Port FC 1-1 Rayong FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Port FC at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Port FC vs Rayong FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
PAT Stadium plays host to Port FC versus Rayong FC in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Saturday 30 August 2025 at 13:30 UTC.
Current Form
Port FC's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Port FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at PAT Stadium, Port FC have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Rayong FC (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: W W L L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Rayong FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Rayong FC away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Port FC's 1.50 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Rayong FC's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Port FC register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Rayong FC in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Port FC 2W, Rayong FC 0W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Apr 2025, ended 4–1 with Port FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Port FC — key trading statistics (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Rayong FC — key trading statistics (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Port FC 69% and Rayong FC 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port FC 59% | Rayong FC 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port FC 2.18 xG and Rayong FC 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port FC attack 1.123 / defence 0.909 | Rayong FC attack 1.046 / defence 1.139. League average goals — home 1.703 / away 1.426. Data: 32 Port FC games / 32 Rayong FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Port FC 56% | Draw 21% | Rayong FC 23%. Fair-value odds: Port FC 1.79 | Draw 4.76 | Rayong FC 4.35. The model has a clear lean to Port FC (56%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.53. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.53 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.18 / 1.35) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Port FC at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.53 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Port FC 80% | Rayong FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port FC vs Rayong FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: PAT Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Aug 2025, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port FC 56% | Draw 21% | Rayong FC 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 66% | xG Port FC 2.18 / Rayong FC 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Port FC attack 1.123 / def 0.909 | Rayong FC attack 1.046 / def 1.139 | league avg home 1.703 / away 1.426 • Poisson stance: Port FC (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.18
Port FC xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Rayong FC xG
66%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port FC vs Rayong FC kick off?
Port FC vs Rayong FC kicked off at 13:30 on Saturday 30 August 2025 at PAT Stadium.
What was the final score in Port FC vs Rayong FC?
Port FC 1 - 1 Rayong FC.
Where is Port FC vs Rayong FC being played?
The match is being played at PAT Stadium.
What competition is Port FC vs Rayong FC part of?
Port FC vs Rayong FC is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Port FC vs Rayong FC?
Our statistical model gives Port FC a 56% chance of winning, Rayong FC a 23% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port FC vs Rayong FC?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Port FC and Rayong FC will score (BTTS).
Will Port FC vs Rayong FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Rayong FC?
Record (2 meetings): Port FC 2W | Draws 0 | Rayong FC 0W.
What form are Port FC and Rayong FC in?
Port FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Rayong FC (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Port FC's attack at 1.12x the league average against Rayong FC's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 2.18 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Rayong FC's attack (1.05x) against Port FC's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
The sample (32/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
56%
1.80
21%
4.66
23%
4.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
2 – 0
6.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.18
Port FC xG
Total xG
3.53
1.35
Rayong FC xG
1.80
56%
Home win
4.66
21%
Draw
4.38
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.97
Clean Sheet
26%
3.88
11%
8.84
Win to Nil
14%
6.96
3%
38.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 8.6 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 6.8 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port FC vs Rayong FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Port FC and Rayong FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.18 expected goals for Port FC and 1.35 for Rayong FC, a combined total of 3.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Port FC vs Rayong FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Port FC's recent record stands at 14W 9D 9L from 32 games, a 1.59 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Port FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Rayong FC, meanwhile, have gone 8W 8D 16L across 32 games — 1.00 PPG, with W-W-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Rayong FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Port FC by 0.59 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Rayong FC heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Port FC have managed 8W 5D 3L from 16 games — 1.81 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rayong FC's away record stands at 3W 3D 10L across 16 trips, a 0.75 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Port FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Port FC are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Rayong FC are on 1.38 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Port FC have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; Rayong FC in 72%.
Last 32 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port FC
Early Season
Rayong FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Port FC and Rayong FC in coming into this match?
Port FC have gone 14W 9D 9L in their last 32 games (1.59 PPG), while Rayong FC have gone 8W 8D 16L in their last 32 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port FC at home or Rayong FC away?
Port FC's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port FC at home: 1.81 PPG; Rayong FC away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Port FC won 4-1 on 30 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Port FC have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Rayong FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Port FC
1
Draws
1
Rayong FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Rayong FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Port FC have won 2, Rayong FC have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Port FC and Rayong FC last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Rayong FC 5-2 Port FC.
Who has won more matches between Port FC and Rayong FC?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Rayong FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 75% for Port FC, 62% for Rayong FC — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Port FC and 69% for Rayong FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port FC home games / Rayong FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Port FC play Rayong FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Port FC's games and 62% of Rayong FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Port FC vs Rayong FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Port FC's matches and 69% of Rayong FC's.
Do Port FC and Rayong FC tend to score early?
Port FC have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Rayong FC in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Port FC and Rayong FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at PAT Stadium, Regular Season - 3, as Port FC and Rayong FC drew 1-1 in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Port FC 2.18 xG and Rayong FC 1.35 xG, a combined 3.53. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Port FC fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port FC attack 1.12 / defence 0.91 against Rayong FC attack 1.05 / defence 1.14, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Port FC 56% | Draw 21% | Rayong FC 23%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port FC 59%, Rayong FC 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Port FC's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Rayong FC's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Port FC arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Port FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.06 scoring average — below par going forward. Rayong FC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.