Uthai Thani 0-1 Buriram United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Uthai Thani at 43%, yet in-form Buriram United provide a compelling counter-argument — this Uthai Thani vs Buriram United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Buriram United make the trip to Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium to face Uthai Thani in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Friday 9 January 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Uthai Thani (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Uthai Thani, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Uthai Thani have posted 3W 4D 3L at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium — 1.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Buriram United's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Buriram United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Buriram United have posted 7W 1D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Buriram United are 0.80 PPG clear of Uthai Thani in recent Thai League 1 fixtures (2.30 vs 1.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Uthai Thani register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Buriram United in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Buriram United hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 5 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2025, ended 1–5 with Buriram United winning.
It is worth noting that Buriram United have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Uthai Thani half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Buriram United half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Uthai Thani 62% versus Buriram United 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Uthai Thani 51% | Buriram United 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Uthai Thani 1.87 xG and Buriram United 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Uthai Thani attack 1.400 / defence 0.952 | Buriram United attack 1.364 / defence 0.875. League average goals — home 1.526 / away 1.216. Uthai Thani carry an above-average attack strength of 1.400 — their λ of 1.87 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Buriram United have an above-average attack strength of 1.364 — the away xG of 1.58 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 45 Uthai Thani games / 46 Buriram United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Uthai Thani 43% | Draw 26% | Buriram United 31%. Fair-value odds: Uthai Thani 2.33 | Draw 3.85 | Buriram United 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.45. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.45 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.87 / 1.58) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Uthai Thani at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Buriram United (2.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Uthai Thani if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.45 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Uthai Thani 70% | Buriram United 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Uthai Thani vs Buriram United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 9 Jan 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Uthai Thani 43% | Draw 26% | Buriram United 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 69% | xG Uthai Thani 1.87 / Buriram United 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Uthai Thani attack 1.400 / def 0.952 | Buriram United attack 1.364 / def 0.875 | league avg home 1.526 / away 1.216 • Poisson stance: Uthai Thani (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Uthai Thani xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Buriram United xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Uthai Thani vs Buriram United kick off?
Uthai Thani vs Buriram United kicked off at 12:00 on Friday 9 January 2026 at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium.
What was the final score in Uthai Thani vs Buriram United?
Uthai Thani 0 - 1 Buriram United.
Where is Uthai Thani vs Buriram United being played?
The match is being played at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium.
What competition is Uthai Thani vs Buriram United part of?
Uthai Thani vs Buriram United is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Uthai Thani vs Buriram United?
Our statistical model gives Uthai Thani a 43% chance of winning, Buriram United a 31% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Uthai Thani the favourite.
Will both teams score in Uthai Thani vs Buriram United?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Uthai Thani and Buriram United will score (BTTS).
Will Uthai Thani vs Buriram United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Uthai Thani and Buriram United?
Record (5 meetings): Uthai Thani 0W | Draws 1 | Buriram United 4W.
What form are Uthai Thani and Buriram United in?
Uthai Thani (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-L-W. Buriram United (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Uthai Thani's attack rating (1.40) and Buriram United's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.87 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Buriram United's attack (1.36x) against Uthai Thani's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.58.
These ratings are built from 45/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Uthai Thani Win
43%
2.32
26%
3.86
31%
3.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Uthai Thani xG
Total xG
3.45
1.58
Buriram United xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
3.22
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.22
Clean Sheet
21%
4.85
15%
6.49
Win to Nil
9%
11.26
5%
20.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 9.4 | 7.4 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.8 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.5 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Uthai Thani vs Buriram United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Uthai Thani and Buriram United expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Uthai Thani and 1.58 for Buriram United, a combined total of 3.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Uthai Thani vs Buriram United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 45 outings, Uthai Thani have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 13W 15D 17L record — W-D-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Uthai Thani is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Buriram United's form line: 34W 6D 5L from 45 games, 2.40 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-D. The sample for Buriram United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Buriram United are the form team by 1.20 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Uthai Thani.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Uthai Thani have posted 1.50 PPG from 22 outings (8W 9D 5L).
On the road, Buriram United have gone 15W 4D 3L from 22 away games — 2.23 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Buriram United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Uthai Thani are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Buriram United are on 2.82 scored and 0.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Uthai Thani have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Buriram United in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Uthai Thani
Blended
Buriram United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Uthai Thani and Buriram United in coming into this match?
Uthai Thani have gone 13W 15D 17L in their last 45 games (1.20 PPG), while Buriram United have gone 34W 6D 5L in their last 45 (2.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Uthai Thani at home or Buriram United away?
Buriram United's away record (2.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Uthai Thani at home: 1.50 PPG; Buriram United away: 2.23 PPG.
Have Uthai Thani or Buriram United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Uthai Thani have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Buriram United in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 9 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Buriram United have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Buriram United won 4-0 on 23 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Uthai Thani have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Buriram United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Uthai Thani
1
Draws
5
Buriram United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Uthai Thani and Buriram United?
From 6 meetings on record, Uthai Thani have won 0, Buriram United have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Uthai Thani and Buriram United last play each other?
They last met on 9 January 2026, when Uthai Thani 0-1 Buriram United.
Who has won more matches between Uthai Thani and Buriram United?
Buriram United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Uthai Thani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Buriram United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Uthai Thani 59%, Buriram United 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Uthai Thani and 73% for Buriram United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Uthai Thani keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Buriram United in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Uthai Thani home games / Buriram United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Uthai Thani play Buriram United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Uthai Thani's games and 68% of Buriram United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Uthai Thani vs Buriram United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Uthai Thani's matches and 73% of Buriram United's.
Do Uthai Thani and Buriram United tend to score early?
Uthai Thani have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Buriram United in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Buriram United defy the odds to beat Uthai Thani 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Buriram United beat Uthai Thani 0-1 at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Uthai Thani 1.87 xG and Buriram United 1.58 xG, a combined 3.45. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Uthai Thani fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Uthai Thani attack 1.40 / defence 0.95 against Buriram United attack 1.36 / defence 0.88, drawn from 45/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Uthai Thani 43% | Draw 26% | Buriram United 31%, with Uthai Thani to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Buriram United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Uthai Thani 51%, Buriram United 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Uthai Thani's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Buriram United's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.40 PPG against 1.20. Form held, and they took the win. Uthai Thani (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.77 scoring average — below par going forward. Buriram United (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.36 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.