Prachuap 2-1 Trat FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Prachuap at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Prachuap vs Trat FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 23 as Prachuap welcome Trat FC to Sam Ao Stadium. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 2 April 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Prachuap have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D W L W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Prachuap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Prachuap's home record at Sam Ao Stadium: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Trat FC — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Trat FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Trat FC have posted 1W 1D 7L from 9 away outings — 0.44 PPG. Away from home they average 0.78 goals scored and 2.44 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Prachuap have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Prachuap, 1 for Trat FC and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2023, ended 0–1 with Trat FC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Prachuap trading profile (22 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Trat FC trading profile (22 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Prachuap 68% and Trat FC 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Prachuap 46% | Trat FC 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Prachuap 1.83 xG and Trat FC 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Prachuap attack 0.817 / defence 0.867 | Trat FC attack 0.759 / defence 1.248. League average goals — home 1.793 / away 1.162. Trat FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.248 — this is suppressing Prachuap's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 Prachuap games / 22 Trat FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Prachuap 61% | Draw 26% | Trat FC 13%. Fair-value odds: Prachuap 1.64 | Draw 3.85 | Trat FC 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Prachuap (61%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Prachuap are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.59 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Prachuap 70% | Trat FC 56% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Prachuap vs Trat FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Sam Ao Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 2 Apr 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Prachuap 61% | Draw 26% | Trat FC 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 47% | xG Prachuap 1.83 / Trat FC 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Prachuap attack 0.817 / def 0.867 | Trat FC attack 0.759 / def 1.248 | league avg home 1.793 / away 1.162 • Poisson stance: Prachuap (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Prachuap xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Trat FC xG
47%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Prachuap vs Trat FC kick off?
Prachuap vs Trat FC kicked off at 12:00 on Tuesday 2 April 2024 at Sam Ao Stadium.
What was the final score in Prachuap vs Trat FC?
Prachuap 2 - 1 Trat FC.
Where is Prachuap vs Trat FC being played?
The match is being played at Sam Ao Stadium.
What competition is Prachuap vs Trat FC part of?
Prachuap vs Trat FC is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Prachuap vs Trat FC?
Our statistical model gives Prachuap a 61% chance of winning, Trat FC a 13% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Prachuap the favourite.
Will both teams score in Prachuap vs Trat FC?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Prachuap and Trat FC will score (BTTS).
Will Prachuap vs Trat FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Trat FC?
Record (1 meetings): Prachuap 0W | Draws 0 | Trat FC 1W.
What form are Prachuap and Trat FC in?
Prachuap (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. Trat FC (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Prachuap's attack at 0.82x the league average against Trat FC's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 1.83 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Trat FC's attack versus Prachuap's defence, projects 0.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.3%), 1-1 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Prachuap Win
61%
1.64
26%
3.90
13%
7.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.5%
Home win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Prachuap xG
Total xG
2.59
0.76
Trat FC xG
1.64
61%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
7.48
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
47%
2.15
16%
6.22
Win to Nil
28%
3.52
2%
46.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.7 | 10.5 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.5 | 9.6 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.6 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Prachuap vs Trat FC?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Prachuap and Trat FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Prachuap and 0.76 for Trat FC, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Prachuap vs Trat FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 22 outings, Prachuap have picked up 0.91 PPG on a 4W 8D 10L record — D-W-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Prachuap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Trat FC's form line: 5W 6D 11L from 22 games, 0.95 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-W. The sample for Trat FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Prachuap on 0.91 PPG, Trat FC on 0.95. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Prachuap have posted 1.22 PPG from 9 outings (3W 2D 4L).
On the road, Trat FC have gone 1W 1D 7L from 9 away games — 0.44 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.95 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Trat FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Prachuap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Prachuap are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Trat FC are on 1.32 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Prachuap have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; Trat FC in 68%.
Last 22 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Prachuap
Blended
Trat FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Prachuap and Trat FC in coming into this match?
Prachuap have gone 4W 8D 10L in their last 22 games (0.91 PPG), while Trat FC have gone 5W 6D 11L in their last 22 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Prachuap at home or Trat FC away?
Prachuap's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Prachuap at home: 1.22 PPG; Trat FC away: 0.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Prachuap
0
Draws
1
Trat FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Trat FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Prachuap have won 1, Trat FC have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Prachuap and Trat FC last play each other?
They last met on 2 April 2024, when Prachuap 2-1 Trat FC.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Trat FC see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Prachuap 67%, Trat FC 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 44% for Prachuap and 78% for Trat FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Trat FC in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Prachuap home games / Trat FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Prachuap play Trat FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Prachuap's games and 56% of Trat FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Prachuap vs Trat FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Prachuap's matches and 78% of Trat FC's.
Do Prachuap and Trat FC tend to score early?
Prachuap have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Trat FC in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Prachuap edge out Trat FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Prachuap beat Trat FC 2-1 at Sam Ao Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Prachuap 1.83 xG and Trat FC 0.76 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Prachuap attack 0.82 / defence 0.87 against Trat FC attack 0.76 / defence 1.25, drawn from 52/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Prachuap 61% | Draw 26% | Trat FC 13%, with Prachuap to win its most likely call at 61%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Prachuap 46%, Trat FC 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Prachuap's trading profile (22 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Trat FC's trading profile (22 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Prachuap 0.91 PPG, Trat FC 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Prachuap win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.