Ratchaburi 1-1 Port FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ratchaburi at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ratchaburi vs Port FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Port FC travel to Dragon Solar Park to take on Ratchaburi. The game is scheduled for Sunday 6 November 2022, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ratchaburi stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L D W D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Ratchaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ratchaburi at Dragon Solar Park this season: 5W 5D 0L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Port FC — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Port FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Port FC's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Ratchaburi at 1.90 PPG versus Port FC's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Ratchaburi register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Port FC in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Ratchaburi, 1 for Port FC and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 9 Apr 2022, ended 3–2 with Ratchaburi winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Ratchaburi in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 45% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Port FC in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ratchaburi 46% versus Port FC 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ratchaburi 32% | Port FC 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ratchaburi 1.20 xG and Port FC 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ratchaburi attack 0.909 / defence 0.752 | Port FC attack 1.110 / defence 1.021. League average goals — home 1.288 / away 1.194. Ratchaburi's defence rating of 0.752 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 41 Ratchaburi games / 41 Port FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ratchaburi 40% | Draw 31% | Port FC 30%. Fair-value odds: Ratchaburi 2.50 | Draw 3.23 | Port FC 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ratchaburi at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ratchaburi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.19 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Ratchaburi 60% | Port FC 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ratchaburi vs Port FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Dragon Solar Park • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Nov 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ratchaburi 40% | Draw 31% | Port FC 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Ratchaburi 1.20 / Port FC 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Ratchaburi attack 0.909 / def 0.752 | Port FC attack 1.110 / def 1.021 | league avg home 1.288 / away 1.194 • Poisson stance: Ratchaburi (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Ratchaburi xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Port FC xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ratchaburi vs Port FC kick off?
Ratchaburi vs Port FC kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 6 November 2022 at Dragon Solar Park.
What was the final score in Ratchaburi vs Port FC?
Ratchaburi 1 - 1 Port FC.
Where is Ratchaburi vs Port FC being played?
The match is being played at Dragon Solar Park.
What competition is Ratchaburi vs Port FC part of?
Ratchaburi vs Port FC is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ratchaburi vs Port FC?
Our statistical model gives Ratchaburi a 40% chance of winning, Port FC a 30% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Ratchaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ratchaburi vs Port FC?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Ratchaburi and Port FC will score (BTTS).
Will Ratchaburi vs Port FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Port FC?
Record (2 meetings): Ratchaburi 1W | Draws 0 | Port FC 1W.
What form are Ratchaburi and Port FC in?
Ratchaburi (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.50 | L5 L-D-W-D-D. Port FC (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Ratchaburi's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Port FC's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. The same calculation in reverse, Port FC's attack versus Ratchaburi's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 1-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ratchaburi Win
40%
2.52
31%
3.25
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Ratchaburi xG
Total xG
2.19
1.00
Port FC xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
30%
3.30
Win to Nil
15%
6.84
9%
11.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 11.1 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.3 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ratchaburi vs Port FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Ratchaburi and Port FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Ratchaburi and 1.00 for Port FC, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Ratchaburi vs Port FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ratchaburi's recent record stands at 15W 13D 13L from 41 games, a 1.41 PPG return, with L-D-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for Ratchaburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Port FC, meanwhile, have gone 15W 12D 14L across 41 games — 1.39 PPG, with D-D-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Port FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ratchaburi on 1.41 PPG, Port FC on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Ratchaburi have managed 9W 7D 4L from 20 games — 1.70 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Port FC's away record stands at 4W 6D 10L across 20 trips, a 0.90 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.39 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Port FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ratchaburi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ratchaburi are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Port FC are on 1.49 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Defensively: Port FC in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ratchaburi
Blended
Port FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ratchaburi and Port FC in coming into this match?
Ratchaburi have gone 15W 13D 13L in their last 41 games (1.41 PPG), while Port FC have gone 15W 12D 14L in their last 41 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ratchaburi at home or Port FC away?
Ratchaburi's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ratchaburi at home: 1.70 PPG; Port FC away: 0.90 PPG.
Have Ratchaburi or Port FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ratchaburi have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Port FC in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ratchaburi and Port FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Dec 2023, when Port FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ratchaburi's record when hosting Port FC specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Ratchaburi
4
Draws
4
Port FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Port FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Ratchaburi have won 2, Port FC have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Ratchaburi and Port FC last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Port FC 2-1 Ratchaburi.
Who has won more matches between Ratchaburi and Port FC?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ratchaburi see a goal before the break in 45% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ratchaburi 60%, Port FC 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Ratchaburi) and 65% (Port FC).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ratchaburi home games / Port FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ratchaburi play Port FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Ratchaburi's games and 65% of Port FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ratchaburi vs Port FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Ratchaburi's recent games and 65% of Port FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ratchaburi and Port FC tend to score early?
Ratchaburi have had a goal before half-time in 45% of their recent matches, Port FC in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ratchaburi and Port FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ratchaburi and Port FC finished level at 1-1 at Dragon Solar Park, Regular Season - 12, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ratchaburi 1.20 xG and Port FC 1.00 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ratchaburi attack 0.91 / defence 0.75 against Port FC attack 1.11 / defence 1.02, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ratchaburi 40% | Draw 31% | Port FC 30%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ratchaburi 32%, Port FC 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ratchaburi's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Port FC's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ratchaburi 1.41 PPG, Port FC 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.