away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Alanyaspor have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Alanyaspor won 6-0 on 28 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Alanyaspor have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against İstanbulspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Alanyaspor
0
Draws
2
İstanbulspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and İstanbulspor?
From 4 meetings on record, Alanyaspor have won 2, İstanbulspor have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Alanyaspor and İstanbulspor last play each other?
They last met on 28 April 2024, when Alanyaspor 6-0 İstanbulspor.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
İstanbulspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alanyaspor 56%, İstanbulspor 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Alanyaspor) and 53% (İstanbulspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: İstanbulspor in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / İstanbulspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alanyaspor play İstanbulspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Alanyaspor's recent matches and 44% of İstanbulspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alanyaspor vs İstanbulspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Alanyaspor's matches and 53% of İstanbulspor's.
Do Alanyaspor and İstanbulspor tend to score early?
Alanyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, İstanbulspor in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Alanyaspor run riot with a 6-0 hammering of İstanbulspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alanyaspor beat İstanbulspor 6-0 at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu, Regular Season - 34, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 1.43 xG and İstanbulspor 1.41 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 6-0 for 6 actual goals. Alanyaspor beat their projection by 4.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. İstanbulspor landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 1.00 / defence 1.21 against İstanbulspor attack 0.95 / defence 0.98, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 36% | Draw 29% | İstanbulspor 35%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 64%, İstanbulspor 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alanyaspor's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
İstanbulspor's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Alanyaspor 1.25 PPG, İstanbulspor 0.87 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Alanyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.56 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. İstanbulspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 6 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.