Port FC 2-3 Muangthong United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Port FC at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Port FC vs Muangthong United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Port FC host Muangthong United at PAT Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 5 March 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Port FC — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D D L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Port FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at PAT Stadium, Port FC have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Port FC are significantly better at PAT Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Muangthong United have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Muangthong United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Muangthong United's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (1.20 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Port FC at 1.50 PPG versus Muangthong United's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Port FC have won 1, Muangthong United 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.3 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 9 Oct 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Port FC in-play tendencies (51 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Muangthong United in-play tendencies (51 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Port FC 59% and Muangthong United 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port FC 51% | Muangthong United 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port FC 1.57 xG and Muangthong United 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port FC attack 1.128 / defence 1.056 | Muangthong United attack 1.273 / defence 0.970. League average goals — home 1.438 / away 1.129. Muangthong United have an above-average attack strength of 1.273 — the away xG of 1.52 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 51 Port FC games / 51 Muangthong United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Port FC 38% | Draw 26% | Muangthong United 36%. Fair-value odds: Port FC 2.63 | Draw 3.85 | Muangthong United 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.57 / 1.52) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Port FC are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Port FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.09 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Port FC 90% | Muangthong United 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port FC vs Muangthong United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: PAT Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Mar 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port FC 38% | Draw 26% | Muangthong United 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 63% | xG Port FC 1.57 / Muangthong United 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Port FC attack 1.128 / def 1.056 | Muangthong United attack 1.273 / def 0.970 | league avg home 1.438 / away 1.129 • Poisson stance: Port FC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Port FC xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Muangthong United xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port FC vs Muangthong United kick off?
Port FC vs Muangthong United kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 5 March 2023 at PAT Stadium.
What was the final score in Port FC vs Muangthong United?
Port FC 2 - 3 Muangthong United.
Where is Port FC vs Muangthong United being played?
The match is being played at PAT Stadium.
What competition is Port FC vs Muangthong United part of?
Port FC vs Muangthong United is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Port FC vs Muangthong United?
Our statistical model gives Port FC a 38% chance of winning, Muangthong United a 36% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port FC vs Muangthong United?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Port FC and Muangthong United will score (BTTS).
Will Port FC vs Muangthong United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Muangthong United?
Record (3 meetings): Port FC 1W | Draws 1 | Muangthong United 1W.
What form are Port FC and Muangthong United in?
Port FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-W-W. Muangthong United (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Port FC's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against Muangthong United's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.57. The same calculation in reverse, Muangthong United's attack versus Port FC's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
38%
2.62
26%
3.82
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Port FC xG
Total xG
3.09
1.52
Muangthong United xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.71
Clean Sheet
22%
4.56
21%
4.83
Win to Nil
8%
11.96
7%
13.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 6.9 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 10.9 | 8.2 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.5 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port FC vs Muangthong United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Port FC and Muangthong United expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Port FC and 1.52 for Muangthong United, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Port FC vs Muangthong United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Port FC's recent record stands at 19W 15D 17L from 51 games, a 1.41 PPG return, with D-D-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Port FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Muangthong United, meanwhile, have gone 20W 18D 13L across 51 games — 1.53 PPG, with W-L-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Muangthong United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Port FC on 1.41 PPG, Muangthong United on 1.53. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Port FC have managed 14W 7D 5L from 26 games — 1.88 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.41 PPG overall — Port FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Muangthong United's away record stands at 6W 9D 11L across 26 trips, a 1.04 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.53 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Muangthong United's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Port FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Port FC are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Muangthong United are on 1.65 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Muangthong United in 63%.
Last 51 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port FC
Blended
Muangthong United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Port FC and Muangthong United in coming into this match?
Port FC have gone 19W 15D 17L in their last 51 games (1.41 PPG), while Muangthong United have gone 20W 18D 13L in their last 51 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port FC at home or Muangthong United away?
Port FC's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port FC at home: 1.88 PPG; Muangthong United away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Port FC or Muangthong United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Port FC have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Muangthong United in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Port FC and Muangthong United runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Port FC's record when hosting Muangthong United specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Port FC
3
Draws
2
Muangthong United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Muangthong United?
From 10 meetings on record, Port FC have won 5, Muangthong United have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Port FC and Muangthong United last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Muangthong United 0-0 Port FC.
Who has won more matches between Port FC and Muangthong United?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Muangthong United see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Port FC 54%, Muangthong United 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Port FC) and 38% (Muangthong United).
On the defensive side: Port FC keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Muangthong United in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port FC home games / Muangthong United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Port FC play Muangthong United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Port FC's recent matches and 54% of Muangthong United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Port FC vs Muangthong United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Port FC's recent games and 38% of Muangthong United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Port FC and Muangthong United tend to score early?
Port FC have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Muangthong United in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Muangthong United defy the odds to beat Port FC 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Muangthong United beat Port FC 2-3 at PAT Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Port FC 1.57 xG and Muangthong United 1.52 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Muangthong United outscored their 1.52 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port FC attack 1.13 / defence 1.06 against Muangthong United attack 1.27 / defence 0.97, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Port FC 38% | Draw 26% | Muangthong United 36%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Muangthong United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port FC 51%, Muangthong United 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Port FC's trading profile (51 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Muangthong United's trading profile (51 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Port FC 1.41 PPG, Muangthong United 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Muangthong United win broke the near-deadlock. Port FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Muangthong United (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.