Ratchaburi 1-0 Chonburi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ratchaburi at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ratchaburi vs Chonburi FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Dragon Solar Park plays host to Ratchaburi versus Chonburi FC in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Sunday 11 January 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Ratchaburi's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Ratchaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ratchaburi at Dragon Solar Park this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Chonburi FC have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W L L W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Chonburi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chonburi FC's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 3L across 8 road games this term (1.12 PPG). Away from home they average 1.12 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Ratchaburi, 1.30 for Chonburi FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: Ratchaburi 3W, Chonburi FC 2W, 2D.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2025, ended 1–0 with Ratchaburi winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Ratchaburi half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Chonburi FC half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ratchaburi 40% versus Chonburi FC 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ratchaburi 40% | Chonburi FC 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ratchaburi 1.55 xG and Chonburi FC 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ratchaburi attack 0.924 / defence 0.844 | Chonburi FC attack 0.904 / defence 1.103. League average goals — home 1.526 / away 1.185. Data: 45 Ratchaburi games / 15 Chonburi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ratchaburi 51% | Draw 29% | Chonburi FC 20%. Fair-value odds: Ratchaburi 1.96 | Draw 3.45 | Chonburi FC 5.00. Ratchaburi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ratchaburi are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ratchaburi if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Ratchaburi 50% | Chonburi FC 62%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ratchaburi vs Chonburi FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Dragon Solar Park • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Jan 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ratchaburi 51% | Draw 29% | Chonburi FC 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG Ratchaburi 1.55 / Chonburi FC 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Ratchaburi attack 0.924 / def 0.844 | Chonburi FC attack 0.904 / def 1.103 | league avg home 1.526 / away 1.185 • Poisson stance: Ratchaburi (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Ratchaburi xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Chonburi FC xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ratchaburi vs Chonburi FC kick off?
Ratchaburi vs Chonburi FC kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 11 January 2026 at Dragon Solar Park.
What was the final score in Ratchaburi vs Chonburi FC?
Ratchaburi 1 - 0 Chonburi FC.
Where is Ratchaburi vs Chonburi FC being played?
The match is being played at Dragon Solar Park.
What competition is Ratchaburi vs Chonburi FC part of?
Ratchaburi vs Chonburi FC is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ratchaburi vs Chonburi FC?
Our statistical model gives Ratchaburi a 51% chance of winning, Chonburi FC a 20% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Ratchaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ratchaburi vs Chonburi FC?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Ratchaburi and Chonburi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Ratchaburi vs Chonburi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Chonburi FC?
Record (7 meetings): Ratchaburi 3W | Draws 2 | Chonburi FC 2W.
What form are Ratchaburi and Chonburi FC in?
Ratchaburi (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. Chonburi FC (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Ratchaburi's attack at 0.92x the league average against Chonburi FC's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Chonburi FC's attack (0.90x) against Ratchaburi's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 45/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 2-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ratchaburi Win
51%
1.97
29%
3.40
20%
5.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Ratchaburi xG
Total xG
2.46
0.90
Chonburi FC xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
5.01
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
41%
2.47
21%
4.74
Win to Nil
21%
4.87
4%
23.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.3 | 12.0 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.3 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ratchaburi vs Chonburi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Ratchaburi and Chonburi FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Ratchaburi and 0.90 for Chonburi FC, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Ratchaburi vs Chonburi FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 15 outings, Ratchaburi have picked up 1.93 PPG on a 9W 2D 4L record — D-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Ratchaburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chonburi FC's form line: 3W 6D 6L from 15 games, 1.00 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-D. The sample for Chonburi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Ratchaburi are the form team by 0.93 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Chonburi FC.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Ratchaburi have posted 1.57 PPG from 7 outings (3W 2D 2L).
On the road, Chonburi FC have gone 2W 2D 3L from 7 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ratchaburi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ratchaburi are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; Chonburi FC are on 1.13 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chonburi FC in 67%.
Defensively: Ratchaburi have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ratchaburi
Blended
Chonburi FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ratchaburi and Chonburi FC in coming into this match?
Ratchaburi have gone 9W 2D 4L in their last 15 games (1.93 PPG), while Chonburi FC have gone 3W 6D 6L in their last 15 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ratchaburi at home or Chonburi FC away?
Ratchaburi's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ratchaburi at home: 1.57 PPG; Chonburi FC away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Ratchaburi or Chonburi FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ratchaburi have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Chonburi FC in 7%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 11 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Ratchaburi go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Chonburi FC won 3-0 on 28 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ratchaburi have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Chonburi FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Ratchaburi
2
Draws
2
Chonburi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Chonburi FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Ratchaburi have won 4, Chonburi FC have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ratchaburi and Chonburi FC last play each other?
They last met on 11 January 2026, when Ratchaburi 1-0 Chonburi FC.
Who has won more matches between Ratchaburi and Chonburi FC?
Ratchaburi have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ratchaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Chonburi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ratchaburi 29%, Chonburi FC 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Ratchaburi) and 71% (Chonburi FC).
On the defensive side: Ratchaburi keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Ratchaburi have failed to score in 29% of games; Chonburi FC in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ratchaburi home games / Chonburi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ratchaburi play Chonburi FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Ratchaburi's recent matches and 71% of Chonburi FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ratchaburi vs Chonburi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Ratchaburi's recent games and 71% of Chonburi FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ratchaburi and Chonburi FC tend to score early?
Ratchaburi have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Chonburi FC in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ratchaburi edge out Chonburi FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ratchaburi beat Chonburi FC 1-0 at Dragon Solar Park, Regular Season - 16, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ratchaburi 1.55 xG and Chonburi FC 0.90 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Chonburi FC landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ratchaburi attack 0.92 / defence 0.84 against Chonburi FC attack 0.90 / defence 1.10, drawn from 45/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ratchaburi 51% | Draw 29% | Chonburi FC 20%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ratchaburi 40%, Chonburi FC 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ratchaburi's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Chonburi FC's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Ratchaburi arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Chonburi FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.