Rayong FC vs Chonburi FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chonburi FC at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rayong FC vs Chonburi FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 16 as Rayong FC welcome Chonburi FC to Rayong Provincial Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 7 February 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Rayong FC have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Rayong FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Rayong FC's home record at Rayong Provincial Stadium: 3W 6D 1L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Chonburi FC — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Chonburi FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Chonburi FC have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Rayong FC) versus 1.10 (Chonburi FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Rayong FC, 1 for Chonburi FC and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2026, ended 3–2 with Rayong FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Rayong FC in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Chonburi FC in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rayong FC 76% and Chonburi FC 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rayong FC 54% | Chonburi FC 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rayong FC 1.19 xG and Chonburi FC 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rayong FC attack 0.840 / defence 1.033 | Chonburi FC attack 0.915 / defence 0.980. League average goals — home 1.441 / away 1.436. Data: 37 Rayong FC games / 37 Chonburi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rayong FC 33% | Draw 27% | Chonburi FC 41%. Fair-value odds: Rayong FC 3.03 | Draw 3.70 | Chonburi FC 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chonburi FC at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chonburi FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Rayong FC 70% | Chonburi FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rayong FC vs Chonburi FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Rayong Provincial Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Feb 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rayong FC 33% | Draw 27% | Chonburi FC 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Rayong FC 1.19 / Chonburi FC 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Rayong FC attack 0.840 / def 1.033 | Chonburi FC attack 0.915 / def 0.980 | league avg home 1.441 / away 1.436 • Poisson stance: Chonburi FC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Rayong FC xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Chonburi FC xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rayong FC vs Chonburi FC kick off?
Rayong FC vs Chonburi FC is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 7 February 2027 at Rayong Provincial Stadium.
Where is Rayong FC vs Chonburi FC being played?
The match is being played at Rayong Provincial Stadium.
What competition is Rayong FC vs Chonburi FC part of?
Rayong FC vs Chonburi FC is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Rayong FC vs Chonburi FC?
Our statistical model gives Rayong FC a 33% chance of winning, Chonburi FC a 41% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Chonburi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rayong FC vs Chonburi FC?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Rayong FC and Chonburi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Rayong FC vs Chonburi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rayong FC and Chonburi FC?
Record (3 meetings): Rayong FC 2W | Draws 0 | Chonburi FC 1W.
What form are Rayong FC and Chonburi FC in?
Rayong FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Chonburi FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Rayong FC's attack at 0.84x the league average against Chonburi FC's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Chonburi FC's attack versus Rayong FC's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chonburi FC Win
33%
3.08
27%
3.72
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Rayong FC xG
Total xG
2.54
1.36
Chonburi FC xG
3.08
33%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
26%
3.89
31%
3.27
Win to Nil
8%
11.96
12%
8.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 10.7 | 7.2 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.7 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.5 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rayong FC vs Chonburi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Rayong FC and Chonburi FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Rayong FC and 1.36 for Chonburi FC, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Rayong FC vs Chonburi FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Rayong FC's recent record stands at 11W 12D 14L from 37 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with D-L-D-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Rayong FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Chonburi FC, meanwhile, have gone 12W 9D 16L across 37 games — 1.22 PPG, with L-L-L-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Chonburi FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rayong FC on 1.22 PPG, Chonburi FC on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Rayong FC have managed 8W 8D 2L from 18 games — 1.78 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.22 PPG overall — Rayong FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Chonburi FC's away record stands at 5W 4D 9L across 18 trips, a 1.06 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rayong FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Rayong FC are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Chonburi FC are on 1.22 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rayong FC have seen both teams score in 76% of their recent games.
Last 37 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rayong FC
Early Season
Chonburi FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rayong FC and Chonburi FC in coming into this match?
Rayong FC have gone 11W 12D 14L in their last 37 games (1.22 PPG), while Chonburi FC have gone 12W 9D 16L in their last 37 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rayong FC at home or Chonburi FC away?
Rayong FC's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rayong FC at home: 1.78 PPG; Chonburi FC away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. The two were last together as recently as 13 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Apr 2026, when Chonburi FC won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Rayong FC
0
Draws
1
Chonburi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rayong FC and Chonburi FC?
From 3 meetings on record, Rayong FC have won 2, Chonburi FC have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Rayong FC and Chonburi FC last play each other?
They last met on 13 September 2026, when Chonburi FC 2-3 Rayong FC.
Who has won more matches between Rayong FC and Chonburi FC?
Rayong FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rayong FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Chonburi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rayong FC 67%, Chonburi FC 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Rayong FC) and 61% (Chonburi FC).
On the defensive side: Chonburi FC in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rayong FC home games / Chonburi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rayong FC play Chonburi FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Rayong FC's games and 56% of Chonburi FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rayong FC vs Chonburi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Rayong FC's recent games and 61% of Chonburi FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rayong FC and Chonburi FC tend to score early?
Rayong FC have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Chonburi FC in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.