Uthai Thani 4-2 Rasi Salai United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Uthai Thani at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Uthai Thani vs Rasi Salai United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Rasi Salai United make the trip to Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium to face Uthai Thani in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Saturday 10 October 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Uthai Thani's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Uthai Thani have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Uthai Thani have posted 5W 2D 3L at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Uthai Thani are significantly better at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Rasi Salai United (all games): 0W 1D 2L across 3 Thai League 1 outings this term — 0.33 points per game. Last five: L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.33 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Rasi Salai United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form favours the hosts. Uthai Thani's 1.20 PPG return is 0.87 points per game ahead of Rasi Salai United's 0.33 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading
Uthai Thani half-time and goal-timing data (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games.
Rasi Salai United half-time and goal-timing data (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Uthai Thani 100% and Rasi Salai United 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Uthai Thani 100% | Rasi Salai United 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Uthai Thani 1.75 xG and Rasi Salai United 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Uthai Thani attack 0.980 / defence 1.069 | Rasi Salai United attack 0.964 / defence 1.282. League average goals — home 1.392 / away 1.199. Rasi Salai United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.282 — this is suppressing Uthai Thani's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Uthai Thani games / 3 Rasi Salai United games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Uthai Thani 49% | Draw 24% | Rasi Salai United 27%. Fair-value odds: Uthai Thani 2.04 | Draw 4.17 | Rasi Salai United 3.70. Uthai Thani hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Uthai Thani at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Uthai Thani if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.99 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Uthai Thani 50% | Rasi Salai United 100% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Uthai Thani vs Rasi Salai United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Uthai Thani 49% | Draw 24% | Rasi Salai United 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG Uthai Thani 1.75 / Rasi Salai United 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Uthai Thani attack 0.980 / def 1.069 | Rasi Salai United attack 0.964 / def 1.282 | league avg home 1.392 / away 1.199 • Poisson stance: Uthai Thani (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Uthai Thani xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Rasi Salai United xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Uthai Thani vs Rasi Salai United kick off?
Uthai Thani vs Rasi Salai United kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 10 October 2026 at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium.
What was the final score in Uthai Thani vs Rasi Salai United?
Uthai Thani 4 - 2 Rasi Salai United.
Where is Uthai Thani vs Rasi Salai United being played?
The match is being played at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium.
What competition is Uthai Thani vs Rasi Salai United part of?
Uthai Thani vs Rasi Salai United is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Uthai Thani vs Rasi Salai United?
Our statistical model gives Uthai Thani a 49% chance of winning, Rasi Salai United a 27% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Uthai Thani the favourite.
Will both teams score in Uthai Thani vs Rasi Salai United?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Uthai Thani and Rasi Salai United will score (BTTS).
Will Uthai Thani vs Rasi Salai United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Uthai Thani and Rasi Salai United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Uthai Thani and Rasi Salai United in?
Uthai Thani (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Rasi Salai United (all comps): 0W-1D-2L in 3 | 0.33 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Uthai Thani's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Rasi Salai United's defensive record (1.28x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.75. Flip it around — Rasi Salai United's attack (0.96x) against Uthai Thani's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
The sample (33/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Uthai Thani Win
49%
2.02
24%
4.25
27%
3.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Uthai Thani xG
Total xG
2.99
1.24
Rasi Salai United xG
2.02
49%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
3.70
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
29%
3.44
17%
5.75
Win to Nil
14%
6.96
5%
21.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 6.2 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 10.9 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.6 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Uthai Thani vs Rasi Salai United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Uthai Thani and Rasi Salai United expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Uthai Thani and 1.24 for Rasi Salai United, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Uthai Thani vs Rasi Salai United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 3 outings, Uthai Thani have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 2W 0D 1L record — W-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Uthai Thani, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Rasi Salai United's form line: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games, 0.33 PPG, last five L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Rasi Salai United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Uthai Thani are the form team by 1.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Rasi Salai United.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Uthai Thani are averaging 2.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Rasi Salai United are on 1.33 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Uthai Thani have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Rasi Salai United in 100%.
Last 3 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Uthai Thani
Early Season
Rasi Salai United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Uthai Thani and Rasi Salai United in coming into this match?
Uthai Thani have gone 2W 0D 1L in their last 3 games (2.00 PPG), while Rasi Salai United have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 (0.33 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 1 times since October 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. The two were last together as recently as 10 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Uthai Thani
0
Draws
0
Rasi Salai United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Uthai Thani and Rasi Salai United?
From 1 meetings on record, Uthai Thani have won 1, Rasi Salai United have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Uthai Thani and Rasi Salai United last play each other?
They last met on 10 October 2026, when Uthai Thani 4-2 Rasi Salai United.
Who has won more matches between Uthai Thani and Rasi Salai United?
Uthai Thani have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Uthai Thani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Rasi Salai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for Uthai Thani, 100% for Rasi Salai United — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Uthai Thani and 67% for Rasi Salai United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Uthai Thani home games / Rasi Salai United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Uthai Thani play Rasi Salai United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Uthai Thani's games and 100% of Rasi Salai United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Uthai Thani vs Rasi Salai United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Uthai Thani's matches and 67% of Rasi Salai United's.
Do Uthai Thani and Rasi Salai United tend to score early?
Uthai Thani have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Rasi Salai United in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Uthai Thani cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Rasi Salai United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Uthai Thani beat Rasi Salai United 4-2 at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Uthai Thani 1.75 xG and Rasi Salai United 1.24 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Uthai Thani beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Uthai Thani attack 0.98 / defence 1.07 against Rasi Salai United attack 0.96 / defence 1.28, drawn from 33/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Uthai Thani 49% | Draw 24% | Rasi Salai United 27%, with Uthai Thani to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 83% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Uthai Thani 100%, Rasi Salai United 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Uthai Thani's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did.
Rasi Salai United's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Uthai Thani arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.33. Form held, and they took the win. Uthai Thani scored 4 against a 2.33 average — above their attacking norm. Rasi Salai United shipped 4 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.