Ratchaburi 1-4 Buriram United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ratchaburi at 41%, yet in-form Buriram United provide a compelling counter-argument — this Ratchaburi vs Buriram United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ratchaburi and Buriram United meet at Dragon Solar Park in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 20 April 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Ratchaburi (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Ratchaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ratchaburi's home record at Dragon Solar Park: 7W 0D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Buriram United's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 8W 2D 0L from 10 games (2.60 PPG). Last five: W D W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Buriram United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Buriram United's away record: 5W 4D 1L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Buriram United are 0.70 PPG clear of Ratchaburi in recent Thai League 1 fixtures (2.60 vs 1.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Across the last 5 meetings, Buriram United have the stronger historical record — 3 wins to Ratchaburi's 0, with 2 draws in the mix.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.6 per game from 5 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Nov 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Buriram United have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Ratchaburi — key trading statistics (54 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games).
Buriram United — key trading statistics (54 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ratchaburi 46% versus Buriram United 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ratchaburi 32% | Buriram United 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ratchaburi 1.39 xG and Buriram United 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ratchaburi attack 0.951 / defence 0.858 | Buriram United attack 1.186 / defence 0.847. League average goals — home 1.726 / away 1.132. Data: 54 Ratchaburi games / 54 Buriram United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ratchaburi 41% | Draw 29% | Buriram United 30%. Fair-value odds: Ratchaburi 2.44 | Draw 3.45 | Buriram United 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Ratchaburi as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Buriram United (2.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ratchaburi if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.6 goals per meeting — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ratchaburi 50% | Buriram United 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ratchaburi vs Buriram United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Dragon Solar Park • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Apr 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ratchaburi 41% | Draw 29% | Buriram United 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG Ratchaburi 1.39 / Buriram United 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Ratchaburi attack 0.951 / def 0.858 | Buriram United attack 1.186 / def 0.847 | league avg home 1.726 / away 1.132 • Poisson stance: Ratchaburi (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Ratchaburi xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Buriram United xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ratchaburi vs Buriram United kick off?
Ratchaburi vs Buriram United kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 20 April 2024 at Dragon Solar Park.
What was the final score in Ratchaburi vs Buriram United?
Ratchaburi 1 - 4 Buriram United.
Where is Ratchaburi vs Buriram United being played?
The match is being played at Dragon Solar Park.
What competition is Ratchaburi vs Buriram United part of?
Ratchaburi vs Buriram United is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ratchaburi vs Buriram United?
Our statistical model gives Ratchaburi a 41% chance of winning, Buriram United a 30% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Ratchaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ratchaburi vs Buriram United?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Ratchaburi and Buriram United will score (BTTS).
Will Ratchaburi vs Buriram United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Buriram United?
Record (5 meetings): Ratchaburi 0W | Draws 2 | Buriram United 3W.
What form are Ratchaburi and Buriram United in?
Ratchaburi (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-L-L-W. Buriram United (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Ratchaburi's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Buriram United's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. Flip it around — Buriram United's attack (1.19x) against Ratchaburi's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ratchaburi Win
41%
2.43
29%
3.47
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Ratchaburi xG
Total xG
2.54
1.15
Buriram United xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
13%
7.69
7%
13.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 9.1 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.6 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.8 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ratchaburi vs Buriram United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Ratchaburi and Buriram United expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Ratchaburi and 1.15 for Buriram United, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Ratchaburi vs Buriram United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ratchaburi come into this having played 54 games, going 20W 16D 18L for 1.41 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-W. The sample for Ratchaburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Buriram United sit at 2.35 PPG from 54 outings (38W 13D 3L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Buriram United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Buriram United carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.94 PPG clear of Ratchaburi — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Ratchaburi's home form reads 12W 8D 5L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.76 PPG return.
Away from home, Buriram United have taken 2.12 points per game from 25 outings (15W 8D 2L).
Attack vs Defence
Ratchaburi are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Buriram United are on 2.31 scored and 0.91 conceded. Buriram United's attacking output running into Ratchaburi's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Buriram United in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ratchaburi
Blended
Buriram United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ratchaburi and Buriram United in coming into this match?
Ratchaburi have gone 20W 16D 18L in their last 54 games (1.41 PPG), while Buriram United have gone 38W 13D 3L in their last 54 (2.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ratchaburi at home or Buriram United away?
Buriram United's away record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ratchaburi at home: 1.76 PPG; Buriram United away: 2.12 PPG.
Have Ratchaburi or Buriram United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ratchaburi have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Buriram United in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Buriram United won 6-0 on 8 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ratchaburi have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Buriram United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Ratchaburi
3
Draws
6
Buriram United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Buriram United?
From 10 meetings on record, Ratchaburi have won 1, Buriram United have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ratchaburi and Buriram United last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Ratchaburi 2-2 Buriram United.
Who has won more matches between Ratchaburi and Buriram United?
Buriram United have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ratchaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Buriram United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ratchaburi 56%, Buriram United 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Ratchaburi) and 52% (Buriram United).
On the defensive side: Ratchaburi keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Buriram United in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ratchaburi home games / Buriram United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ratchaburi play Buriram United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Ratchaburi's games and 60% of Buriram United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ratchaburi vs Buriram United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Ratchaburi's recent games and 52% of Buriram United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ratchaburi and Buriram United tend to score early?
Ratchaburi have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Buriram United in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Buriram United run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Ratchaburi.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Buriram United beat Ratchaburi 1-4 at Dragon Solar Park, Regular Season - 25, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ratchaburi 1.39 xG and Buriram United 1.15 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Buriram United outscored their 1.15 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ratchaburi attack 0.95 / defence 0.86 against Buriram United attack 1.19 / defence 0.85, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ratchaburi 41% | Draw 29% | Buriram United 30%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Buriram United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ratchaburi 32%, Buriram United 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ratchaburi's trading profile (54 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Buriram United's trading profile (54 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.35 PPG against 1.41. That form edge translated into the three points. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Buriram United (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.88 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.