Prachuap vs Buriram United – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Buriram United at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Prachuap vs Buriram United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 21 as Prachuap welcome Buriram United to Sam Ao Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 13 March 2027 at 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Prachuap have gone 7W 0D 3L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Prachuap have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Prachuap have posted 7W 3D 0L at Sam Ao Stadium — 2.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sam Ao Stadium.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Buriram United stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Buriram United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Buriram United have posted 7W 1D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.10 PPG (Prachuap) versus 2.00 (Buriram United). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
Buriram United have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 8 of the last 10 encounters against Prachuap's 1 victories.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Jan 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Buriram United have won 8 of 10 previous encounters, and at 2.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Prachuap trading profile (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games).
Buriram United trading profile (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Prachuap 49% versus Buriram United 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Prachuap 43% | Buriram United 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Prachuap 1.08 xG and Buriram United 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Prachuap attack 1.000 / defence 0.836 | Buriram United attack 1.082 / defence 0.744. League average goals — home 1.457 / away 1.292. Buriram United's defence strength of 0.744 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 35 Prachuap games / 35 Buriram United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Prachuap 33% | Draw 31% | Buriram United 37%. Fair-value odds: Prachuap 3.03 | Draw 3.23 | Buriram United 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Buriram United at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Buriram United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.25 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Prachuap 50% | Buriram United 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Prachuap vs Buriram United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Sam Ao Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Mar 2027, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Prachuap 33% | Draw 31% | Buriram United 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 47% | xG Prachuap 1.08 / Buriram United 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Prachuap attack 1.000 / def 0.836 | Buriram United attack 1.082 / def 0.744 | league avg home 1.457 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: Buriram United (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Prachuap xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Buriram United xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Prachuap vs Buriram United kick off?
Prachuap vs Buriram United is scheduled to kick off at 12:30 on Saturday 13 March 2027 at Sam Ao Stadium.
Where is Prachuap vs Buriram United being played?
The match is being played at Sam Ao Stadium.
What competition is Prachuap vs Buriram United part of?
Prachuap vs Buriram United is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Prachuap vs Buriram United?
Our statistical model gives Prachuap a 33% chance of winning, Buriram United a 37% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Buriram United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Prachuap vs Buriram United?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Prachuap and Buriram United will score (BTTS).
Will Prachuap vs Buriram United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Buriram United?
Record (10 meetings): Prachuap 1W | Draws 1 | Buriram United 8W.
What form are Prachuap and Buriram United in?
Prachuap (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Buriram United (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Prachuap's attack rating (1.00) and Buriram United's defence rating (0.74), the model arrives at 1.08 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Buriram United's attack versus Prachuap's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 0-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Buriram United Win
33%
3.06
31%
3.27
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Prachuap xG
Total xG
2.25
1.17
Buriram United xG
3.06
33%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
34%
2.96
Win to Nil
10%
9.85
12%
8.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 12.3 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.3 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.2 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Prachuap vs Buriram United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Prachuap and Buriram United expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Prachuap and 1.17 for Buriram United, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Prachuap vs Buriram United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Prachuap come into this having played 35 games, going 15W 12D 8L for 1.63 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Prachuap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Buriram United sit at 2.37 PPG from 35 outings (26W 5D 4L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Buriram United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Buriram United carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.74 PPG clear of Prachuap — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Prachuap's home form reads 10W 6D 1L across 17 games on their own ground, a 2.12 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.63 PPG overall — Prachuap are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Buriram United have taken 2.24 points per game from 17 outings (12W 2D 3L).
The Goals Picture
Prachuap are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Buriram United are on 2.43 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Buriram United in 60%.
Last 35 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Prachuap
Early Season
Buriram United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Prachuap and Buriram United in coming into this match?
Prachuap have gone 15W 12D 8L in their last 35 games (1.63 PPG), while Buriram United have gone 26W 5D 4L in their last 35 (2.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Prachuap at home or Buriram United away?
Buriram United's away record (2.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Prachuap at home: 2.12 PPG; Buriram United away: 2.24 PPG.
Have Prachuap or Buriram United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Prachuap have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Buriram United in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Prachuap and Buriram United runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 4 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Sep 2024, when Buriram United won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Prachuap's record when hosting Buriram United specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Prachuap
1
Draws
8
Buriram United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Buriram United?
From 10 meetings on record, Prachuap have won 1, Buriram United have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Prachuap and Buriram United last play each other?
They last met on 4 January 2026, when Prachuap 1-1 Buriram United.
Who has won more matches between Prachuap and Buriram United?
Buriram United have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Buriram United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Prachuap 41%, Buriram United 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Prachuap) and 71% (Buriram United).
On the defensive side: Prachuap keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Buriram United in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Prachuap home games / Buriram United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Prachuap play Buriram United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Prachuap's recent matches and 59% of Buriram United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Prachuap vs Buriram United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Prachuap's recent games and 71% of Buriram United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Prachuap and Buriram United tend to score early?
Prachuap have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Buriram United in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.