Prachuap 1-1 Port FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Port FC at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Prachuap vs Port FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Port FC make the trip to Sam Ao Stadium to face Prachuap in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Saturday 28 January 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Prachuap have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L L D D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Prachuap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Prachuap's home record at Sam Ao Stadium: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Port FC (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Port FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Port FC have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Port FC are 0.70 PPG clear of Prachuap in recent Thai League 1 fixtures (1.60 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Prachuap register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Port FC in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Prachuap lead 1W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 26 Aug 2022, ended 2–5 with Port FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Prachuap goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Port FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Prachuap 61% versus Port FC 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Prachuap 56% | Port FC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Prachuap 1.21 xG and Port FC 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Prachuap attack 0.937 / defence 1.303 | Port FC attack 0.967 / defence 0.948. League average goals — home 1.358 / away 1.228. Data: 46 Prachuap games / 46 Port FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Prachuap 29% | Draw 26% | Port FC 45%. Fair-value odds: Prachuap 3.45 | Draw 3.85 | Port FC 2.22. Port FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Port FC as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Port FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Prachuap 70% | Port FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Prachuap vs Port FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Sam Ao Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Jan 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Prachuap 29% | Draw 26% | Port FC 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Prachuap 1.21 / Port FC 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Prachuap attack 0.937 / def 1.303 | Port FC attack 0.967 / def 0.948 | league avg home 1.358 / away 1.228 • Poisson stance: Port FC (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Prachuap xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Port FC xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Prachuap vs Port FC kick off?
Prachuap vs Port FC kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 28 January 2023 at Sam Ao Stadium.
What was the final score in Prachuap vs Port FC?
Prachuap 1 - 1 Port FC.
Where is Prachuap vs Port FC being played?
The match is being played at Sam Ao Stadium.
What competition is Prachuap vs Port FC part of?
Prachuap vs Port FC is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Prachuap vs Port FC?
Our statistical model gives Prachuap a 29% chance of winning, Port FC a 45% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Prachuap vs Port FC?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Prachuap and Port FC will score (BTTS).
Will Prachuap vs Port FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Port FC?
Record (3 meetings): Prachuap 1W | Draws 0 | Port FC 2W.
What form are Prachuap and Port FC in?
Prachuap (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-D-D-W. Port FC (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Prachuap's attack rating (0.94) and Port FC's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Port FC's attack (0.97x) against Prachuap's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.55.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
29%
3.41
26%
3.87
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Prachuap xG
Total xG
2.75
1.55
Port FC xG
3.41
29%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
21%
4.70
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
6%
16.00
13%
7.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 9.9 | 7.6 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.9 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.2 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Prachuap vs Port FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Prachuap and Port FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Prachuap and 1.55 for Port FC, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Prachuap vs Port FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 46 outings, Prachuap have picked up 1.02 PPG on a 12W 11D 23L record — L-L-D-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Prachuap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Port FC's form line: 17W 13D 16L from 46 games, 1.39 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-W. The sample for Port FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.02 PPG for Prachuap against 1.39 for Port FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Prachuap have posted 1.09 PPG from 22 outings (6W 6D 10L).
On the road, Port FC have gone 4W 7D 11L from 22 away games — 0.86 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.39 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Port FC's season.
Attack vs Defence
Prachuap are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Port FC are on 1.46 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Prachuap have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 46 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Prachuap
Blended
Port FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Prachuap and Port FC in coming into this match?
Prachuap have gone 12W 11D 23L in their last 46 games (1.02 PPG), while Port FC have gone 17W 13D 16L in their last 46 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Prachuap at home or Port FC away?
Prachuap's home record (1.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Prachuap at home: 1.09 PPG; Port FC away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Prachuap or Port FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Prachuap have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Port FC in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Port FC have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Port FC won 5-2 on 26 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Prachuap have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Port FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Prachuap
3
Draws
5
Port FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Port FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Prachuap have won 2, Port FC have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Prachuap and Port FC last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Port FC 3-0 Prachuap.
Who has won more matches between Prachuap and Port FC?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Prachuap 59%, Port FC 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Prachuap) and 59% (Port FC).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Prachuap home games / Port FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Prachuap play Port FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Prachuap's games and 64% of Port FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Prachuap vs Port FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Prachuap's recent games and 59% of Port FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Prachuap and Port FC tend to score early?
Prachuap have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Port FC in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prachuap and Port FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Sam Ao Stadium, Regular Season - 17, as Prachuap and Port FC drew 1-1 in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Prachuap 1.21 xG and Port FC 1.55 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Prachuap attack 0.94 / defence 1.30 against Port FC attack 0.97 / defence 0.95, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Prachuap 29% | Draw 26% | Port FC 45%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Prachuap 56%, Port FC 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Prachuap's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Port FC's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Prachuap 1.02 PPG, Port FC 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.