Port FC 2-0 Khon Kaen United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Port FC at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Port FC vs Khon Kaen United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Port FC host Khon Kaen United at PAT Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 18 September 2021 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Port FC stand at 0W 2D 0L from 2 Thai League 1 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Port FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Khon Kaen United — All Games: 1W 0D 1L from 2 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Khon Kaen United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Khon Kaen United — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port FC 1.67 xG and Khon Kaen United 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port FC attack 1.119 / defence 1.342 | Khon Kaen United attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.295 / away 1.451. Data: 2 Port FC games / 2 Khon Kaen United games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Port FC 36% | Draw 29% | Khon Kaen United 35%. Fair-value odds: Port FC 2.78 | Draw 3.45 | Khon Kaen United 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.32 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.67 / 1.65) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Port FC as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Khon Kaen United (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Port FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.32 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port FC vs Khon Kaen United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: PAT Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Sep 2021, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port FC 36% | Draw 29% | Khon Kaen United 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 69% | xG Port FC 1.67 / Khon Kaen United 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: Port FC attack 1.119 / def 1.342 | Khon Kaen United attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.295 / away 1.451 • Poisson stance: Port FC (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Port FC xG
Expected Goals
1.65
Khon Kaen United xG
69%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port FC vs Khon Kaen United kick off?
Port FC vs Khon Kaen United kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 18 September 2021 at PAT Stadium.
What was the final score in Port FC vs Khon Kaen United?
Port FC 2 - 0 Khon Kaen United.
Where is Port FC vs Khon Kaen United being played?
The match is being played at PAT Stadium.
What competition is Port FC vs Khon Kaen United part of?
Port FC vs Khon Kaen United is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Port FC vs Khon Kaen United?
Our statistical model gives Port FC a 36% chance of winning, Khon Kaen United a 35% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port FC vs Khon Kaen United?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Port FC and Khon Kaen United will score (BTTS).
Will Port FC vs Khon Kaen United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Khon Kaen United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Port FC and Khon Kaen United in?
Port FC (all comps): 0W-2D-0L in 2 | 1.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-D. Khon Kaen United (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Port FC's attack rating (1.12) and Khon Kaen United's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.67 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Khon Kaen United's attack versus Port FC's defence, projects 1.65 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.3%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
36%
2.79
29%
3.46
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Port FC xG
Total xG
3.32
1.65
Khon Kaen United xG
2.79
36%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.46
31%
BTTS No
3.18
Clean Sheet
19%
5.23
19%
5.29
Win to Nil
7%
14.60
7%
15.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 6.0 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.0 | 8.2 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.3 | 6.9 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.6 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port FC vs Khon Kaen United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Port FC and Khon Kaen United expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Port FC and 1.65 for Khon Kaen United, a combined total of 3.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Port FC vs Khon Kaen United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Port FC come into this having played 2 games, going 0W 2D 0L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-D. It's still early in the season for Port FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Khon Kaen United sit at 1.50 PPG from 2 outings (1W 0D 1L), a run that reads L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Khon Kaen United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Khon Kaen United carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Port FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
Port FC are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Khon Kaen United are on 1.00 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Port FC have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games.
Last 2 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port FC
Early Season
Khon Kaen United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Port FC and Khon Kaen United in coming into this match?
Port FC have gone 0W 2D 0L in their last 2 games (1.00 PPG), while Khon Kaen United have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 (1.50 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Port FC and Khon Kaen United runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Sep 2023, when Port FC won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Port FC's record when hosting Khon Kaen United specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Port FC
2
Draws
2
Khon Kaen United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Khon Kaen United?
From 8 meetings on record, Port FC have won 4, Khon Kaen United have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Port FC and Khon Kaen United last play each other?
They last met on 15 January 2025, when Port FC 1-2 Khon Kaen United.
Who has won more matches between Port FC and Khon Kaen United?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port FC home games / Khon Kaen United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Port FC play Khon Kaen United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Port FC's games and 50% of Khon Kaen United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Port FC vs Khon Kaen United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Port FC's recent games and 50% of Khon Kaen United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Port FC and Khon Kaen United tend to score early?
Port FC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Khon Kaen United in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Port FC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Khon Kaen United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port FC beat Khon Kaen United 2-0 at PAT Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Port FC 1.67 xG and Khon Kaen United 1.65 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Khon Kaen United landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port FC attack 1.12 / defence 1.34 against Khon Kaen United attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Port FC 36% | Draw 29% | Khon Kaen United 35%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port FC 50%, Khon Kaen United 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Khon Kaen United arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Port FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Port FC conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Khon Kaen United managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.