Ratchaburi 4-0 Nakhon Ratchasima FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ratchaburi at 51%, yet in-form Nakhon Ratchasima FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Ratchaburi vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Nakhon Ratchasima FC travel to Dragon Solar Park to take on Ratchaburi. The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 September 2024, 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Ratchaburi have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Ratchaburi have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Dragon Solar Park, Ratchaburi have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nakhon Ratchasima FC stand at 2W 4D 0L from 6 Thai League 1 matches — 1.67 PPG. Last five: W D D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.33 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Nakhon Ratchasima FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC away from home this season: 1W 2D 0L from 3 away games — 1.67 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Nakhon Ratchasima FC are 0.77 PPG ahead (1.67 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Ratchaburi, 1 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Apr 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Ratchaburi trading profile (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC trading profile (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ratchaburi 67% and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ratchaburi 50% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ratchaburi 1.91 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ratchaburi attack 1.161 / defence 1.108 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.879 / defence 0.965. League average goals — home 1.708 / away 1.224. Data: 36 Ratchaburi games / 6 Nakhon Ratchasima FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ratchaburi 51% | Draw 28% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 21%. Fair-value odds: Ratchaburi 1.96 | Draw 3.57 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 4.76. Ratchaburi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.91 / 1.19) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ratchaburi at 51% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Nakhon Ratchasima FC (1.67 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ratchaburi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.11 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ratchaburi 80% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 100% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ratchaburi vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Dragon Solar Park • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Sep 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ratchaburi 51% | Draw 28% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Ratchaburi 1.91 / Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Ratchaburi attack 1.161 / def 1.108 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.879 / def 0.965 | league avg home 1.708 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: Ratchaburi (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Ratchaburi xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
62%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ratchaburi vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC kick off?
Ratchaburi vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 21 September 2024 at Dragon Solar Park.
What was the final score in Ratchaburi vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Ratchaburi 4 - 0 Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
Where is Ratchaburi vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC being played?
The match is being played at Dragon Solar Park.
What competition is Ratchaburi vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC part of?
Ratchaburi vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ratchaburi vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our statistical model gives Ratchaburi a 51% chance of winning, Nakhon Ratchasima FC a 21% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Ratchaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ratchaburi vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Ratchaburi and Nakhon Ratchasima FC will score (BTTS).
Will Ratchaburi vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Record (4 meetings): Ratchaburi 1W | Draws 2 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1W.
What form are Ratchaburi and Nakhon Ratchasima FC in?
Ratchaburi (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (all comps): 2W-4D-0L in 6 | 1.67 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Ratchaburi's attack rating (1.16) and Nakhon Ratchasima FC's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.91 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Nakhon Ratchasima FC's attack versus Ratchaburi's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ratchaburi Win
51%
1.96
28%
3.53
21%
4.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Ratchaburi xG
Total xG
3.11
1.19
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
4.87
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
30%
3.30
15%
6.78
Win to Nil
16%
6.45
3%
33.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 5.3 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 10.2 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 6.2 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ratchaburi vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Ratchaburi and Nakhon Ratchasima FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Ratchaburi and 1.19 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Ratchaburi vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ratchaburi's recent record stands at 1W 2D 3L from 6 games, a 0.83 PPG return, with D-W-L-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Ratchaburi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC, meanwhile, have gone 2W 4D 0L across 6 games — 1.67 PPG, with W-D-D-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Nakhon Ratchasima FC by 0.84 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ratchaburi heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Ratchaburi have managed 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.83 PPG overall — Ratchaburi are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's away record stands at 1W 2D 0L across 3 trips, a 1.67 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Ratchaburi are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Nakhon Ratchasima FC are on 1.33 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ratchaburi have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Nakhon Ratchasima FC in 100%.
Last 6 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ratchaburi
Early Season
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ratchaburi and Nakhon Ratchasima FC in coming into this match?
Ratchaburi have gone 1W 2D 3L in their last 6 games (0.83 PPG), while Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 2W 4D 0L in their last 6 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ratchaburi at home or Nakhon Ratchasima FC away?
Ratchaburi's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ratchaburi at home: 1.67 PPG; Nakhon Ratchasima FC away: 1.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ratchaburi and Nakhon Ratchasima FC runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ratchaburi have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Sep 2024, when Ratchaburi won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ratchaburi's record when hosting Nakhon Ratchasima FC specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Ratchaburi
3
Draws
1
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Ratchaburi have won 4, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ratchaburi and Nakhon Ratchasima FC last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Ratchaburi 1-0 Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
Who has won more matches between Ratchaburi and Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Ratchaburi have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ratchaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Ratchaburi at 100%, Nakhon Ratchasima FC at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Ratchaburi) and 33% (Nakhon Ratchasima FC).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ratchaburi home games / Nakhon Ratchasima FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ratchaburi play Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Ratchaburi's games and 100% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ratchaburi vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Ratchaburi's recent games and 33% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ratchaburi and Nakhon Ratchasima FC tend to score early?
Ratchaburi have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Nakhon Ratchasima FC in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Ratchaburi run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ratchaburi beat Nakhon Ratchasima FC 4-0 at Dragon Solar Park, Regular Season - 7, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ratchaburi 1.91 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.19 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Ratchaburi beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Nakhon Ratchasima FC landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ratchaburi attack 1.16 / defence 1.11 against Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.88 / defence 0.96, drawn from 36/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ratchaburi 51% | Draw 28% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 21%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ratchaburi 50%, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 83%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ratchaburi's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Nakhon Ratchasima FC arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.83. Form was overturned, with Ratchaburi winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.