Prachuap 1-1 Lamphun Warrior – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Prachuap (67%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Prachuap face Lamphun Warrior.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Lamphun Warrior travel to Sam Ao Stadium to take on Prachuap. The game is scheduled for Friday 7 November 2025, 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Prachuap have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: D W D W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Prachuap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Prachuap at Sam Ao Stadium this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sam Ao Stadium.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lamphun Warrior stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lamphun Warrior away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Prachuap carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Prachuap, 1 for Lamphun Warrior and 2 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 6 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2025, ended 2–1 with Prachuap winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Prachuap in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Lamphun Warrior in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Prachuap 50% versus Lamphun Warrior 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Prachuap 48% | Lamphun Warrior 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Prachuap 2.24 xG and Lamphun Warrior 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Prachuap attack 0.964 / defence 0.719 | Lamphun Warrior attack 1.010 / defence 1.530. League average goals — home 1.517 / away 1.212. Lamphun Warrior bring a strong defensive rating of 1.530 — this is suppressing Prachuap's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Prachuap's defence rating of 0.719 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 40 Prachuap games / 40 Lamphun Warrior games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Prachuap 67% | Draw 22% | Lamphun Warrior 12%. Fair-value odds: Prachuap 1.49 | Draw 4.55 | Lamphun Warrior 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Prachuap (67%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Prachuap at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.12 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Prachuap 40% | Lamphun Warrior 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Prachuap vs Lamphun Warrior | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Sam Ao Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 7 Nov 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Prachuap 67% | Draw 22% | Lamphun Warrior 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 54% | xG Prachuap 2.24 / Lamphun Warrior 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Prachuap attack 0.964 / def 0.719 | Lamphun Warrior attack 1.010 / def 1.530 | league avg home 1.517 / away 1.212 • Poisson stance: Prachuap (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.24
Prachuap xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Lamphun Warrior xG
54%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Prachuap vs Lamphun Warrior kick off?
Prachuap vs Lamphun Warrior kicked off at 12:00 on Friday 7 November 2025 at Sam Ao Stadium.
What was the final score in Prachuap vs Lamphun Warrior?
Prachuap 1 - 1 Lamphun Warrior.
Where is Prachuap vs Lamphun Warrior being played?
The match is being played at Sam Ao Stadium.
What competition is Prachuap vs Lamphun Warrior part of?
Prachuap vs Lamphun Warrior is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Prachuap vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our statistical model gives Prachuap a 67% chance of winning, Lamphun Warrior a 12% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Prachuap the favourite.
Will both teams score in Prachuap vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Prachuap and Lamphun Warrior will score (BTTS).
Will Prachuap vs Lamphun Warrior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Lamphun Warrior?
Record (6 meetings): Prachuap 3W | Draws 2 | Lamphun Warrior 1W.
What form are Prachuap and Lamphun Warrior in?
Prachuap (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-D-W-W. Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Prachuap's attack at 0.96x the league average against Lamphun Warrior's defence at 1.53x — combine the two and it projects 2.24 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lamphun Warrior's attack versus Prachuap's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Prachuap Win
67%
1.50
22%
4.64
12%
8.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.24
Prachuap xG
Total xG
3.12
0.88
Lamphun Warrior xG
1.50
67%
Home win
4.64
22%
Draw
8.45
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
41%
2.41
11%
9.37
Win to Nil
28%
3.62
1%
79.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.9 | 8.7 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 8.3 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.6 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Prachuap vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Prachuap and Lamphun Warrior expected to score?
The model projects 2.24 expected goals for Prachuap and 0.88 for Lamphun Warrior, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Prachuap vs Lamphun Warrior?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Prachuap come into this having played 40 games, going 16W 12D 12L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-W-W. The sample for Prachuap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lamphun Warrior sit at 1.08 PPG from 40 outings (10W 13D 17L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Lamphun Warrior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Prachuap carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of Lamphun Warrior — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Prachuap's home form reads 12W 6D 2L across 20 games on their own ground, a 2.10 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.50 PPG overall — Prachuap are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Lamphun Warrior have taken 0.75 points per game from 20 outings (3W 6D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Prachuap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Prachuap are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Lamphun Warrior are on 1.25 scored and 1.65 conceded.
Defensively: Prachuap have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Prachuap
Blended
Lamphun Warrior
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Prachuap and Lamphun Warrior in coming into this match?
Prachuap have gone 16W 12D 12L in their last 40 games (1.50 PPG), while Lamphun Warrior have gone 10W 13D 17L in their last 40 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Prachuap at home or Lamphun Warrior away?
Prachuap's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Prachuap at home: 2.10 PPG; Lamphun Warrior away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Prachuap or Lamphun Warrior been keeping clean sheets recently?
Prachuap have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Lamphun Warrior in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Prachuap and Lamphun Warrior runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Prachuap's record when hosting Lamphun Warrior specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Prachuap
4
Draws
1
Lamphun Warrior
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Lamphun Warrior?
From 8 meetings on record, Prachuap have won 3, Lamphun Warrior have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Prachuap and Lamphun Warrior last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Lamphun Warrior 1-1 Prachuap.
Who has won more matches between Prachuap and Lamphun Warrior?
Prachuap have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 65% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Lamphun Warrior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Prachuap 40%, Lamphun Warrior 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Prachuap) and 55% (Lamphun Warrior). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Prachuap keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Lamphun Warrior in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Prachuap home games / Lamphun Warrior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Prachuap play Lamphun Warrior?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Prachuap's recent matches and 55% of Lamphun Warrior's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Prachuap vs Lamphun Warrior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Prachuap's matches and 55% of Lamphun Warrior's.
Do Prachuap and Lamphun Warrior tend to score early?
Prachuap have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Lamphun Warrior in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prachuap and Lamphun Warrior share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Sam Ao Stadium, Regular Season - 11, as Prachuap and Lamphun Warrior drew 1-1 in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Prachuap 2.24 xG and Lamphun Warrior 0.88 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Prachuap fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Prachuap attack 0.96 / defence 0.72 against Lamphun Warrior attack 1.01 / defence 1.53, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Prachuap 67% | Draw 22% | Lamphun Warrior 12%, with Prachuap to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Prachuap 48%, Lamphun Warrior 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Prachuap's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Prachuap arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Prachuap (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.95 scoring average — below par going forward. Lamphun Warrior (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.