Alanyaspor vs Amed – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Alanyaspor at 47%, yet in-form Amed provide a compelling counter-argument — this Alanyaspor vs Amed fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Alanyaspor host Amed at Alanya Oba Stadium in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 2 May 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Alanyaspor — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Alanyaspor at Alanya Oba Stadium this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Amed stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Amed, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Amed's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 1L across 4 road games this term (1.25 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.25 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Amed — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.30 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Alanyaspor register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Amed in 75% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Alanyaspor in-play tendencies (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Amed in-play tendencies (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Alanyaspor 60% and Amed 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Alanyaspor 60% | Amed 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.59 xG and Amed 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 0.853 / defence 0.940 | Amed attack 1.003 / defence 1.175. League average goals — home 1.587 / away 1.253. Data: 43 Alanyaspor games / 10 Amed games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 47% | Draw 25% | Amed 28%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 2.13 | Draw 4.00 | Amed 3.57. Alanyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Alanyaspor are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Amed (2.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Alanyaspor 60% | Amed 75% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs Amed | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Alanya Oba Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 2 May 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 47% | Draw 25% | Amed 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Alanyaspor 1.59 / Amed 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 0.853 / def 0.940 | Amed attack 1.003 / def 1.175 | league avg home 1.587 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Amed xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alanyaspor vs Amed kick off?
Alanyaspor vs Amed is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 2 May 2027 at Alanya Oba Stadium.
Where is Alanyaspor vs Amed being played?
The match is being played at Alanya Oba Stadium.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs Amed part of?
Alanyaspor vs Amed is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs Amed?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 47% chance of winning, Amed a 28% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Amed?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Alanyaspor and Amed will score (BTTS).
Will Alanyaspor vs Amed have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Amed?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Alanyaspor and Amed in?
Alanyaspor (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. Amed (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Alanyaspor's attack rating (0.85) and Amed's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.59 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Amed's attack versus Alanyaspor's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
47%
2.14
25%
4.03
28%
3.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
2.77
1.18
Amed xG
2.14
47%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
3.52
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
31%
3.26
20%
4.90
Win to Nil
14%
6.97
6%
17.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 7.4 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 11.8 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.3 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs Amed?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and Amed expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 1.18 for Amed, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs Amed?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 10 outings, Alanyaspor have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 3W 3D 4L record — D-W-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Alanyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Amed's form line: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games, 2.30 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-W. The sample for Amed is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Amed are the form team by 1.10 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Alanyaspor.
Venue Form
On home soil, Alanyaspor have posted 1.25 PPG from 4 outings (1W 2D 1L).
On the road, Amed have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.30 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Amed's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Alanyaspor are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Amed are on 2.50 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Alanyaspor have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Amed in 60%.
Last 10 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Blended
Amed
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alanyaspor and Amed in coming into this match?
Alanyaspor have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 games (1.20 PPG), while Amed have gone 7W 2D 1L in their last 10 (2.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alanyaspor at home or Amed away?
Alanyaspor's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alanyaspor at home: 1.25 PPG; Amed away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Alanyaspor or Amed been keeping clean sheets recently?
Alanyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Amed in 30%.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Alanyaspor see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Amed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alanyaspor 50%, Amed 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Alanyaspor and 75% for Amed. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Alanyaspor keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / Amed away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alanyaspor play Amed?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Alanyaspor's games and 75% of Amed's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Alanyaspor vs Amed usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Alanyaspor's matches and 75% of Amed's.
Do Alanyaspor and Amed tend to score early?
Alanyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Amed in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.