Port FC 2-1 Lamphun Warrior – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Port FC at 50% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Port FC face Lamphun Warrior.

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Fixture Analysis

Port FC welcome Lamphun Warrior to PAT Stadium in Thai League 1 (matchday 13). Kick-off is Wednesday 8 January 2025 at 12:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Port FC — last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W D L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Port FC's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Port FC are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Lamphun Warrior stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

When travelling, Lamphun Warrior have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Port FC at 1.40 PPG versus Lamphun Warrior's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Port FC have won 1, Lamphun Warrior 1, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.2 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 30 Mar 2024, ended Port FC 2–2 Lamphun Warrior — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Port FC in-play and half-time data (last 44 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 56%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.

Lamphun Warrior in-play and half-time data (last 44 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Port FC 70% and Lamphun Warrior 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port FC 66% | Lamphun Warrior 59%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Port FC surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while Lamphun Warrior have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 36% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Port FC 1.68 xG and Lamphun Warrior 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port FC attack 1.066 / defence 0.905 | Lamphun Warrior attack 1.034 / defence 0.930. League average goals — home 1.692 / away 1.146. Data: built from Port FC's last 44 games and Lamphun Warrior's last 44.

Result probabilities: Port FC 50% | Draw 28% | Lamphun Warrior 22%. Fair-value odds: Port FC 2.01 | Draw 3.58 | Lamphun Warrior 4.45. Port FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Port FC as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Port FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Port FC's last 10 home games and Lamphun Warrior's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Port FC 60% (last 10 home games) | Lamphun Warrior 40% (last 10 away games).

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