Sukhothai FC 2-1 Port FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Port FC at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sukhothai FC vs Port FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sukhothai FC and Port FC meet at Thung Talay Luang Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Friday 27 October 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sukhothai FC's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Sukhothai FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sukhothai FC's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Thung Talay Luang Stadium this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Sukhothai FC are significantly better at Thung Talay Luang Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Port FC have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Port FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Port FC's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Port FC arrive in superior form — a 1.70 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 0.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Sukhothai FC lead 0W to 2W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 19 Mar 2023, ended 0–2 with Port FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Sukhothai FC — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Port FC — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sukhothai FC 49% and Port FC 81% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sukhothai FC 46% | Port FC 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sukhothai FC 1.23 xG and Port FC 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sukhothai FC attack 0.741 / defence 1.006 | Port FC attack 1.370 / defence 0.965. League average goals — home 1.720 / away 1.280. Sukhothai FC's attack strength of 0.741 is below the league average — the 1.23 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Port FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.370 — the away xG of 1.76 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 37 Sukhothai FC games / 38 Port FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 26% | Draw 25% | Port FC 49%. Fair-value odds: Sukhothai FC 3.85 | Draw 4.00 | Port FC 2.04. Port FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Port FC as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Port FC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.00 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sukhothai FC 50% | Port FC 100% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sukhothai FC vs Port FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Thung Talay Luang Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 27 Oct 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 26% | Draw 25% | Port FC 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 59% | xG Sukhothai FC 1.23 / Port FC 1.76 • Poisson strength factors: Sukhothai FC attack 0.741 / def 1.006 | Port FC attack 1.370 / def 0.965 | league avg home 1.720 / away 1.280 • Poisson stance: Port FC (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Sukhothai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.76
Port FC xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sukhothai FC vs Port FC kick off?
Sukhothai FC vs Port FC kicked off at 14:00 on Friday 27 October 2023 at Thung Talay Luang Stadium.
What was the final score in Sukhothai FC vs Port FC?
Sukhothai FC 2 - 1 Port FC.
Where is Sukhothai FC vs Port FC being played?
The match is being played at Thung Talay Luang Stadium.
What competition is Sukhothai FC vs Port FC part of?
Sukhothai FC vs Port FC is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Sukhothai FC vs Port FC?
Our statistical model gives Sukhothai FC a 26% chance of winning, Port FC a 49% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sukhothai FC vs Port FC?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Sukhothai FC and Port FC will score (BTTS).
Will Sukhothai FC vs Port FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Port FC?
Record (2 meetings): Sukhothai FC 0W | Draws 0 | Port FC 2W.
What form are Sukhothai FC and Port FC in?
Sukhothai FC (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Port FC (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Sukhothai FC's attack at 0.74x the league average against Port FC's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Port FC's attack (1.37x) against Sukhothai FC's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.76.
These ratings are built from 37/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
26%
3.85
25%
4.03
49%
2.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Sukhothai FC xG
Total xG
3.00
1.76
Port FC xG
3.85
26%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
2.03
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
17%
5.84
29%
3.42
Win to Nil
4%
22.49
14%
6.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 8.8 | 7.8 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.9 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.7 | 5.9 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sukhothai FC vs Port FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Sukhothai FC and Port FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Sukhothai FC and 1.76 for Port FC, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Sukhothai FC vs Port FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sukhothai FC's recent record stands at 9W 11D 17L from 37 games, a 1.03 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Port FC, meanwhile, have gone 20W 10D 7L across 37 games — 1.89 PPG, with W-L-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Port FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Port FC by 0.86 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sukhothai FC heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Sukhothai FC have managed 6W 5D 7L from 18 games — 1.28 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Port FC's away record stands at 7W 7D 4L across 18 trips, a 1.56 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Sukhothai FC are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Port FC are on 2.11 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Port FC in 81%.
Last 37 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sukhothai FC
Early Season
Port FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sukhothai FC and Port FC in coming into this match?
Sukhothai FC have gone 9W 11D 17L in their last 37 games (1.03 PPG), while Port FC have gone 20W 10D 7L in their last 37 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sukhothai FC at home or Port FC away?
Port FC's away record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sukhothai FC at home: 1.28 PPG; Port FC away: 1.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 10 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Port FC won 5-0 on 10 Jan 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sukhothai FC have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Port FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Sukhothai FC
0
Draws
5
Port FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Port FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Sukhothai FC have won 3, Port FC have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sukhothai FC and Port FC last play each other?
They last met on 10 January 2026, when Port FC 5-0 Sukhothai FC.
Who has won more matches between Sukhothai FC and Port FC?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sukhothai FC see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sukhothai FC 33%, Port FC 78% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Sukhothai FC) and 61% (Port FC).
On the defensive side: Sukhothai FC keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Sukhothai FC have failed to score in 39% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sukhothai FC home games / Port FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sukhothai FC play Port FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 33% of Sukhothai FC's games and 78% of Port FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sukhothai FC vs Port FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Sukhothai FC's recent games and 61% of Port FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sukhothai FC and Port FC tend to score early?
Sukhothai FC have had a goal before half-time in 44% of their recent matches, Port FC in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sukhothai FC defy the odds to beat Port FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sukhothai FC beat Port FC 2-1 at Thung Talay Luang Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sukhothai FC 1.23 xG and Port FC 1.76 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sukhothai FC attack 0.74 / defence 1.01 against Port FC attack 1.37 / defence 0.96, drawn from 37/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sukhothai FC 26% | Draw 25% | Port FC 49%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Sukhothai FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sukhothai FC 46%, Port FC 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sukhothai FC's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Port FC's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 81% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Port FC arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.03. Form was overturned, with Sukhothai FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sukhothai FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.