Rasi Salai United 1-1 Lamphun Warrior – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Lamphun Warrior at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rasi Salai United vs Lamphun Warrior encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Sisaket Provincial Stadium plays host to Rasi Salai United versus Lamphun Warrior in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Saturday 19 September 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Form
Rasi Salai United (all games): 0W 0D 2L across 2 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.50 conceded. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Rasi Salai United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lamphun Warrior have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: D D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Lamphun Warrior have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lamphun Warrior away from home this season: 1W 6D 3L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Lamphun Warrior are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (0.80 vs 0.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using overall form) — Rasi Salai United have seen both teams score in 100% of their games, Lamphun Warrior in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rasi Salai United 1.18 xG and Lamphun Warrior 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rasi Salai United attack 0.850 / defence 1.214 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.949 / defence 1.031. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.174. Data: 2 Rasi Salai United games / 32 Lamphun Warrior games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Rasi Salai United 33% | Draw 27% | Lamphun Warrior 41%. Fair-value odds: Rasi Salai United 3.03 | Draw 3.70 | Lamphun Warrior 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lamphun Warrior are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lamphun Warrior if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.53 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rasi Salai United vs Lamphun Warrior | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Sisaket Provincial Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Sep 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rasi Salai United 33% | Draw 27% | Lamphun Warrior 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Rasi Salai United 1.18 / Lamphun Warrior 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Rasi Salai United attack 0.850 / def 1.214 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.949 / def 1.031 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.174 • Poisson stance: Lamphun Warrior (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Rasi Salai United xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Lamphun Warrior xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rasi Salai United vs Lamphun Warrior kick off?
Rasi Salai United vs Lamphun Warrior kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 19 September 2026 at Sisaket Provincial Stadium.
What was the final score in Rasi Salai United vs Lamphun Warrior?
Rasi Salai United 1 - 1 Lamphun Warrior.
Where is Rasi Salai United vs Lamphun Warrior being played?
The match is being played at Sisaket Provincial Stadium.
What competition is Rasi Salai United vs Lamphun Warrior part of?
Rasi Salai United vs Lamphun Warrior is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Rasi Salai United vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our statistical model gives Rasi Salai United a 33% chance of winning, Lamphun Warrior a 41% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Lamphun Warrior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rasi Salai United vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Rasi Salai United and Lamphun Warrior will score (BTTS).
Will Rasi Salai United vs Lamphun Warrior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rasi Salai United and Lamphun Warrior?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rasi Salai United and Lamphun Warrior in?
Rasi Salai United (all comps): 0W-0D-2L in 2 | 0.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L. Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Rasi Salai United's attack rating (0.85) and Lamphun Warrior's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Lamphun Warrior's attack (0.95x) against Rasi Salai United's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
The sample (2/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lamphun Warrior Win
33%
3.07
27%
3.75
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Rasi Salai United xG
Total xG
2.53
1.35
Lamphun Warrior xG
3.07
33%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
26%
3.87
31%
3.25
Win to Nil
8%
11.89
13%
7.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 10.8 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.7 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.5 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rasi Salai United vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Rasi Salai United and Lamphun Warrior expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Rasi Salai United and 1.35 for Lamphun Warrior, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Rasi Salai United vs Lamphun Warrior?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 2 outings, Rasi Salai United have picked up 0.00 PPG on a 0W 0D 2L record — L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Rasi Salai United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lamphun Warrior's form line: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games, 0.00 PPG, last five L-L. It's still early in the season for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.00 PPG for Rasi Salai United against 0.00 for Lamphun Warrior. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rasi Salai United are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game recently; Lamphun Warrior are on 1.00 scored and 3.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rasi Salai United have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Lamphun Warrior in 100%.
Last 2 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rasi Salai United
Early Season
Lamphun Warrior
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rasi Salai United and Lamphun Warrior in coming into this match?
Rasi Salai United have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 games (0.00 PPG), while Lamphun Warrior have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 1 times since September 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. The two were last together as recently as 19 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Rasi Salai United
1
Draws
0
Lamphun Warrior
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rasi Salai United and Lamphun Warrior?
From 1 meetings on record, Rasi Salai United have won 0, Lamphun Warrior have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Rasi Salai United and Lamphun Warrior last play each other?
They last met on 19 September 2026, when Rasi Salai United 1-1 Lamphun Warrior.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rasi Salai United home games / Lamphun Warrior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rasi Salai United play Lamphun Warrior?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Rasi Salai United's games and 100% of Lamphun Warrior's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rasi Salai United vs Lamphun Warrior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Rasi Salai United's matches and 100% of Lamphun Warrior's.
Do Rasi Salai United and Lamphun Warrior tend to score early?
Rasi Salai United have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Lamphun Warrior in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rasi Salai United and Lamphun Warrior share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rasi Salai United and Lamphun Warrior finished level at 1-1 at Sisaket Provincial Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rasi Salai United 1.18 xG and Lamphun Warrior 1.35 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rasi Salai United attack 0.85 / defence 1.21 against Lamphun Warrior attack 0.95 / defence 1.03, drawn from 2/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Rasi Salai United 33% | Draw 27% | Lamphun Warrior 41%, with Lamphun Warrior to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rasi Salai United 100%, Lamphun Warrior 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rasi Salai United 0.00 PPG, Lamphun Warrior 0.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Rasi Salai United conceded 1 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line. Lamphun Warrior conceded 1 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.