Adana Demirspor 2-1 Beşiktaş – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Beşiktaş at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Adana Demirspor vs Beşiktaş encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Adana Demirspor and Beşiktaş meet at Yeni Adana Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Monday 16 December 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Adana Demirspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 0W 1D 9L from 10 games (0.10 PPG). Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Adana Demirspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Adana Demirspor's form when playing at home: 0W 0D 10L across 10 games at Yeni Adana Stadyumu this term (0.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 3.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Beşiktaş have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Beşiktaş, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Beşiktaş have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Beşiktaş are 1.40 PPG clear of Adana Demirspor in recent Süper Lig fixtures (1.50 vs 0.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Adana Demirspor have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Beşiktaş in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Adana Demirspor lead 1W to 2W over the last 6 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 23 Jan 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Adana Demirspor — key trading statistics (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Beşiktaş — key trading statistics (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Adana Demirspor 60% versus Beşiktaş 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Adana Demirspor 60% | Beşiktaş 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Adana Demirspor 0.76 xG and Beşiktaş 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Adana Demirspor attack 0.674 / defence 1.519 | Beşiktaş attack 0.975 / defence 0.689. League average goals — home 1.634 / away 1.178. Adana Demirspor's attack strength of 0.674 is below the league average — the 0.76 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Beşiktaş's defence strength of 0.689 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 52 Adana Demirspor games / 52 Beşiktaş games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 15% | Draw 26% | Beşiktaş 60%. Fair-value odds: Adana Demirspor 6.67 | Draw 3.85 | Beşiktaş 1.67. The model has a clear lean to Beşiktaş (60%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Beşiktaş are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Adana Demirspor 60% | Beşiktaş 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Adana Demirspor vs Beşiktaş | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Yeni Adana Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 16 Dec 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 15% | Draw 26% | Beşiktaş 60% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 45% | xG Adana Demirspor 0.76 / Beşiktaş 1.75 • Poisson strength factors: Adana Demirspor attack 0.674 / def 1.519 | Beşiktaş attack 0.975 / def 0.689 | league avg home 1.634 / away 1.178 • Poisson stance: Beşiktaş (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.76
Adana Demirspor xG
Expected Goals
1.75
Beşiktaş xG
45%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Adana Demirspor vs Beşiktaş kick off?
Adana Demirspor vs Beşiktaş kicked off at 16:00 on Monday 16 December 2024 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Adana Demirspor vs Beşiktaş?
Adana Demirspor 2 - 1 Beşiktaş.
Where is Adana Demirspor vs Beşiktaş being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What competition is Adana Demirspor vs Beşiktaş part of?
Adana Demirspor vs Beşiktaş is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Adana Demirspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our statistical model gives Adana Demirspor a 15% chance of winning, Beşiktaş a 60% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Beşiktaş the favourite.
Will both teams score in Adana Demirspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Adana Demirspor and Beşiktaş will score (BTTS).
Will Adana Demirspor vs Beşiktaş have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Beşiktaş?
Record (6 meetings): Adana Demirspor 1W | Draws 3 | Beşiktaş 2W.
What form are Adana Demirspor and Beşiktaş in?
Adana Demirspor (all comps): 0W-1D-9L in 10 | 0.10 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.40 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Beşiktaş (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Adana Demirspor's attack rating (0.67) and Beşiktaş's defence rating (0.69), the model arrives at 0.76 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Beşiktaş's attack (0.97x) against Adana Demirspor's defence (1.52x) — and the away total comes out at 1.75.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 0-2 (12.4%), 1-1 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beşiktaş Win
15%
6.87
26%
3.87
60%
1.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.4%
Away win
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.76
Adana Demirspor xG
Total xG
2.50
1.75
Beşiktaş xG
6.87
15%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
1.68
60%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
17%
5.73
47%
2.14
Win to Nil
3%
39.39
28%
3.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 14.3 | 12.4 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.8 | 9.4 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Adana Demirspor vs Beşiktaş?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Adana Demirspor and Beşiktaş expected to score?
The model projects 0.76 expected goals for Adana Demirspor and 1.75 for Beşiktaş, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Adana Demirspor vs Beşiktaş?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Adana Demirspor's recent record stands at 10W 16D 26L from 52 games, a 0.88 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Adana Demirspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Beşiktaş, meanwhile, have gone 23W 12D 17L across 52 games — 1.56 PPG, with L-D-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Beşiktaş is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Beşiktaş by 0.68 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Adana Demirspor heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Adana Demirspor have managed 9W 4D 13L from 26 games — 1.19 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Beşiktaş's away record stands at 8W 8D 10L across 26 trips, a 1.23 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Adana Demirspor are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Beşiktaş are on 1.44 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Defensively: Beşiktaş in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Adana Demirspor
Blended
Beşiktaş
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Adana Demirspor and Beşiktaş in coming into this match?
Adana Demirspor have gone 10W 16D 26L in their last 52 games (0.88 PPG), while Beşiktaş have gone 23W 12D 17L in their last 52 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Adana Demirspor at home or Beşiktaş away?
Beşiktaş's away record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Adana Demirspor at home: 1.19 PPG; Beşiktaş away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Adana Demirspor or Beşiktaş been keeping clean sheets recently?
Adana Demirspor have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Beşiktaş in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Beşiktaş won 1-4 on 21 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Adana Demirspor have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Beşiktaş — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Adana Demirspor
3
Draws
3
Beşiktaş
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Beşiktaş?
From 8 meetings on record, Adana Demirspor have won 2, Beşiktaş have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Adana Demirspor and Beşiktaş last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2025, when Beşiktaş 4-1 Adana Demirspor.
Who has won more matches between Adana Demirspor and Beşiktaş?
Beşiktaş have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Adana Demirspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Beşiktaş are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Adana Demirspor 54%, Beşiktaş 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Adana Demirspor) and 46% (Beşiktaş). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 15% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Beşiktaş in 31%; Adana Demirspor have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Adana Demirspor home games / Beşiktaş away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Adana Demirspor play Beşiktaş?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Adana Demirspor's recent matches and 54% of Beşiktaş's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Adana Demirspor vs Beşiktaş usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Adana Demirspor's matches and 46% of Beşiktaş's.
Do Adana Demirspor and Beşiktaş tend to score early?
Adana Demirspor have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Beşiktaş in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Adana Demirspor defy the odds to beat Beşiktaş 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Adana Demirspor beat Beşiktaş 2-1 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu, Regular Season - 16, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Adana Demirspor 0.76 xG and Beşiktaş 1.75 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Adana Demirspor beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Adana Demirspor attack 0.67 / defence 1.52 against Beşiktaş attack 0.97 / defence 0.69, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Adana Demirspor 15% | Draw 26% | Beşiktaş 60%, with Beşiktaş to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a Adana Demirspor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Adana Demirspor 60%, Beşiktaş 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Beşiktaş's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Beşiktaş arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 0.88. Form was overturned, with Adana Demirspor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Adana Demirspor (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.