Port FC 2-1 Ratchaburi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Port FC at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Port FC vs Ratchaburi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Ratchaburi travel to PAT Stadium to take on Port FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 24 January 2026, 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Port FC — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Port FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Port FC's form when playing at home: 7W 3D 0L across 10 games at PAT Stadium this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at PAT Stadium.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ratchaburi stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Ratchaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ratchaburi away from home this season: 8W 0D 2L from 10 away games — 2.40 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Port FC 2.00 PPG, Ratchaburi 2.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Port FC, 2 for Ratchaburi and 4 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2025, ended 0–1 with Ratchaburi winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Port FC in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Ratchaburi in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Port FC 55% versus Ratchaburi 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port FC 51% | Ratchaburi 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port FC 1.99 xG and Ratchaburi 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port FC attack 1.425 / defence 0.754 | Ratchaburi attack 1.383 / defence 0.902. League average goals — home 1.548 / away 1.089. Port FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.425 — their λ of 1.99 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Ratchaburi have an above-average attack strength of 1.383 — the away xG of 1.14 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Port FC's defence rating of 0.754 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 47 Port FC games / 47 Ratchaburi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Port FC 57% | Draw 22% | Ratchaburi 21%. Fair-value odds: Port FC 1.75 | Draw 4.55 | Ratchaburi 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Port FC (57%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Port FC are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.12 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Port FC 50% | Ratchaburi 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port FC vs Ratchaburi | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: PAT Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Jan 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port FC 57% | Draw 22% | Ratchaburi 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 59% | xG Port FC 1.99 / Ratchaburi 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Port FC attack 1.425 / def 0.754 | Ratchaburi attack 1.383 / def 0.902 | league avg home 1.548 / away 1.089 • Poisson stance: Port FC (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.99
Port FC xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Ratchaburi xG
59%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port FC vs Ratchaburi kick off?
Port FC vs Ratchaburi kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 24 January 2026 at PAT Stadium.
What was the final score in Port FC vs Ratchaburi?
Port FC 2 - 1 Ratchaburi.
Where is Port FC vs Ratchaburi being played?
The match is being played at PAT Stadium.
What competition is Port FC vs Ratchaburi part of?
Port FC vs Ratchaburi is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Port FC vs Ratchaburi?
Our statistical model gives Port FC a 57% chance of winning, Ratchaburi a 21% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port FC vs Ratchaburi?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Port FC and Ratchaburi will score (BTTS).
Will Port FC vs Ratchaburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Ratchaburi?
Record (9 meetings): Port FC 3W | Draws 4 | Ratchaburi 2W.
What form are Port FC and Ratchaburi in?
Port FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Ratchaburi (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Port FC's attacking strength (1.43x league average) is weighed against Ratchaburi's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.99. The same calculation in reverse, Ratchaburi's attack versus Port FC's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
57%
1.76
22%
4.47
21%
4.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.99
Port FC xG
Total xG
3.12
1.14
Ratchaburi xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.47
22%
Draw
4.78
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
14%
7.31
Win to Nil
18%
5.48
3%
34.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 9.9 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.9 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.5 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port FC vs Ratchaburi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Port FC and Ratchaburi expected to score?
The model projects 1.99 expected goals for Port FC and 1.14 for Ratchaburi, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Port FC vs Ratchaburi?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 47 outings, Port FC have picked up 1.66 PPG on a 22W 12D 13L record — W-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Port FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ratchaburi's form line: 26W 9D 12L from 47 games, 1.85 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W. The sample for Ratchaburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Port FC on 1.66 PPG, Ratchaburi on 1.85. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Port FC have posted 1.91 PPG from 23 outings (12W 8D 3L).
On the road, Ratchaburi have gone 12W 3D 8L from 23 away games — 1.70 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Port FC are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Ratchaburi are on 1.96 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port FC
Blended
Ratchaburi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Port FC and Ratchaburi in coming into this match?
Port FC have gone 22W 12D 13L in their last 47 games (1.66 PPG), while Ratchaburi have gone 26W 9D 12L in their last 47 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port FC at home or Ratchaburi away?
Port FC's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port FC at home: 1.91 PPG; Ratchaburi away: 1.70 PPG.
Have Port FC or Ratchaburi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Port FC have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Ratchaburi in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Dec 2023, when Port FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Port FC's record when hosting Ratchaburi specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Port FC
4
Draws
2
Ratchaburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Ratchaburi?
From 10 meetings on record, Port FC have won 4, Ratchaburi have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Port FC and Ratchaburi last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Port FC 2-1 Ratchaburi.
Who has won more matches between Port FC and Ratchaburi?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Ratchaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Port FC 61%, Ratchaburi 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Port FC) and 61% (Ratchaburi). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Port FC keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Ratchaburi in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port FC home games / Ratchaburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Port FC play Ratchaburi?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Port FC's games and 61% of Ratchaburi's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Port FC vs Ratchaburi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Port FC's matches and 61% of Ratchaburi's.
Do Port FC and Ratchaburi tend to score early?
Port FC have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Ratchaburi in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Port FC edge out Ratchaburi 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port FC beat Ratchaburi 2-1 at PAT Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Port FC 1.99 xG and Ratchaburi 1.14 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port FC attack 1.43 / defence 0.75 against Ratchaburi attack 1.38 / defence 0.90, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Port FC 57% | Draw 22% | Ratchaburi 21%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port FC 51%, Ratchaburi 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Port FC's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Ratchaburi's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Port FC 1.66 PPG, Ratchaburi 1.85 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Port FC win broke the near-deadlock. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.09 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.