Prachuap 2-0 Uthai Thani – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Prachuap at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Prachuap vs Uthai Thani encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 29 as Prachuap welcome Uthai Thani to Sam Ao Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 3 May 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Prachuap have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: D D L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Prachuap's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at Sam Ao Stadium this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Uthai Thani stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Uthai Thani have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Prachuap have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Prachuap have won 1, Uthai Thani 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.6 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 13 Dec 2025, ended 0–4 with Uthai Thani winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Prachuap trading profile (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Uthai Thani trading profile (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Prachuap 52% versus Uthai Thani 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Prachuap 47% | Uthai Thani 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Prachuap 1.58 xG and Uthai Thani 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Prachuap attack 1.008 / defence 0.847 | Uthai Thani attack 0.814 / defence 1.057. League average goals — home 1.486 / away 1.050. Data: 58 Prachuap games / 58 Uthai Thani games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Prachuap 56% | Draw 29% | Uthai Thani 15%. Fair-value odds: Prachuap 1.79 | Draw 3.45 | Uthai Thani 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Prachuap (56%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Uthai Thani lead the H2H ledger, but Prachuap carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Prachuap as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 29% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.31 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates are neutral: Prachuap 50% | Uthai Thani 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Prachuap vs Uthai Thani | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Sam Ao Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 3 May 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Prachuap 56% | Draw 29% | Uthai Thani 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 43% | xG Prachuap 1.58 / Uthai Thani 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Prachuap attack 1.008 / def 0.847 | Uthai Thani attack 0.814 / def 1.057 | league avg home 1.486 / away 1.050 • Poisson stance: Prachuap (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Prachuap xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Uthai Thani xG
43%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Prachuap vs Uthai Thani kick off?
Prachuap vs Uthai Thani kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 3 May 2026 at Sam Ao Stadium.
What was the final score in Prachuap vs Uthai Thani?
Prachuap 2 - 0 Uthai Thani.
Where is Prachuap vs Uthai Thani being played?
The match is being played at Sam Ao Stadium.
What competition is Prachuap vs Uthai Thani part of?
Prachuap vs Uthai Thani is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Prachuap vs Uthai Thani?
Our statistical model gives Prachuap a 56% chance of winning, Uthai Thani a 15% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Prachuap the favourite.
Will both teams score in Prachuap vs Uthai Thani?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Prachuap and Uthai Thani will score (BTTS).
Will Prachuap vs Uthai Thani have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Uthai Thani?
Record (5 meetings): Prachuap 1W | Draws 1 | Uthai Thani 3W.
What form are Prachuap and Uthai Thani in?
Prachuap (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-L-W-W. Uthai Thani (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Prachuap's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Uthai Thani's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.58. The same calculation in reverse, Uthai Thani's attack versus Prachuap's defence, projects 0.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.9%), 2-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Prachuap Win
56%
1.79
29%
3.42
15%
6.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.5%
Home win
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Prachuap xG
Total xG
2.31
0.72
Uthai Thani xG
1.79
56%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
6.70
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
48%
2.06
21%
4.86
Win to Nil
27%
3.69
3%
32.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.8 | 11.4 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.5 | 9.0 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.6 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Prachuap vs Uthai Thani?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Prachuap and Uthai Thani expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Prachuap and 0.72 for Uthai Thani, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Prachuap vs Uthai Thani?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Prachuap come into this having played 58 games, going 22W 20D 16L for 1.48 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-W-W.
On the other side, Uthai Thani sit at 1.17 PPG from 58 outings (16W 20D 22L), a run that reads D-D-W-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Prachuap on 1.48 PPG, Uthai Thani on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Prachuap's home form reads 15W 10D 3L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.96 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.48 PPG overall — Prachuap are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Uthai Thani have taken 0.82 points per game from 28 outings (5W 8D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Prachuap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Prachuap are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Uthai Thani are on 1.31 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Prachuap
Current Season
Uthai Thani
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Prachuap and Uthai Thani in coming into this match?
Prachuap have gone 22W 20D 16L in their last 58 games (1.48 PPG), while Uthai Thani have gone 16W 20D 22L in their last 58 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Prachuap at home or Uthai Thani away?
Prachuap's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Prachuap at home: 1.96 PPG; Uthai Thani away: 0.82 PPG.
Have Prachuap or Uthai Thani been keeping clean sheets recently?
Prachuap have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Uthai Thani in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Prachuap and Uthai Thani runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Dec 2025, when Uthai Thani won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Prachuap's record when hosting Uthai Thani specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Prachuap
1
Draws
3
Uthai Thani
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Uthai Thani?
From 6 meetings on record, Prachuap have won 2, Uthai Thani have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Prachuap and Uthai Thani last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Prachuap 2-0 Uthai Thani.
Who has won more matches between Prachuap and Uthai Thani?
Uthai Thani have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Uthai Thani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Prachuap 46%, Uthai Thani 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Prachuap) and 46% (Uthai Thani).
On the defensive side: Prachuap keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Uthai Thani in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Prachuap home games / Uthai Thani away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Prachuap play Uthai Thani?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Prachuap's recent matches and 57% of Uthai Thani's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Prachuap vs Uthai Thani usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Prachuap's recent games and 46% of Uthai Thani's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Prachuap and Uthai Thani tend to score early?
Prachuap have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Uthai Thani in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prachuap cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Uthai Thani.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Prachuap beat Uthai Thani 2-0 at Sam Ao Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Prachuap 1.58 xG and Uthai Thani 0.72 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Prachuap attack 1.01 / defence 0.85 against Uthai Thani attack 0.81 / defence 1.06, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Prachuap 56% | Draw 29% | Uthai Thani 15%, with Prachuap to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Prachuap 47%, Uthai Thani 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Prachuap's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Uthai Thani's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Prachuap 1.48 PPG, Uthai Thani 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Prachuap win broke the near-deadlock. Prachuap (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Uthai Thani (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.