Prachuap 1-1 Police Tero – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Police Tero at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Prachuap vs Police Tero encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Police Tero make the trip to Sam Ao Stadium to face Prachuap in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Sunday 21 November 2021 at 11:00 UTC.
Form
Prachuap (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Prachuap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Prachuap have posted 0W 2D 3L at Sam Ao Stadium — 0.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Police Tero have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Police Tero, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Police Tero have gone 1W 2D 5L from 8 away fixtures this term (0.62 PPG). Away from home they average 1.12 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.62 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Police Tero arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading & In-Play
Prachuap — key trading statistics (13 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Police Tero — key trading statistics (13 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Prachuap 54% versus Police Tero 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Prachuap 54% | Police Tero 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Prachuap 1.23 xG and Police Tero 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Prachuap attack 0.771 / defence 1.343 | Police Tero attack 0.879 / defence 1.536. League average goals — home 1.037 / away 1.153. Prachuap's attack strength of 0.771 is below the league average — the 1.23 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Police Tero bring a strong defensive rating of 1.536 — this is suppressing Prachuap's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Prachuap games / 13 Police Tero games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Prachuap 34% | Draw 26% | Police Tero 40%. Fair-value odds: Prachuap 2.94 | Draw 3.85 | Police Tero 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Police Tero are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Police Tero if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.59 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Prachuap 60% | Police Tero 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Prachuap vs Police Tero | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Sam Ao Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Nov 2021, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Prachuap 34% | Draw 26% | Police Tero 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Prachuap 1.23 / Police Tero 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Prachuap attack 0.771 / def 1.343 | Police Tero attack 0.879 / def 1.536 | league avg home 1.037 / away 1.153 • Poisson stance: Police Tero (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Prachuap xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Police Tero xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Prachuap vs Police Tero kick off?
Prachuap vs Police Tero kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 21 November 2021 at Sam Ao Stadium.
What was the final score in Prachuap vs Police Tero?
Prachuap 1 - 1 Police Tero.
Where is Prachuap vs Police Tero being played?
The match is being played at Sam Ao Stadium.
What competition is Prachuap vs Police Tero part of?
Prachuap vs Police Tero is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Prachuap vs Police Tero?
Our statistical model gives Prachuap a 34% chance of winning, Police Tero a 40% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Police Tero the favourite.
Will both teams score in Prachuap vs Police Tero?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Prachuap and Police Tero will score (BTTS).
Will Prachuap vs Police Tero have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Police Tero?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Prachuap and Police Tero in?
Prachuap (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Police Tero (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Prachuap's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Police Tero's defensive record (1.54x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. Flip it around — Police Tero's attack (0.88x) against Prachuap's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 0-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Police Tero Win
34%
2.96
26%
3.79
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Prachuap xG
Total xG
2.59
1.36
Police Tero xG
2.96
34%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
26%
3.90
29%
3.42
Win to Nil
9%
11.55
12%
8.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 10.2 | 6.9 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.6 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.7 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Prachuap vs Police Tero?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Prachuap and Police Tero expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Prachuap and 1.36 for Police Tero, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Prachuap vs Police Tero?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 13 outings, Prachuap have picked up 0.69 PPG on a 2W 3D 8L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Prachuap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Police Tero's form line: 4W 4D 5L from 13 games, 1.23 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-W. The sample for Police Tero is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Police Tero are the form team by 0.54 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Prachuap.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Prachuap have posted 0.40 PPG from 5 outings (0W 2D 3L).
On the road, Police Tero have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 away games — 0.80 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.23 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Police Tero's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Police Tero come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Prachuap are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Police Tero are on 1.38 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Last 13 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Prachuap
Blended
Police Tero
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Prachuap and Police Tero in coming into this match?
Prachuap have gone 2W 3D 8L in their last 13 games (0.69 PPG), while Police Tero have gone 4W 4D 5L in their last 13 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Prachuap at home or Police Tero away?
Police Tero's away record (0.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Prachuap at home: 0.40 PPG; Police Tero away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Prachuap have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Police Tero — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Prachuap
4
Draws
1
Police Tero
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Police Tero?
From 6 meetings on record, Prachuap have won 1, Police Tero have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Prachuap and Police Tero last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2024, when Prachuap 2-0 Police Tero.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Police Tero are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Prachuap 60%, Police Tero 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Prachuap and 60% for Police Tero. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Prachuap have failed to score in 40% of games; Police Tero in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Prachuap home games / Police Tero away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Prachuap play Police Tero?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Prachuap's recent matches and 40% of Police Tero's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Prachuap vs Police Tero usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Prachuap's matches and 60% of Police Tero's.
Do Prachuap and Police Tero tend to score early?
Prachuap have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Police Tero in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prachuap and Police Tero share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Prachuap and Police Tero finished level at 1-1 at Sam Ao Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Prachuap 1.23 xG and Police Tero 1.36 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Prachuap attack 0.77 / defence 1.34 against Police Tero attack 0.88 / defence 1.54, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Prachuap 34% | Draw 26% | Police Tero 40%, with Police Tero to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Prachuap 54%, Police Tero 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Prachuap's trading profile (13 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Police Tero's trading profile (13 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Police Tero arrived the stronger side — 1.23 PPG against 0.69. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Police Tero (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.