Prachuap 2-0 Lamphun Warrior – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Prachuap at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Prachuap vs Lamphun Warrior fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Lamphun Warrior travel to Sam Ao Stadium to take on Prachuap. The game is scheduled for Sunday 5 May 2024, 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Prachuap have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: D W L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Prachuap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Prachuap at Sam Ao Stadium this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lamphun Warrior stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lamphun Warrior away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Prachuap) versus 1.20 (Lamphun Warrior). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Prachuap register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Lamphun Warrior in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Prachuap, 1 for Lamphun Warrior and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.3 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 10 Dec 2023, ended 1–2 with Lamphun Warrior winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Prachuap in-play and half-time data (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Lamphun Warrior in-play and half-time data (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Prachuap 66% versus Lamphun Warrior 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Prachuap 52% | Lamphun Warrior 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Prachuap 1.43 xG and Lamphun Warrior 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Prachuap attack 0.869 / defence 0.896 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.974 / defence 0.989. League average goals — home 1.665 / away 1.188. Data: 56 Prachuap games / 56 Lamphun Warrior games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Prachuap 46% | Draw 28% | Lamphun Warrior 27%. Fair-value odds: Prachuap 2.17 | Draw 3.57 | Lamphun Warrior 3.70. Prachuap hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Prachuap at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Prachuap offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. This conflicts with form data: Prachuap 70% | Lamphun Warrior 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Prachuap vs Lamphun Warrior | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Sam Ao Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Prachuap 46% | Draw 28% | Lamphun Warrior 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Prachuap 1.43 / Lamphun Warrior 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Prachuap attack 0.869 / def 0.896 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.974 / def 0.989 | league avg home 1.665 / away 1.188 • Poisson stance: Prachuap (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Prachuap xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Lamphun Warrior xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Prachuap vs Lamphun Warrior kick off?
Prachuap vs Lamphun Warrior kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 5 May 2024 at Sam Ao Stadium.
What was the final score in Prachuap vs Lamphun Warrior?
Prachuap 2 - 0 Lamphun Warrior.
Where is Prachuap vs Lamphun Warrior being played?
The match is being played at Sam Ao Stadium.
What competition is Prachuap vs Lamphun Warrior part of?
Prachuap vs Lamphun Warrior is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Prachuap vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our statistical model gives Prachuap a 46% chance of winning, Lamphun Warrior a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Prachuap the favourite.
Will both teams score in Prachuap vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Prachuap and Lamphun Warrior will score (BTTS).
Will Prachuap vs Lamphun Warrior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Lamphun Warrior?
Record (3 meetings): Prachuap 1W | Draws 1 | Lamphun Warrior 1W.
What form are Prachuap and Lamphun Warrior in?
Prachuap (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Prachuap's attack at 0.87x the league average against Lamphun Warrior's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lamphun Warrior's attack versus Prachuap's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 0-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Prachuap Win
46%
2.19
28%
3.63
27%
3.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Prachuap xG
Total xG
2.47
1.04
Lamphun Warrior xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
3.73
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
24%
4.18
Win to Nil
16%
6.18
6%
15.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 12.6 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.0 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Prachuap vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Prachuap and Lamphun Warrior expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Prachuap and 1.04 for Lamphun Warrior, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Prachuap vs Lamphun Warrior?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Prachuap come into this having played 56 games, going 15W 17D 24L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-D. The sample for Prachuap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lamphun Warrior sit at 1.20 PPG from 56 outings (17W 16D 23L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Lamphun Warrior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Prachuap on 1.11 PPG, Lamphun Warrior on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Prachuap's home form reads 12W 7D 8L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.59 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.11 PPG overall — Prachuap are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Lamphun Warrior have taken 0.74 points per game from 27 outings (4W 8D 15L). That's a step down from their 1.20 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lamphun Warrior's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Prachuap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Prachuap are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Lamphun Warrior are on 1.18 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Prachuap have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 56 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Prachuap
Blended
Lamphun Warrior
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Prachuap and Lamphun Warrior in coming into this match?
Prachuap have gone 15W 17D 24L in their last 56 games (1.11 PPG), while Lamphun Warrior have gone 17W 16D 23L in their last 56 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Prachuap at home or Lamphun Warrior away?
Prachuap's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Prachuap at home: 1.59 PPG; Lamphun Warrior away: 0.74 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Prachuap and Lamphun Warrior runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Prachuap's record when hosting Lamphun Warrior specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Prachuap
4
Draws
1
Lamphun Warrior
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Lamphun Warrior?
From 8 meetings on record, Prachuap have won 3, Lamphun Warrior have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Prachuap and Lamphun Warrior last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Lamphun Warrior 1-1 Prachuap.
Who has won more matches between Prachuap and Lamphun Warrior?
Prachuap have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Lamphun Warrior see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Prachuap 70%, Lamphun Warrior 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Prachuap) and 44% (Lamphun Warrior).
On the defensive side: Lamphun Warrior in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Prachuap home games / Lamphun Warrior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Prachuap play Lamphun Warrior?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Prachuap's games and 41% of Lamphun Warrior's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Prachuap vs Lamphun Warrior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Prachuap's recent games and 44% of Lamphun Warrior's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Prachuap and Lamphun Warrior tend to score early?
Prachuap have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Lamphun Warrior in 48% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prachuap cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Lamphun Warrior.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Prachuap beat Lamphun Warrior 2-0 at Sam Ao Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Prachuap 1.43 xG and Lamphun Warrior 1.04 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Lamphun Warrior landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Prachuap attack 0.87 / defence 0.90 against Lamphun Warrior attack 0.97 / defence 0.99, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Prachuap 46% | Draw 28% | Lamphun Warrior 27%, with Prachuap to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Prachuap 52%, Lamphun Warrior 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Prachuap's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Prachuap 1.11 PPG, Lamphun Warrior 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Prachuap win broke the near-deadlock. Prachuap (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. Lamphun Warrior (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.81 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.