Uthai Thani 1-1 Nakhon Pathom – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Uthai Thani at 36% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Uthai Thani face Nakhon Pathom.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Uthai Thani and Nakhon Pathom meet at Uthai Thani Province Stadium in Thai League 1 (matchday 18). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 18 February 2024 at 12:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Uthai Thani have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W D L D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Uthai Thani's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 4L across their last 9 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Nakhon Pathom's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Nakhon Pathom's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 4L across their last 8 road games (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.38 goals scored and 2.12 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Uthai Thani, 1.20 for Nakhon Pathom — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Nakhon Pathom edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 18 Sep 2023, ended Uthai Thani 1–2 Nakhon Pathom — a Nakhon Pathom win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Uthai Thani goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 17 games, 8 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 35% of games.

Nakhon Pathom goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 17 games, 8 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Uthai Thani 53% and Nakhon Pathom 76% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Uthai Thani 59% | Nakhon Pathom 65%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Uthai Thani 1.46 xG and Nakhon Pathom 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Uthai Thani attack 0.752 / defence 1.182 | Nakhon Pathom attack 0.975 / defence 1.168. League average goals — home 1.662 / away 1.262. Uthai Thani's attack rating of 0.752 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.46. Data: built from Uthai Thani's last 17 games and Nakhon Pathom's last 17.

Result probabilities: Uthai Thani 36% | Draw 28% | Nakhon Pathom 36%. Fair-value odds: Uthai Thani 2.79 | Draw 3.52 | Nakhon Pathom 2.80. The model can't separate the sides — both are rated at 36% to win, with the draw at 28%. There is no result lean here.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.46 / 1.46) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

The Poisson model can't separate the sides — Uthai Thani 36% and Nakhon Pathom 36%, with the draw at 28%. There is no result lean from the model; the goals and BTTS markets below are where it has a view.

The Poisson model projects 2.92 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Uthai Thani's last 9 home games and Nakhon Pathom's last 8 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Uthai Thani 56% (last 9 home games) | Nakhon Pathom 75% (last 8 away games).

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