Prachuap 1-2 Uthai Thani – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Prachuap at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Prachuap vs Uthai Thani fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 8 as Prachuap welcome Uthai Thani to Sam Ao Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 22 October 2023 at 11:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Prachuap have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D L L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Prachuap have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Prachuap's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Sam Ao Stadium this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Prachuap are significantly better at Sam Ao Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Uthai Thani stand at 2W 0D 5L from 7 Thai League 1 matches — 0.86 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 0.86 per game is modest, conceding 2.29 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.29 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Uthai Thani have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Uthai Thani have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Prachuap at 1.20 PPG versus Uthai Thani's 0.86. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
Prachuap trading profile (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games; Over 3.5 in 57%.
Uthai Thani trading profile (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Prachuap 71% versus Uthai Thani 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Prachuap 57% | Uthai Thani 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Prachuap 1.76 xG and Uthai Thani 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Prachuap attack 0.924 / defence 1.124 | Uthai Thani attack 0.872 / defence 1.091. League average goals — home 1.742 / away 1.229. Data: 37 Prachuap games / 7 Uthai Thani games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Prachuap 50% | Draw 25% | Uthai Thani 25%. Fair-value odds: Prachuap 2.00 | Draw 4.00 | Uthai Thani 4.00. Prachuap hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Prachuap as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Prachuap offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.96 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Prachuap 60% | Uthai Thani 33%.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Prachuap vs Uthai Thani | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Sam Ao Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Oct 2023, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Prachuap 50% | Draw 25% | Uthai Thani 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG Prachuap 1.76 / Uthai Thani 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Prachuap attack 0.924 / def 1.124 | Uthai Thani attack 0.872 / def 1.091 | league avg home 1.742 / away 1.229 • Poisson stance: Prachuap (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Prachuap xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Uthai Thani xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Prachuap vs Uthai Thani kick off?
Prachuap vs Uthai Thani kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 22 October 2023 at Sam Ao Stadium.
What was the final score in Prachuap vs Uthai Thani?
Prachuap 1 - 2 Uthai Thani.
Where is Prachuap vs Uthai Thani being played?
The match is being played at Sam Ao Stadium.
What competition is Prachuap vs Uthai Thani part of?
Prachuap vs Uthai Thani is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Prachuap vs Uthai Thani?
Our statistical model gives Prachuap a 50% chance of winning, Uthai Thani a 25% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Prachuap the favourite.
Will both teams score in Prachuap vs Uthai Thani?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Prachuap and Uthai Thani will score (BTTS).
Will Prachuap vs Uthai Thani have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Uthai Thani?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Prachuap and Uthai Thani in?
Prachuap (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-L-D. Uthai Thani (all comps): 2W-0D-5L in 7 | 0.86 PPG | GF 0.86 / GA 2.29 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Prachuap's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Uthai Thani's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.76. The same calculation in reverse, Uthai Thani's attack versus Prachuap's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Prachuap Win
50%
2.02
25%
4.00
25%
3.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Prachuap xG
Total xG
2.96
1.21
Uthai Thani xG
2.02
50%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
3.93
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
17%
5.80
Win to Nil
15%
6.73
4%
22.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.2 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 10.9 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.6 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.6 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Prachuap vs Uthai Thani?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Prachuap and Uthai Thani expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Prachuap and 1.21 for Uthai Thani, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Prachuap vs Uthai Thani?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Prachuap come into this having played 7 games, going 1W 3D 3L for 0.86 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Prachuap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Uthai Thani sit at 0.86 PPG from 7 outings (2W 0D 5L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Uthai Thani, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Prachuap on 0.86 PPG, Uthai Thani on 0.86. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Prachuap's home form reads 1W 1D 1L across 3 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.86 PPG overall — Prachuap are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Uthai Thani have taken 1.00 points per game from 3 outings (1W 0D 2L).
The Goals Picture
Prachuap are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; Uthai Thani are on 0.86 scored and 2.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Prachuap have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 7 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Prachuap
Early Season
Uthai Thani
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Prachuap and Uthai Thani in coming into this match?
Prachuap have gone 1W 3D 3L in their last 7 games (0.86 PPG), while Uthai Thani have gone 2W 0D 5L in their last 7 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Prachuap at home or Uthai Thani away?
Prachuap's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Prachuap at home: 1.33 PPG; Uthai Thani away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Prachuap and Uthai Thani runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Dec 2025, when Uthai Thani won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Prachuap's record when hosting Uthai Thani specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Prachuap
1
Draws
3
Uthai Thani
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Uthai Thani?
From 6 meetings on record, Prachuap have won 2, Uthai Thani have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Prachuap and Uthai Thani last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Prachuap 2-0 Uthai Thani.
Who has won more matches between Prachuap and Uthai Thani?
Uthai Thani have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Uthai Thani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Prachuap 67%, Uthai Thani 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Prachuap and 67% for Uthai Thani. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Prachuap keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Uthai Thani in 33%; Uthai Thani in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Prachuap home games / Uthai Thani away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Prachuap play Uthai Thani?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Prachuap's recent matches and 33% of Uthai Thani's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Prachuap vs Uthai Thani usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Prachuap's matches and 67% of Uthai Thani's.
Do Prachuap and Uthai Thani tend to score early?
Prachuap have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Uthai Thani in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Uthai Thani defy the odds to beat Prachuap 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Uthai Thani beat Prachuap 1-2 at Sam Ao Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Prachuap 1.76 xG and Uthai Thani 1.21 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Prachuap attack 0.92 / defence 1.12 against Uthai Thani attack 0.87 / defence 1.09, drawn from 37/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Prachuap 50% | Draw 25% | Uthai Thani 25%, with Prachuap to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Uthai Thani win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Prachuap 57%, Uthai Thani 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Prachuap's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Uthai Thani's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Prachuap 0.86 PPG, Uthai Thani 0.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Uthai Thani win broke the near-deadlock. Uthai Thani (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.