Sukhothai FC 3-2 Chonburi FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Chonburi FC at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sukhothai FC vs Chonburi FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Chonburi FC travel to Thung Talay Luang Stadium to take on Sukhothai FC. The game is scheduled for Friday 10 November 2023, 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Sukhothai FC have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sukhothai FC's home record at Thung Talay Luang Stadium: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Sukhothai FC are significantly better at Thung Talay Luang Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Chonburi FC stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Chonburi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chonburi FC's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Sukhothai FC) versus 1.00 (Chonburi FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Sukhothai FC, 0 for Chonburi FC and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 4 Apr 2023, ended 1–0 with Sukhothai FC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Sukhothai FC in-play and half-time data (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Chonburi FC in-play and half-time data (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sukhothai FC 53% versus Chonburi FC 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sukhothai FC 47% | Chonburi FC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sukhothai FC 1.36 xG and Chonburi FC 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sukhothai FC attack 0.845 / defence 0.951 | Chonburi FC attack 1.199 / defence 0.963. League average goals — home 1.678 / away 1.256. Data: 39 Sukhothai FC games / 38 Chonburi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 36% | Draw 26% | Chonburi FC 39%. Fair-value odds: Sukhothai FC 2.78 | Draw 3.85 | Chonburi FC 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chonburi FC at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chonburi FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.80 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sukhothai FC 50% | Chonburi FC 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sukhothai FC vs Chonburi FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Thung Talay Luang Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 10 Nov 2023, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 36% | Draw 26% | Chonburi FC 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Sukhothai FC 1.36 / Chonburi FC 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Sukhothai FC attack 0.845 / def 0.951 | Chonburi FC attack 1.199 / def 0.963 | league avg home 1.678 / away 1.256 • Poisson stance: Chonburi FC (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Sukhothai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Chonburi FC xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sukhothai FC vs Chonburi FC kick off?
Sukhothai FC vs Chonburi FC kicked off at 11:00 on Friday 10 November 2023 at Thung Talay Luang Stadium.
What was the final score in Sukhothai FC vs Chonburi FC?
Sukhothai FC 3 - 2 Chonburi FC.
Where is Sukhothai FC vs Chonburi FC being played?
The match is being played at Thung Talay Luang Stadium.
What competition is Sukhothai FC vs Chonburi FC part of?
Sukhothai FC vs Chonburi FC is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Sukhothai FC vs Chonburi FC?
Our statistical model gives Sukhothai FC a 36% chance of winning, Chonburi FC a 39% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Chonburi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sukhothai FC vs Chonburi FC?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Sukhothai FC and Chonburi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Sukhothai FC vs Chonburi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Chonburi FC?
Record (2 meetings): Sukhothai FC 1W | Draws 1 | Chonburi FC 0W.
What form are Sukhothai FC and Chonburi FC in?
Sukhothai FC (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Chonburi FC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Sukhothai FC's attack rating (0.84) and Chonburi FC's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Chonburi FC's attack versus Sukhothai FC's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chonburi FC Win
36%
2.81
26%
3.86
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Sukhothai FC xG
Total xG
2.80
1.43
Chonburi FC xG
2.81
36%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
24%
4.19
26%
3.92
Win to Nil
8%
11.78
10%
10.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 8.7 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.9 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.1 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sukhothai FC vs Chonburi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Sukhothai FC and Chonburi FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Sukhothai FC and 1.43 for Chonburi FC, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Sukhothai FC vs Chonburi FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 38 outings, Sukhothai FC have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 10W 12D 16L record — L-L-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Sukhothai FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chonburi FC's form line: 15W 8D 15L from 38 games, 1.39 PPG, last five W-L-D-D-W. The sample for Chonburi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sukhothai FC on 1.11 PPG, Chonburi FC on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Sukhothai FC have posted 1.44 PPG from 18 outings (7W 5D 6L).
On the road, Chonburi FC have gone 4W 5D 9L from 18 away games — 0.94 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.39 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Chonburi FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sukhothai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sukhothai FC are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Chonburi FC are on 1.47 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sukhothai FC
Blended
Chonburi FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sukhothai FC and Chonburi FC in coming into this match?
Sukhothai FC have gone 10W 12D 16L in their last 38 games (1.11 PPG), while Chonburi FC have gone 15W 8D 15L in their last 38 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sukhothai FC at home or Chonburi FC away?
Sukhothai FC's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sukhothai FC at home: 1.44 PPG; Chonburi FC away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sukhothai FC and Chonburi FC runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sukhothai FC's record when hosting Chonburi FC specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Sukhothai FC
1
Draws
2
Chonburi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Chonburi FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Sukhothai FC have won 3, Chonburi FC have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sukhothai FC and Chonburi FC last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Chonburi FC 2-0 Sukhothai FC.
Who has won more matches between Sukhothai FC and Chonburi FC?
Sukhothai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sukhothai FC see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Chonburi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sukhothai FC 39%, Chonburi FC 72% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Sukhothai FC) and 61% (Chonburi FC).
On the defensive side: Sukhothai FC keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Sukhothai FC have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sukhothai FC home games / Chonburi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sukhothai FC play Chonburi FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 39% of Sukhothai FC's games and 72% of Chonburi FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sukhothai FC vs Chonburi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Sukhothai FC's recent games and 61% of Chonburi FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sukhothai FC and Chonburi FC tend to score early?
Sukhothai FC have had a goal before half-time in 44% of their recent matches, Chonburi FC in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sukhothai FC defy the odds to beat Chonburi FC 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sukhothai FC beat Chonburi FC 3-2 at Thung Talay Luang Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sukhothai FC 1.36 xG and Chonburi FC 1.43 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Sukhothai FC beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sukhothai FC attack 0.84 / defence 0.95 against Chonburi FC attack 1.20 / defence 0.96, drawn from 39/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sukhothai FC 36% | Draw 26% | Chonburi FC 39%, with Chonburi FC to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Sukhothai FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sukhothai FC 47%, Chonburi FC 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sukhothai FC's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Chonburi FC's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sukhothai FC 1.11 PPG, Chonburi FC 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sukhothai FC win broke the near-deadlock. Sukhothai FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Chonburi FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.61 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.