Sukhothai FC 5-1 Rasi Salai United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sukhothai FC at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sukhothai FC vs Rasi Salai United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sukhothai FC host Rasi Salai United at Thung Thalay Luang Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 17 October 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sukhothai FC — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Sukhothai FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sukhothai FC's home record at Thung Thalay Luang Stadium: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Sukhothai FC are significantly better at Thung Thalay Luang Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rasi Salai United stand at 0W 1D 3L from 4 Thai League 1 matches — 0.25 PPG. Last five: L L D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.50. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Rasi Salai United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sukhothai FC 0.70 PPG, Rasi Salai United 0.25 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using overall form). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Data
Sukhothai FC trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Rasi Salai United trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sukhothai FC 50% and Rasi Salai United 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sukhothai FC 75% | Rasi Salai United 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sukhothai FC 2.33 xG and Rasi Salai United 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sukhothai FC attack 1.045 / defence 1.064 | Rasi Salai United attack 1.038 / defence 1.504. League average goals — home 1.480 / away 1.287. Rasi Salai United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.504 — this is suppressing Sukhothai FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 34 Sukhothai FC games / 4 Rasi Salai United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 58% | Draw 20% | Rasi Salai United 23%. Fair-value odds: Sukhothai FC 1.72 | Draw 5.00 | Rasi Salai United 4.35. The model has a clear lean to Sukhothai FC (58%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.75. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.75 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (2.33 / 1.42) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sukhothai FC as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 72% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sukhothai FC 70% | Rasi Salai United 100% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sukhothai FC vs Rasi Salai United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Thung Thalay Luang Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 58% | Draw 20% | Rasi Salai United 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 68% | xG Sukhothai FC 2.33 / Rasi Salai United 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Sukhothai FC attack 1.045 / def 1.064 | Rasi Salai United attack 1.038 / def 1.504 | league avg home 1.480 / away 1.287 • Poisson stance: Sukhothai FC (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.33
Sukhothai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Rasi Salai United xG
68%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sukhothai FC vs Rasi Salai United kick off?
Sukhothai FC vs Rasi Salai United kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 17 October 2026 at Thung Thalay Luang Stadium.
What was the final score in Sukhothai FC vs Rasi Salai United?
Sukhothai FC 5 - 1 Rasi Salai United.
Where is Sukhothai FC vs Rasi Salai United being played?
The match is being played at Thung Thalay Luang Stadium.
What competition is Sukhothai FC vs Rasi Salai United part of?
Sukhothai FC vs Rasi Salai United is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Sukhothai FC vs Rasi Salai United?
Our statistical model gives Sukhothai FC a 58% chance of winning, Rasi Salai United a 23% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Sukhothai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sukhothai FC vs Rasi Salai United?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Sukhothai FC and Rasi Salai United will score (BTTS).
Will Sukhothai FC vs Rasi Salai United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Rasi Salai United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sukhothai FC and Rasi Salai United in?
Sukhothai FC (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Rasi Salai United (all comps): 0W-1D-3L in 4 | 0.25 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sukhothai FC's attack at 1.04x the league average against Rasi Salai United's defence at 1.50x — combine the two and it projects 2.33 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Rasi Salai United's attack versus Sukhothai FC's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.8%), 3-1 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sukhothai FC Win
58%
1.73
20%
5.10
23%
4.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.8%
Draw
3 – 1
7.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.33
Sukhothai FC xG
Total xG
3.75
1.42
Rasi Salai United xG
1.73
58%
Home win
5.10
20%
Draw
4.41
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.46
32%
BTTS No
3.17
Clean Sheet
24%
4.14
10%
10.23
Win to Nil
14%
7.18
2%
45.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 7.8 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.1 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sukhothai FC vs Rasi Salai United?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are Sukhothai FC and Rasi Salai United expected to score?
The model projects 2.33 expected goals for Sukhothai FC and 1.42 for Rasi Salai United, a combined total of 3.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Sukhothai FC vs Rasi Salai United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sukhothai FC's recent record stands at 1W 0D 3L from 4 games, a 0.75 PPG return, with L-L-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Rasi Salai United, meanwhile, have gone 0W 1D 3L across 4 games — 0.25 PPG, with L-L-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Rasi Salai United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sukhothai FC by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Rasi Salai United heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
Sukhothai FC are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 2.75 conceded per game recently; Rasi Salai United are on 1.50 scored and 2.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rasi Salai United in 100%.
Last 4 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sukhothai FC
Early Season
Rasi Salai United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sukhothai FC and Rasi Salai United in coming into this match?
Sukhothai FC have gone 1W 0D 3L in their last 4 games (0.75 PPG), while Rasi Salai United have gone 0W 1D 3L in their last 4 (0.25 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
1 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. The two were last together as recently as 17 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Sukhothai FC
0
Draws
0
Rasi Salai United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Rasi Salai United?
From 1 meetings on record, Sukhothai FC have won 1, Rasi Salai United have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sukhothai FC and Rasi Salai United last play each other?
They last met on 17 October 2026, when Sukhothai FC 5-1 Rasi Salai United.
Who has won more matches between Sukhothai FC and Rasi Salai United?
Sukhothai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sukhothai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Rasi Salai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Sukhothai FC at 50%, Rasi Salai United at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Sukhothai FC and 75% for Rasi Salai United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sukhothai FC have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sukhothai FC home games / Rasi Salai United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sukhothai FC play Rasi Salai United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Sukhothai FC's games and 100% of Rasi Salai United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sukhothai FC vs Rasi Salai United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Sukhothai FC's matches and 75% of Rasi Salai United's.
Do Sukhothai FC and Rasi Salai United tend to score early?
Sukhothai FC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Rasi Salai United in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sukhothai FC run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Rasi Salai United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sukhothai FC beat Rasi Salai United 5-1 at Thung Thalay Luang Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sukhothai FC 2.33 xG and Rasi Salai United 1.42 xG, a combined 3.75. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Sukhothai FC beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sukhothai FC attack 1.04 / defence 1.06 against Rasi Salai United attack 1.04 / defence 1.50, drawn from 34/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sukhothai FC 58% | Draw 20% | Rasi Salai United 23%, with Sukhothai FC to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sukhothai FC 75%, Rasi Salai United 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sukhothai FC's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Rasi Salai United's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sukhothai FC arrived the stronger side — 0.75 PPG against 0.25. That form edge translated into the three points. Sukhothai FC scored 5 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.75 average — tighter than their form line. Rasi Salai United shipped 5 against a 2.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.