Alanyaspor 3-2 Antalyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Alanyaspor at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alanyaspor vs Antalyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Antalyaspor travel to Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu to take on Alanyaspor. The game is scheduled for Friday 14 October 2022, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Alanyaspor stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu, Alanyaspor have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Alanyaspor are significantly better at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Antalyaspor — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Antalyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Antalyaspor have posted 6W 2D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Alanyaspor) versus 1.10 (Antalyaspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Alanyaspor register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Antalyaspor in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Alanyaspor, 2 for Antalyaspor and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 Apr 2022, ended 1–3 with Antalyaspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Alanyaspor in-play tendencies (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Antalyaspor in-play tendencies (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 59% versus Antalyaspor 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 56% | Antalyaspor 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.66 xG and Antalyaspor 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 1.067 / defence 1.108 | Antalyaspor attack 0.982 / defence 1.153. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.274. Data: 47 Alanyaspor games / 46 Antalyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 44% | Draw 24% | Antalyaspor 32%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 2.27 | Draw 4.17 | Antalyaspor 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.66 / 1.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Alanyaspor as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.05 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Alanyaspor 80% | Antalyaspor 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs Antalyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu • Kick-off: Friday 14 Oct 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 44% | Draw 24% | Antalyaspor 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Alanyaspor 1.66 / Antalyaspor 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 1.067 / def 1.108 | Antalyaspor attack 0.982 / def 1.153 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.274 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Antalyaspor xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alanyaspor vs Antalyaspor kick off?
Alanyaspor vs Antalyaspor kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 14 October 2022 at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Alanyaspor vs Antalyaspor?
Alanyaspor 3 - 2 Antalyaspor.
Where is Alanyaspor vs Antalyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs Antalyaspor part of?
Alanyaspor vs Antalyaspor is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 44% chance of winning, Antalyaspor a 32% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Alanyaspor and Antalyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Alanyaspor vs Antalyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Antalyaspor?
Record (2 meetings): Alanyaspor 0W | Draws 0 | Antalyaspor 2W.
What form are Alanyaspor and Antalyaspor in?
Alanyaspor (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Antalyaspor (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Alanyaspor's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Antalyaspor's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.66. The same calculation in reverse, Antalyaspor's attack versus Alanyaspor's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
44%
2.28
24%
4.12
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
3.05
1.39
Antalyaspor xG
2.28
44%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
19%
5.27
Win to Nil
11%
9.10
6%
16.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 6.6 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 10.9 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.1 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and Antalyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 1.39 for Antalyaspor, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs Antalyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Alanyaspor's recent record stands at 20W 10D 16L from 46 games, a 1.52 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Alanyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Antalyaspor, meanwhile, have gone 18W 12D 16L across 46 games — 1.43 PPG, with L-L-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Antalyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Alanyaspor on 1.52 PPG, Antalyaspor on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Alanyaspor have managed 10W 6D 6L from 22 games — 1.64 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Antalyaspor's away record stands at 7W 5D 10L across 22 trips, a 1.18 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Alanyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Alanyaspor are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Antalyaspor are on 1.37 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Blended
Antalyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alanyaspor and Antalyaspor in coming into this match?
Alanyaspor have gone 20W 10D 16L in their last 46 games (1.52 PPG), while Antalyaspor have gone 18W 12D 16L in their last 46 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alanyaspor at home or Antalyaspor away?
Alanyaspor's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alanyaspor at home: 1.64 PPG; Antalyaspor away: 1.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Alanyaspor and Antalyaspor runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Nov 2021, when Antalyaspor won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Alanyaspor's record when hosting Antalyaspor specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Alanyaspor
4
Draws
5
Antalyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Antalyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Alanyaspor have won 1, Antalyaspor have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Alanyaspor and Antalyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Antalyaspor 0-0 Alanyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Alanyaspor and Antalyaspor?
Antalyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alanyaspor 64%, Antalyaspor 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Alanyaspor) and 50% (Antalyaspor).
On the defensive side: Antalyaspor in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / Antalyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alanyaspor play Antalyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Alanyaspor's recent matches and 46% of Antalyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alanyaspor vs Antalyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Alanyaspor's recent games and 50% of Antalyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alanyaspor and Antalyaspor tend to score early?
Alanyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Antalyaspor in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Alanyaspor edge out Antalyaspor 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alanyaspor beat Antalyaspor 3-2 at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu, Regular Season - 10, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 1.66 xG and Antalyaspor 1.39 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Alanyaspor beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 1.07 / defence 1.11 against Antalyaspor attack 0.98 / defence 1.15, drawn from 47/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 44% | Draw 24% | Antalyaspor 32%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 56%, Antalyaspor 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alanyaspor's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Antalyaspor's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Alanyaspor 1.52 PPG, Antalyaspor 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Alanyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.55 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.