Prachuap vs Buriram United – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Prachuap at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Prachuap vs Buriram United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 21 as Prachuap welcome Buriram United to Sam Ao Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 13 March 2027 at 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Prachuap have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Prachuap have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Prachuap have posted 5W 4D 1L at Sam Ao Stadium — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Buriram United stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Buriram United haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Buriram United have posted 6W 2D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Prachuap) versus 2.00 (Buriram United). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
Buriram United have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 8 of the last 10 encounters against Prachuap's 1 victories.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Jan 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Buriram United have won 8 of 10 previous encounters, and at 2.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Prachuap trading profile (30 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 21% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Buriram United trading profile (30 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Prachuap 47% versus Buriram United 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Prachuap 37% | Buriram United 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Prachuap 1.55 xG and Buriram United 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Prachuap attack 1.027 / defence 0.942 | Buriram United attack 1.151 / defence 1.013. League average goals — home 1.488 / away 0.956. Data: 30 Prachuap games / 30 Buriram United games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Prachuap 46% | Draw 31% | Buriram United 23%. Fair-value odds: Prachuap 2.17 | Draw 3.23 | Buriram United 4.35. Prachuap hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Prachuap at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Prachuap offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging only 2.7 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Prachuap 50% | Buriram United 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Prachuap vs Buriram United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Sam Ao Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Mar 2027, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Prachuap 46% | Draw 31% | Buriram United 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG Prachuap 1.55 / Buriram United 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Prachuap attack 1.027 / def 0.942 | Buriram United attack 1.151 / def 1.013 | league avg home 1.488 / away 0.956 • Poisson stance: Prachuap (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Prachuap xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Buriram United xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Prachuap vs Buriram United kick off?
Prachuap vs Buriram United is scheduled to kick off at 12:30 on Saturday 13 March 2027 at Sam Ao Stadium.
Where is Prachuap vs Buriram United being played?
The match is being played at Sam Ao Stadium.
What competition is Prachuap vs Buriram United part of?
Prachuap vs Buriram United is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Prachuap vs Buriram United?
Our statistical model gives Prachuap a 46% chance of winning, Buriram United a 23% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Prachuap the favourite.
Will both teams score in Prachuap vs Buriram United?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Prachuap and Buriram United will score (BTTS).
Will Prachuap vs Buriram United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Buriram United?
Record (10 meetings): Prachuap 1W | Draws 1 | Buriram United 8W.
What form are Prachuap and Buriram United in?
Prachuap (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Buriram United (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Prachuap's attack rating (1.03) and Buriram United's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.55 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Buriram United's attack versus Prachuap's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Prachuap Win
46%
2.16
31%
3.22
23%
4.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Prachuap xG
Total xG
2.58
1.04
Buriram United xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
4.43
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
21%
4.70
Win to Nil
16%
6.07
5%
20.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 7.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.1 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Prachuap vs Buriram United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Prachuap and Buriram United expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Prachuap and 1.04 for Buriram United, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Prachuap vs Buriram United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Prachuap come into this having played 30 games, going 11W 11D 8L for 1.47 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Prachuap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Buriram United sit at 2.33 PPG from 30 outings (22W 4D 4L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-D across their last five. Buriram United haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Buriram United carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.86 PPG clear of Prachuap — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Prachuap's home form reads 8W 5D 1L across 14 games on their own ground, a 2.07 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.47 PPG overall — Prachuap are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Buriram United have taken 2.07 points per game from 14 outings (9W 2D 3L).
The Goals Picture
Prachuap are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Buriram United are on 2.53 scored and 1.03 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Buriram United in 60%.
Last 30 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Prachuap
Early Season
Buriram United
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Prachuap and Buriram United in coming into this match?
Prachuap have gone 11W 11D 8L in their last 30 games (1.47 PPG), while Buriram United have gone 22W 4D 4L in their last 30 (2.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Prachuap at home or Buriram United away?
Prachuap's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Prachuap at home: 2.07 PPG; Buriram United away: 2.07 PPG.
Have Prachuap or Buriram United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Prachuap have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Buriram United in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Prachuap and Buriram United runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 4 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Sep 2024, when Buriram United won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Prachuap's record when hosting Buriram United specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Prachuap
1
Draws
8
Buriram United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Buriram United?
From 10 meetings on record, Prachuap have won 1, Buriram United have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Prachuap and Buriram United last play each other?
They last met on 4 January 2026, when Prachuap 1-1 Buriram United.
Who has won more matches between Prachuap and Buriram United?
Buriram United have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Buriram United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Prachuap 36%, Buriram United 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 21% (Prachuap) and 79% (Buriram United).
On the defensive side: Prachuap keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Prachuap home games / Buriram United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Prachuap play Buriram United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Prachuap's recent matches and 64% of Buriram United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Prachuap vs Buriram United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 21% of Prachuap's recent games and 79% of Buriram United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Prachuap and Buriram United tend to score early?
Prachuap have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Buriram United in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.